US embassy cable - 05BAGHDAD4215

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 004215 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/12/2015 
TAGS: PREL, KDEM, IZ, XL 
SUBJECT: FALLUJAH:  MOBILIZED FOR THE REFERENDUM, BIG 
TURNOUT  PREDICTED IN ICONIC CITY 
 
Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROBERT FORD, 
REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D). 
 
1. (C) SUMMARY:  Fallujans are mobilized to vote in large 
numbers October 15.  Most residents remain primarily focused 
on immediate needs in the recovering city (power, water, and 
security) rather than the national political debate.  City 
leaders have not yet formally urged rejection of the 
constitution.  Tribal leaders have stated that the decision 
should be left to individuals.  Imams, the city,s most 
influential group, likely will urge a "no" vote via informal 
exchanges during prayer sessions, but not from the city,s 
numerous mosque pulpits.  Clerics fear the current draft 
equals Iraq,s division.  They still seek and hope for 
changes.  (NOTE:  It is unclear what effect the IIP,s 
decision to support the draft will have on Fallujah voters, 
although initial indications are that it will move a 
proportion of them to vote in favor of the draft.  END NOTE.) 
 Few constitutions have been distributed in the city; a 
majority of residents will not have read the draft by 
referendum day.  Fallujah's near universal mobilization, 
active over several months, has translated into a sizable 
Sunni-Arab voting bloc in Al Anbar province.  The Independent 
Electoral Commission for Iraqi (IECI) has agreed to allow 
area tribes, with imam support, to help provide inner 
security at the city,s approximate 30 polling sites. 
International media (Coalition Force-assisted) are scheduled 
to be in the city for the referendum; their presence should 
help capture strategic images of high turnout in a city more 
known for its notoriety than any democratic impulse.  Zarqawi 
propaganda discouraging political participation has proven to 
be largely ineffective in Iraq,s city of mosques, once his 
terrorist headquarters.  This ironic and telling AMZ failure 
should be exploited in the days following the October 15 
vote.  END SUMMARY. 
 
A MOBILIZED CITY 
 
2. (C) Fallujah leaders began to mobilize in spring 2005, 
organizing grass-roots meetings among key city groups.  In 
early June, one session included over 200 participants, who 
met at a nearby cement factory.  A summary document issued at 
the time contained standard Sunni-Arab complaints (detainee 
release, CF withdrawal, etc.), but it also urged area 
residents to participate in the national political process. 
In mid-July, Fallujah imams issued an oral fatwa urging 
Fallujans to register for the upcoming referendum and 
election.  Tens of thousands did.  Key city groups and 
ordinary residents have since offered consistent points to 
Fallujah Poloff and Marine officers echoing that the city 
will participate in the upcoming referendum and December 
election.  They include imams and tribal sheikhs. 
 
IMAMS:  The city,s mufti (principal imam authorized to issue 
fatwas) told Poloff and Marine FAO October 4 that "the city 
is completely ready for the referendum, but the more 
important question is whether appropriate changes will be 
made to the constitution.  If there are not, we will reject 
it.  We would like to vote for it, but not in its present 
form."  Another senior imam, Sheikh Ahmed Al Janabi, said 
September 28 that he had delivered five Friday sermons urging 
participation, adding that many other imams had as well. 
Sheikh Ahmed noted that the city,s council of imams had not 
yet decided on a joint position.  He, however, would vote 
"no" because of "dangers" in certain paragraphs, many of 
which would lead to &a splitting of the country . . . you 
will have many different parties with no centralized 
control." 
 
TRIBAL SHEIKHS:  The head of Fallujah,s tribal council, 
Sheikh Thamer, noted in an October 8 meeting that Fallujans 
had been informed about polling locations.  He stressed that 
tribal leaders would not tell tribal members how to vote, 
declaring "Of course not.  A man is free to vote.  It,s his 
decision.  We are not going to tell anyone how to vote." 
Other tribal heads have questioned ongoing U.S. military 
operations in the Euphrates River Valley, which they believe 
are intentionally designed to suppress Sunni-Arab turnout. 
 
