US embassy cable - 05BAGHDAD4208

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 004208 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/11/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PNAT, PREL, IZ 
SUBJECT: CODEL REED VISITS PM JAFARI 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Robert S. Ford for 
Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
PM optimistic about the referendum 
---------------------------------- 
 
1.  (SBU) On October 11, Prime Minister Ibrahim 
Jaafari told Senators Jack Reed (R-RI) and Chris Dodd 
(D-CT) that he is optimistic that the constitution 
referendum will take place on time and will pass 
without issue. Jaafari added that he expects 
widespread voter turnout that will include Sunni 
participation.  He added that the majority of Sunnis 
in Iraq are good people who want the democratic 
process to move forward. Jaafari stated that Iraq's 
leadership has demonstrated its flexibility and 
willingness to include Sunnis by entertaining last 
minute changes to the draft constitution.  He 
applauded Embassy Baghdad's efforts to bridge the gaps 
and tirelessly facilitate meetings between the various 
sides. Jaafari told the Codel that this constitution 
must be adopted so Iraqis can have the democratic 
opportunity to develop it further. 
 
No Timetable for MNFI Troop Withdrawal 
-------------------------------------- 
 
2.  (C) Jafari stated that there could be no timetable 
for MNFI troop withdrawal because no one can predict 
the end to the war on terrorism.  He did cite two 
indicators that would lend serious thought to troop 
withdrawal: development of the political process and 
improved performance of Iraqi troops and police. 
 
No Civil War 
------------- 
 
3.  (C) Jafari dismissed speculation that Iraq is 
headed toward the brink of civil war.  He said that 
while it would appear that Iraq is in the midst of a 
civil war with entities using terrorist tactics, but 
that most Shia and Sunnis peacefully interact. He 
added that the new generation of Iraqis does not only 
view relationships along sectarian divides. He also 
claimed that Shia leadership would not enter into a 
civil war because it is the Shi'a who will benefit 
most from a peaceful and democratic society. 
 
Iranian Influence in Iraq 
------------------------- 
 
4. (C) Jafari expressed Iraq's desire to have good 
relations with all neighboring countries, and called 
growing Iranian influence a fact of geography.  He 
reminded the Codel that during the Saddam era, Iran 
provided refuge to the many in the opposition. Jaafari 
said that as long as Iran respects Iraq's sovereignty, 
no red line would be crossed and he welcomes the 
interaction. 
 
5. (U) CODEL Reed did not have the opportunity to 
clear this cable. 
Khalilzad