US embassy cable - 05LAGOS1573

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 LAGOS 001573 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/10/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PHUM, NI 
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: POLITICAL SNAPSHOTS FROM THE SOUTH 
 
REF: A. LAGOS 1293 B. LAGOS 1549 
 
Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne for reason 1.4 (d). 
 
1.  (C) Summary.  The Southern Nigerian political scene 
remains volatile.  Three demonstrations in Nigeria in recent 
weeks have resulted in between four and ten deaths.  Another 
deputy governor has been impeached; the governor of Abia 
State is embroiled in a bitter political battle with the 
President; and internal power struggles threaten to split the 
Imo State chapter of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).  End 
Summary. 
 
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NATIONAL SNAPSHOTS: Protest Rallies Largely Ineffective; 
PDP Registration Flounders 
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2.  (U) Between September 17 and 29, the Labor and Civil 
Society Coalition (LASCO) conducted marches and rallies in 
nine cities to protest increased fuel prices.  The rallies 
were larger than expected, attracting as many as 50,000 
protestors in both Lagos and Kano.  The GON responded by 
offering to freeze prices until the end of 2006 and to lower 
prices if and when market forces allow. 
 
3.  (U) Chima Ubani, head of Nigeria's most respected human 
rights group, the Civil Liberties Organization (CLO), and a 
newspaper editor were killed in a car accident while 
returning to Abuja from the September 21 rally in Maiduguri. 
Rumors of GON connivance in the accident are afloat, but thus 
far no evidence points to foul play, only to substandard 
roads, poorly maintained vehicles, and ill-trained drivers. 
 
4.  (C) The series of rallies concluded September 29 in 
Abuja, where protestors lobbed trash and sticks at Malam 
Nasir El-Rufai, Minister of the Federal Capital Territory. 
NLC President Oshiomhole had to intervene, and the GON 
ultimately thanked the NLC for conducting relatively peaceful 
rallies.  (Comment:  The NLC had hoped the rallies would 
culminate in a swell of popular support for a possible strike 
against the fuel price increase.  However, by the time these 
rallies were held, the general public was resigned to the 
price increase and had little stomach to enlist in a strike 
against what already seemed a fait accompli.  End Comment.) 
 
5.  (U) Local branches of the PDP began issuing registration 
cards to members, but the process resulted in internecine 
turmoil in many states.  Cards were too scarce for all, and 
those controlling the process favored their factional 
partisans when distributing the cards.  In a statement to the 
press, a Lagos State PDP boss described the membership card 
shortage as a deliberate strategy by the pro-Obasanjo 
National Executive to retake party structure from the 
governors.  Protest petitions in no fewer than six states 
forced the national PDP to form committees to monitor the 
registration, to ensure that everyone who wished to register 
with the party could do so.  One person reportedly died in 
Delta State as a result of a registration card dispute. 
 
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SOUTH-WEST SNAPSHOT: Soldiers fight Police in Lagos; 
Ekiti Deputy Governor impeached 
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6.  (U) On October 5 an argument between a soldier and a 
policeman on a Lagos bus cascaded into widespread violence in 
the Surulere section of the city, claiming three lives and 
leaving ten wounded (ref B).  While police and soldiers were 
attacking each other and hapless civilians who got in the 
way, local thugs were only too happy to join the fray, adding 
to the chaos.  Several vehicles and shops were destroyed, and 
a police station nearly burned down.  Lagos State Governor 
Tinubu has convened daily emergency security council meetings 
with army and police heads to investigate the matter. 
Meanwhile, police sources are reporting occasional flare-ups 
with soldiers by way of reprisal, none yet fatal.  (Comment. 
This is the latest and most spectacular flare-up in a long 
standing rivalry in Lagos between the police and army.  The 
relationship between the two has been strained in Lagos for 
some time.  With the rank and file of both feeling the pinch 
of generalized economic hardship and with neither uniform 
viewed with respect by most Lagosians, the possibility of 
other flare-ups is real.  That the police and army can be as 
much a catalyst of unrest as they can be a brake against it 
demonstrates the fragile security situation that 
characterizes many parts of Lagos.  End Comment.) 
 
7.  (C) In Ekiti State, Abiodun Aluko, the Deputy Governor, 
was impeached September 15 on sixteen counts of disloyalty 
and gross misconduct.  In the meantime, nineteen members of 
the State's House of Representatives, including Speaker 
Friday Aderemi, were questioned by the Economic and Financial 
Crimes Commission (EFCC) for allegedly taking bribes of two 
million naira (about $15,000) each from Ekiti Governor Ayo 
Fayose.  An NGO, Ekiti Justice & Equity Movement, presented 
these bribery charges to the EFCC.  The NGO provided bank 
statements and other documents demonstrating the legislators 
had used official funds for personal expenses, including a 
sports car.  (Comment.  That Ekiti's Deputy Governor was 
given the pink slip may be further evidence that President 
Obasanjo has wrested power in the PDP from Vice-President 
Atiku's machine.  For instance, a pro-Obasanjo governor like 
Ekiti's Fayose found it relatively easy to remove his 
"disloyal" deputy.  In Akwa Ibom, pro-Atiku Governor Victor 
Attah was stopped in his tracks by the PDP National Secretary 
when he tried to boot his second-in-command.  End Comment.) 
 
