US embassy cable - 05CAIRO7885

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CAIRO 007885 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR ABRAMS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/09/2015 
TAGS: PREL, MOPS, EG 
SUBJECT: A/S WELCH DISCUSSES IRAQ, PALESTINE, AND SYRIA 
WITH EGYPTIAN FOREIGN MINISTER 
 
REF: CAIRO 7749 
 
Classified by DCM Stuart Jones for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
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Summary 
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1. (C) During an October 9 meeting with NEA A/S Welch, 
Egyptian Foreign Minister Aboul Gheit expressed pessimism 
about the near-term outlook in Iraq, but affirmed support for 
a comprehensive Arab diplomatic approach aimed at preserving 
national unity and promoting reconciliation.  The Foreign 
Minister cautioned that recent images of U.S. military 
operations in Western Iraq were fanning anger across the Arab 
world.  On Syria, Aboul Gheit said Egypt was working to 
influence the SARG's behavior but warned against opening a 
"third center of trouble" in an already volatile region.  End 
summary. 
 
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Israel-Palestine 
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2. (C) Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit solicited 
U.S. views on the next steps forward in Israel-Palestine in 
the post-Gaza withdrawal period.  A/S Welch told the Foreign 
Minister that he believed the upcoming summit between Prime 
Minister Sharon and President Abu Mazen was an important 
signal that a political process between the two parties would 
continue to move forward.  The U.S. hopes that both sides 
will be able address each other with confidence and dignity, 
he added.  A/S Welch noted the concurrent presence in Cairo 
of Special Envoy Wolfensohn, charged by President Bush with 
overseeing U.S. assistance to promote stability and good 
governance in the Gaza strip (whom Aboul Gheit had received 
earlier on October 9 - septel). 
 
3. (C) Aboul Gheit expressed Egyptian annoyance with a 
reported recent statement by the IDF's Director of Military 
Intelligence, asserting that extremists had taken advantage 
of Israel's withdrawal to step up smuggling of weapons from 
Egypt in Gaza.  Aboul Gheit told A/S Welch that Egypt had 
sought from the GOI clarification of the statement and had 
been told that the official had referred to alleged smuggling 
that had taken place in the initial period after the 
withdrawal rather than after GOE security forces had 
established order along the border.  The MFA had since 
circulated Israel's "clarification" to the Egyptian media, 
the Foreign Minister stated. 
 
4. (C) A/S Welch opined that, on balance, things were moving 
in a positive direction, noting that President Mubarak had 
told him earlier this morning (septel) that Israeli Defense 
Minister Mofaz would soon visit Cairo.  The Israeli MOD had 
firm control of the Gaza withdrawal operation and had 
operated effectively, A/S Welch observed, expecting that it 
would continue to play a constructive role in the political 
process that lay ahead.  Two areas in which the USG hopes to 
see progress soon are in withdrawals from Palestinian towns 
and in easing the burden on Palestinians transiting IDF 
checkpoints.  Progress on each issue will strengthen Abu 
Mazen's hand he asserted, noting that the Palestinian 
President continues to enjoy significant public support.  For 
the Israelis, everything depends on security.  As long as 
acts of Palestinian violence and terror can be preempted, 
many things will be possible. 
 
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Syria 
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5. (C) A/S Welch told Aboul Gheit that Syria was acting in a 
manner that endangered progress on the Israeli-Palestinian 
track, and was also taking actions that threatened to 
destabilize Lebanon and further enflame the situation in 
Iraq.  President Asad's very public feting of leaders of 
Palestinian extremist groups in early September was not an 
isolated event, he cautioned.  There is also significant 
evidence of Syrian facilitation of new weapons transfers into 
the hands of Palestinian extremists in Lebanon, and planning 
by the Islamic Jihad organization, with Syrian support, of 
new acts of terror against Israel.  Aboul Gheit initially 
demurred in the discussion, saying that he need not repeat 
what President Mubarak had told A/S Welch earlier that 
morning (septel). 
 
6. (C) However, the Foreign Minister returned to the subject 
of Syria later in the meeting, expressing concern that the 
U.S., if it acted too aggressively, risked creating a "third 
center of trouble" in an already volatile region.  A/S Welch 
told his host that he expected the Syrian case would become 
"more complicated" in the near future, with the anticipated 
mid-October release of the Mehlis report, which would likely 
implicate Syria in the assassination of Rafiq al-Hariri.  A/S 
Welch foresaw Security Council discussion, and possible 
Security Council action, in response to the report. 
 
