US embassy cable - 90MOGADISHU10384

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOGADISHU 10384 
 
 
DEPT FOR INR/B, INR/DB 
 
E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR 
TAGS: PINR, SO 
SUBJECT: LEADER OF SOMALI DEMOCRATIC MOVEMENT EXPLAINS 
HIMSELF 
 
REF:  MOGADISHU 10239 
 
1.  CONFIDENTIAL--ENTIRE TEXT. 
 
2.  SUMMARY:  THE ELDERLY RAHENWEYNE LEADER WHO HEADS THE 
SOMALI DEMOCRATIC MOVEMENY  (SDM) SAID HE HAD BROKEN 
A PROMISE WITH SIAD BARRE AND ENTERED THE POLITICAL 
FRAY BECAUSE THE CURRENT REGIME IS EXPIRING AND HE 
DID NOT WANT HIS TRIBE TO MISS OUT IN THE COMPETITION 
FOR POLITICAL POWER.  HE EXPECTED TO ATTEND THE CAIRO 
CONFERENCE AS A MEMBER OF THE MANIFESTO GROUP'S 
DELEGATION.  HE WAS PESSIMISTIC ABOUT HIS COUNTRY'S 
FUTURE AND ANXIOUS FOR MORE AMERICAN INVOLVEMENT. 
END SUMMARY. 
 
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3.  BIOGRAPHICS:  ABDULCADIR MOHAMED ADEN (RAHENWEYNE) 
WAS BORN ABOUT 70 YEARS AGO IN BOULA BERTE, WHERE HIS 
FATHER WAS A COLONIAL POLICEMAN.  A MEMBER OF THE 
RAHENWEYNE TRIBE, HE GREW UP IN MOGADISHU AFTER HIS 
FATHER'S TRANSFER TO THE CAPITAL.  HE BECAME KNOWN AS 
ZOPPO, OR GIMP, DUE TO A PARTIALLY CRIPPLED LEG. 
THE YOUNG SOMALIS' ASPIRATIONS TO STUDY ABROAD WERE 
FRUSTRATED BY THE FASCIST REGIME. 
 
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4.  ZOPPO ENTERED POLITICS DURING THE BRITISH 
OCCUPATION AND BECAME PROMINENT DURING THE 
SUBSEQUENT ITALIAN TRUSTEESHIP.  CONSIDERED BY 
THEM A LEADER OF HIS TRIBE, ZOPPO WAS NAMED 
MINISTER OF FINANCE BY THE FIRST INDEPENDENT 
GOVERNMENT, SHIFTING TO THE MINISTRY OF THE 
INTERIOR IN 1964.  HE LEFT THAT POSITION THREE YEARS 
LATER.  ZOPPO CLAIMED, AT A MEETING WITH ME NOVEMBER 
28, TO HAVE HELPED FINANCE SIAD BARRE'S COUP IN 1969. 
IN ANY CASE, HE WAS NOT LOCKED UP THEREAFTER, THE 
FATE OF MANY OTHER PROMINENT POLITICIANS.  HE SAID 
THAT HE AND THE NEW PRESIDENT STRUCK A BARGAIN. 
SIAD PROMISED ZOPPO HE WOULD NOT BE ARRESTED, PROVIDED 
HE AND THE RAHENWEYNE WHO FOLLOWED HIS LEADERSHIP 
REFRAINED FROM OPPOSITION OR OTHER FORMS OF POLITICAL 
ACTIVITY. 
 
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5.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW YEARS SPENT IN KENYA, 
WHEN ZOPPO WAS FEARFUL THAT SIAD'S ADOPTION OF SCIENTIFIC 
SOCIALISM BODED ILL FOR A PROMINENT AND SUCCESSFUL 
CAPITALIST, HE HAS CONTINUED TO RESIDE IN MOGADISHU. 
ACCORDING TO THE RAHENWEYNE ELDER, WHEN SIAD 
DECIDED TO SEEK A REAPPROACHMENT WITH THE UNITED 
STATES, THE PRESIDENT COMMISSIONED HIM TO OPEN 
CHANNELS TO WASHINGTON.  HE CLAIMED TO HAVE DONE SO 
THROUGH ITALIAN CONNECTIONS AND TO HAVE BEEN RECEIVED AT 
THE CARTER WHITE HOUSE.  HIS CURRENT BUSINESS INTERESTS 
INCLUDE A BANANA PLANTATION NEAR SHALANBOD, REAL 
ESTATE IN MOGADISHU, AND REPRESENTATION OF OVERSEAS 
FIRMS.  ZOPPO IS CONSIDERED BY MANY TO BE THE MOST 
INFLUENTIAL POLITICAL FIGURE IN SOUTHERN SOMALIA. 
ZOPPO HAS FIVE GROWN CHILDREN, ONE OF WHOM IS 
STUDYING AT THE UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA.  ZOPPO HAS A 
CATARACT ON ONE EYE, WHICH HE PLANS TO HAVE REMOVED 
IN THE UNITED STATES AFTER HIS UPCOMING TRIP TO 
EUROPE. 
 