IECI EXCEPTION: FALLUJAH'S DIFFERENT 
 
3. (C) IECI Chairman Izadin visited Fallujah October 6 
(reported septel) and informed leaders that the commission 
had agreed to allow Fallujah-area tribes to help protect 
polling sites.  City police would be co-located for inner 
core security, while ISF units (Iraqi Army and Public Order 
Brigades) would provide outer security, shadowing Marine 
quick-reaction force teams.  This approach would help reduce 
possible friction between the largely Shia dominated ISF and 
the city's dominant Sunni-Arab population.  Fallujah imams 
had also agreed to help provide IECI workers.  (NOTE:  Poloff 
and Marine FAO will meet with local IECI hires Wednesday, 
October 12, to confirm overall preparations in the city.) 
 
INTIMIDATION? 
 
4. (C) Fallujah leaders have largely discounted 
pre-referendum threats by extremists and insurgents.  The 
city's broad mobilization, supported publicly by imams and 
tribal heads, has blunted the terrorist message.  Some fliers 
have appeared on city streets urging residents not to 
participate in the referendum, but without attribution. 
Residents do not appear swayed by AMZ warnings and have 
instead decided to heed calls by their religious and tribal 
leaders.  Fallujans continue, however, to flag ongoing 
concern about ISF in the city, including their role on 
referendum day.  The presence of Iraqi police in the inner 
cordon should alleviate most Fallujans, concerns about 
possible harassment or intimidation by the Shia-dominated 
Iraqi Army and POB units.  (NOTE:  In the January 30 
election, there were some reports of ISF harassment.  ; inIn 
recent days, we have heard a POB refrain along the lines of 
"It,s Shia time, Sunni boys.") 
 
STRATEGIC MEDIA MOMENT 
 
5. (C) A delegation of media representatives are scheduled to 
visit Fallujah referendum day, facilitated by Embassy PAO, 
MNC-I and U.S. Marines.  This group, mostly western, will be 
based at the downtown Fallujah Civil-Military Operations 
Center October 14-16.  Their presence should help ensure that 
strategic images of the anticipated tens of thousands of 
voters are captured October 15.  One Fallujah resident, 
Lawyer Muslih, told Poloff and Marine FAO October 4 that &if 
you don,t take pictures, no one will believe it.8  Big 
turnout in the city should help counter extremist propaganda, 
including from Zarqawi himself )- Fallujah,s most notorious 
ex-resident.   COMMENT 
 
6.  (C) COMMENT: Fallujah leaders have echoed each other for 
many weeks:  the city will turnout in large numbers 
referendum day.  Residents are mobilized to an extent not 
seen in other Anbar cities.  The large presence of U.S. 
Marines and a local tribal security plan, supplemented by 
police, have helped reassure residents that polling sites 
will be safe.  So far, informal discussions with Fallujah 
residents point toward &no8 vote, particularly should 
further changes not be made to the draft constitution.  The 
IIP,s decision to support the draft will likely move some in 
the city toward a positive vote and could signal an important 
shift in perceptions on the ground.  One Fallujan, Engineer 
Farouk, told Poloff and Marine FAO October 12 that Fallujans 
would take note of the announcement, although not all people 
listened to the IIP.  Notably, key Fallujah leaders have also 
begun to look toward the follow-on December election, a sign 
that their mobilization efforts -- and momentum as a sizable 
Sunni-Arab voting bloc -- will be carried forward, regardless 
of the referendum outcome.  This is positive and reflects 
pragmatic thinking.  Media images from the strategic city on 
referendum day will show Fallujah advancing politically, 
albeit amid still sizable reconstruction and security 
challenges.  High turnout October 15 will be a testament to 
qualified progress on a key front. END COMMENT. 
Khalilzad