7. (C) Aboul Gheit affirmed that Egypt was engaged in a high 
level dialogue with Syria aimed at improving the SARG's 
positions on key issues.  The U.S. should also open a frank 
dialogue with Syria, he suggested.   The release of the UN 
report may present a new opportunity to influence Syrian 
actions, Aboul Gheit opined.  A/S Welch told the Foreign 
Minister that U.S. dialogue with Syria had been tried and 
failed.  In Washington's view, A/S Welch continued, ignoring 
Syria's destabilizing actions in the region was more risky 
than confronting Damascus.  Drawing the Foreign Minister's 
attention to President Bush's latest remarks on Syria, A/S 
Welch cautioned that and the White House remained very 
skeptical of Syria's intentions and that all options remained 
open to the President. 
 
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Iraq 
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8. (C)  A/S Welch described the coming 3-4 month period as a 
particularly delicate one for Iraq and welcomed recent moves 
to step up Arab diplomatic engagement there.  Arab states can 
play an important and constructive role in creating a 
"center" in Iraq, helping Iraqis build a national consensus 
for cooperation and stability, he stated.  The U.S. was 
encouraged by the recent Arab League announcement that it 
would send a mission to Baghdad, A/S Welch added. 
 
9. (C) Aboul Gheit said "something must be done to preserve 
Iraqi national unity."  The Arab League proposal to hold an 
international conference in Cairo aimed at promoting an Iraqi 
national reconciliation process was fully supported by Egypt. 
 However, such a conference required determined, deliberate 
and thorough preparations, he continued.  To this end, Arab 
League envoy Ben Heli, an Algerian diplomat, was already in 
Baghdad, where he was finding both Sunnis and Shi'a eager "to 
bring the Arab League into their camp," according to the 
Foreign Minister.  Though Arab League SYG Amr Moussa had 
initially announced he would visit Baghdad by October 15, he 
had subsequently rethought the idea and dispatched Ben Heli 
on a preparatory mission.  Aboul Gheit expected that Moussa 
would himself visit Baghdad, but not until the end of the 
holy month of Ramadan (which concludes on November 3). 
 
10. (C) On the overall Arab approach, Aboul Gheit told A/S 
Welch he saw three core issues that needed to be addressed 
simultaneously:  resolving inter-communal conflicts, 
establishing a sustainable political process, and addressing 
the issue of foreign military occupation.  The importance of 
the later issue should not be underestimated, Aboul Gheit 
asserted, recalling the bitter debate in the Arab public over 
the legitimacy and legality of the foreign military presence. 
 The Foreign Minister envisioned that progress on this issue 
might be realized by proposing a tentative timetable for the 
withdrawal of foreign forces, perhaps within 24 months, 
conditioned on the concurrent development of Iraq security 
force capabilities. 
 
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Iraq and the Media 
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11. (C) Diplomatic efforts notwithstanding, Aboul Gheit said 
he was gloomy about the near-term prospects in Iraq.  He 
expected the upcoming constitutional referendum would "do 
nothing to reduce the violence."  A/S Welch agreed that 
fighting would continue, adding that U.S. and coalition 
forces "would be stepping it up in some places."  "Be careful 
about that," Aboul Gheit cautioned in response.  Recent 
images of U.S. military operations in western Iraq were 
enflaming the emotions of Arabs across the region, he stated, 
citing a particular clip that had aired recently on 
Al-Jazeera TV, showing a group of Iraqi civilians, including 
a beleaguered mother carrying her baby.  "This footage alone 
will lead a thousand Arab youths to volunteer for Iraq (as 
insurgents)," he asserted. 
 
12. (C) The Foreign Minister also told A/S Welch that the 
U.S. should be cautious in its use of terms like "Islamic 
terrorism," citing President Bush's October 6 speech.  "We 
can understand when you refer to Islamist terrorism," he 
stated, "but you should refer to terror as Islamic - Islam is 
something different...We never heard of 'Catholic terrorism' 
in Ireland." 
 
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More Media Issues - Sawa and Manar 
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13. (C) A/S Welch raised with the Foreign Minister U.S. 
concerns about the incitement continuously broadcast on 
Al-Manar, the Hizballah TV station carried on GOE-owned 
Nilesat.  Aboul Gheit, who had discussed the issue at length 
with Ambassador Ricciardone on October 5 (reftel), assured 
A/S Welch "I'm working on it." 
 
14. (C) For his part, Aboul Gheit expressed GOE concern about 
draft U.S. legislation linking assistance to Egypt to 
progress on erecting an FM transmitter in Cairo to carry the 
signal for the U.S.-funded station Radio Sawa.  "We object to 
this kind of arm twisting," the Foreign Minister stated, "it 
will complicate a solution." 
 
RICCIARDONE