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SOUTH-SOUTH SNAPSHOT:  Niger Delta Tensions Breed Desperate 
 Acts 
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8.  (U) The South-South remains tense but largely quiet.  The 
detentions of regional leaders - Bayelsa State Governor 
Alamieyeseigha in Britain for money laundering, followed by 
Dokubo-Asari's arrest for treason - instigated angry 
demonstrations by militants in the South and has much of the 
population in a state of suspense.  Asari's Niger Delta 
People's Volunteer Force (NDPVF) has announced a ceasefire, 
and other Ijaw groups have been quiet, apparently awaiting 
further government action in Asari's case. 
 
9.  (C) On October 6, Dokubo-Asari's lawyer and Ledum Mitee, 
President of the Movement for the Survival of the Ogoni 
People (MOSOP), were "invited" to Abuja and questioned about 
issues relating to Asari's activities.  Mitee was later 
released for lack of evidence connecting him to Asari. 
Asari's treason trial was scheduled to begin October 7.  In 
Bayelsa, the State Speaker of the House was dismissed and 
brought up on charges before the EFCC.  (Comment. 
Reportedly, Abuja is pressing the State Assembly to impeach 
Governor Alamieyeseigha, and the Speaker's demise may be 
related to his reticence in initiating proceedings against 
his political mentor.  End Comment.) 
 
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SOUTH-EAST SNAPSHOT: MASSOB riots claim at least six lives; 
Abia Governor exchanges corruption charges with OBJ; 
Imo State PDP rips apart 
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10.  (U) The Igbo secessionist group Movement for the 
Actualization of the Sovereign State of Biafra (MASSOB) held 
protests in September in four southern states, Imo, Anambra, 
Cross River and Delta.  The protests were organized in 
response to perceived police mistreatment of MASSOB leader 
Ralph Uwazurike, who is currently in hiding.  Protestors 
clashed with police in Anambra State, and as many as six 
people were reported dead.  Police arrested several of the 
protestors, and MASSOB sources claim that they are still in 
custody. 
 
11.  (C) Abia State Governor Orji Kalu wrote a letter to 
President Obasanjo, accusing him of corruption and abuse of 
office.  He categorized Obasanjo's reform campaign as "window 
dressing" for a scheme to eliminate political rivals. 
Obasanjo responded by turning the letter over to the EFCC and 
demanding an investigation.  Kalu refused the EFCC's summons 
request to provide evidence to corroborate the accusation, 
asserting that the EFCC could not conduct an unbiased 
investigation since it reported directly to the President. 
Kalu called for a special prosecutor.  At the same time, 
Kalu's former Deputy Governor Eyinnaya Abaribe submitted a 
petition to the EFCC accusing the Governor of 
misappropriation of state funds and embezzlement.  (Comment. 
This is the latest round in the President's long-standing 
battle with Kalu.  In this particular round, each appeared to 
call the other's bluff.  While nothing happened this time, we 
can expect other encounters in the near future.  End Comment.) 
 
12.  (U) In a move to weaken pro-Atiku governor Udenwa, the 
National Working Council (NWC) of the PDP dissolved the Imo 
State chapter's Executive Committee, following alleged 
irregularities in the party's local council primaries.  The 
National Council then installed a "caretaker" committee to 
run the party in the state.  The Imo PDP immediately split 
into two factions: one consisting of Abuja-based Imo 
politicians and supportive of the new committee; the other 
consisting of Governor Achike Udenwa's supporters.  Udenwa 
persists in demanding the immediate dissolution of the 
"caretaker" committee, but no resolution has yet been made. 
 
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Comment 
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13.  (U) Politics in Southern Nigeria continue to steam as 
2007 elections approach.  With the EFCC now on the scene 
arresting and questioning scores of officials throughout the 
South and with the impending trials of Asari and Governor 
Alamieyeseigha, the political competition promises to be more 
intense than the elections in 1999 or 2003.  The stakes are 
higher.  Now it appears to many that if one is on the losing 
side, not only will political dreams be dashed but one might 
get a "go-to-jail" card.  Thus, we will continue to see more 
hardball politics in Southern Nigeria.  End Comment. 
 
14.  This cable has been cleared by Embassy Abuja. 
BROWNE