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6. THE SOMALI DEMOCRATIC MOVENENT:  WHILE DECRYING 
TRIBALISM AS SOMALIA'S CURSE, ZOPPO READILY 
ACKNOWLEDGED THAT THE POLITICAL PARTY HE LEADS 
REPRESENTS ONLY HIS FELLOW RAHENWEYNE TRIBESMEN.  ASKED 
WHY HE HAD VIOLATED HIS PACT WITH SIAD TO ENGAGE AGAIN 
IN POLITICS, HE REPLIED THAT WITH THE REGIME NEARING ITS/ND 
AND  THE OTHER TRIBAL GROUPS ORGANIZING TO FURTHER THEIR 
OWN INTERESTS, HE DID NOT WANT RAHENWEYNE LEFT OUT OF 
THE COMPETITION FOR POWER.  DISCLAIMING ANY PERSONAL 
AMBITION, HE SAID HE IS TOO OLD AND INFIRM TO SEEK 
THE PRESIDENCY, AN OFFICE WHICH MIGHT, HOWEVER, BE 
OCCUPIED BY ONE OF HIS KINSMEN.  HE SAID HE CONSIDERED 
THE HAWIYE-BASED UNITED SOMALI CONGRESS A NATURAL ALLY, 
MENTIONING THAT HE HAD MET WITH ITS MOGADISHU LEADERSHIP 
THE PREVIOUS  EVENING AT THE HOME OF MOHAMED 
FARAH SIAD. 
 
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7.  THE CAIRO CONFERENCE:  THE RAHENWEYNE LEADER SAID 
THAT IN MEETINGS WITH THE MANIFESTO GROUP AND ITALIAN 
AMBASSADOR SICA IT WAS AGREED THAT ZOPPO WILL 
PARTICIPATE IN THE CAIRO ROUNDTABLE AS A MEMBER OF THE 
MANIFESTO GROUP'S DELEGATION.  THIS TACTIC IS BEING 
ADOPTED TO HELP THE ITALIANS DEFLECT ATTEMPTS BY OTHER 
LESS REPRESENTATIVE GROUPS TO OBTAIN INVITATIONS TO 
THE MEETING.  SICA SUPPOSEDLY AGREED THAT THE SDM WILL 
BE INVITED TO ANY SUBSEQUENT ROUNDTABLE MEETINGS IN 
ITS OWN NAME.  ZOPPO PLANS TO VISIT LONDON EN ROUTE 
TO CAIRO, IN ORDER TO URGE THE SNM TO ATTEND THE FIRST 
ROUNDTABLE, IF THE NORTHERN DISSIDENTS HAVE NOT YET 
ACCEPTED THEIR INVITATION TO THE EGYPTIAN CAPITAL. 
 
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8.  MOHAMED SIAD BARRE:  STATING THAT HE HAD KNOWN 
THE PRESIDENT FOR SOME 45 YEARS, ZOPPO SAID THAT SIAD 
HAS BECOME VERY ERRATIC SINCE HIS 1986 AUTOMOBILE 
ACCIDENT.  THE RAHENWEYNE LEADER EXPRESSED THE BELIEF 
THAT THE PRESIDENT'S MOOD SHIFTS ARE SIDE EFFECTS 
PRODUCED BY DRUGS HE HAS TAKEN SINCE THE ACCIDENT. 
HE ASSERTED THEY ARE NOT SIMPLY THE CONSEQUENCE 
OF ADVANCING AGE OR OF THE ONSET OF SENILITY. ZOPPO 
SAID SIAD AND HIS FAMILY ARE NOT AT ALL INTERESTED IN 
REFORM.  THE SOLE EXCEPTION IS ABDIRAHMAN JAMA BARRE, 
WHO TOLD THE FAMILY AFTER RETURNING FROM THIS YEAR'S 
IMF/IBRD MEETINGS AND SUBSEQUENT DISCUSSIONS IN ROME 
THAT THE REGIME HAD NO CHOICE BUT TO ACCEPT POLITICAL 
REFORM. 
 
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9.  PROSPECTS:  GIVEN THE TENACITY OF TRIBALISM IN 
SOMALI POLITICS, AND THE FAILURE OF SIAD'S OPPONENTS 
TO AGREE ON A STRATEGY FOR COOPERATION IN A POST-SIAD 
SOMALIA, THE ELDER STATESMAN SAID HE FEARED FOR THE 
FUTURE.  HE WAS PARTICULARLY UPSET WITH THE SNM, 
WHICH HE ACCUSED OF TOTALLY IMPRACTICAL SECESSIONIST 
AMBITIONS.  HIS MESSAGE TO ME WAS A PLEA FOR GREATER 
AMERICAN INVOLVEMENT IN SOMALIA'S ACCELERATING QITICAL 
EVOLUTION. 
 
BISHOP