US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI4147

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 004147 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS AIT/W, INR/EAP 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/11/2025 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, TW 
SUBJECT: PRE-ELECTION SCENESETTER: KAOHSIUNG COUNTY 
 
 
Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason(s): 1.4 (B/D). 
 
1. (C)  SUMMARY: WITH AN AIR OF EXUBERANT CONFIDENCE POURING 
FROM ITS HEADQUARTERS IN KAOHSIUNG COUNTY, THE DPP BELIEVES 
THE COUNTY MAGISTRATE ELECTION IS ALREADY SIGNED, SEALED AND 
DELIVERED.  THE INCUMBENT HAS A NEAR 70% APPROVAL RATING AND 
AN EXCELLENT REPUTATION FOR GOOD GOVERNMENT.  AT THE SAME 
TIME, AT THE KMT HEADQUARTERS, THE BUSY ATMOSPHERE AND WORDS 
OF HOPEFUL OPTIMISM ABOUT YOUNG KMT CANDIDATE LIN YI-SHI 
CANNOT HIDE THE SIGHS AND LOCAL KMT'S DESPONDENCY ABOUT 
TAIWAN'S LACK OF DIRECTION AND THE FOOLISHNESS OF THE LOCAL 
KAOHSIUNG POPULATION TO BE SO TAKEN WITH THE "BEN TU" VIEW OF 
THE WORLD DESPITE THAT IT PROMISES ONLY RUIN FOR TAIWAN.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
2.  (C)  A VISIT TO EXECUTIVE SECRETARY TSAI YUNG-CHANG OF 
THE DPP'S KAOHSIUNG OFFICE LEFT AIT/K WITH THE DISTINCT 
IMPRESSION THAT THE DPP HAS ALREADY WON THIS RACE.  ACCORDING 
TO TSAI, KAOHSIUNG IS SO SOLIDLY GREEN AND KMT CANDIDATE LIN 
IS SO OUT OF TOUCH WITH LOCAL REALITIES THAT THE DPP 
DISMISSES ANY KMT HOPE OF WINNING.  DISCUSSING LIN'S 
WEAKNESSES, TSAI POINTED OUT, LIN HAS NO CONNECTIONS TO THE 
COUNTY'S GRASSROOT VOTERS AND, ALTHOUGH A POPULAR FACE ON 
NATIONAL TELEVISION BROADCASTS, LIN CAN ONLY ADDRESS NATIONAL 
ISSUES, SUCH AS THE ARMS PROCUREMENT BILL, AND OFTEN 
CRITICIZES THE DPP AND ITS SUPPORTERS IN ORDER TO IMPRESS 
PAN-BLUE VOTERS. LIN'S ISSUES AND DISRESPECTFUL ATTITUDE IN A 
SOLIDLY GREEN COUNTY JUST WILL NOT RESONATE WITH LOCAL 
VOTERS, CLAIMS TSAI.  TSAI NOTES THAT MAGISTRATE YANG, WHO 
KNOWS THE LOCAL ISSUES AND PEOPLE, WILL CAMPAIGN FOR HIS 
ADMINISTRATION'S ONGOING PRIORITY: THE NEED FOR INCREASED 
EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN KAOHSIUNG COUNTY. 
 
3.  (C) NEITHER IS THE DPP WORRIED ABOUT DISSATISFACTION WITH 
THE CHEN ADMINISTRATION OR THE "MA YING-JEOU EFFECT."  TSAI 
BOLDLY CLAIMED THAT CHAIRMAN MA HAS ABSOLUTELY NO INFLUENCE 
ON THE PEOPLE OF KAOHSIUNG COUNTY.  IN ADDITION, THIS PARTY 
STALWART NOTED THAT IF PEOPLE ARE DISSATISFIED WITH THE 
CENTRAL AUTHORITIES THEY WILL ELECT A NEW ADMINISTRATION IN 
2008, BUT KAOHSIUNG COUNTY VOTERS WILL NOT SEE ISSUES OF 
PARTY CORRUPTION OR POOR PERFORMANCE OF THE CHEN 
ADMINISTRATION AS HAVING ANYTHING TO DO WITH THE MAGISTERIAL 
ELECTION.  EVEN IF THE KAOHSIUNG MASS TRANSIT CORPORATION'S 
(KMRT) CORRUPTION SCANDAL EVENTUALLY TOUCHES FORMER KAOHSIUNG 
MAYOR, NOW PREMIER HSIEH CHANG-TING, KAOHSIUNG COUNTY DPP 
VOTERS WILL WAIT UNTIL THE FINAL PROSECUTION REPORT IS IN 
BEFORE THEY BLAME THE PREMIER FOR WRONG-DOING. 
 
4.  (C)  ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE FENCE, THE KMT KAOHSIUNG 
COUNTY CHAIRMAN LIU CHIN-TIEN IS GUARDEDLY OPTIMISTIC ABOUT 
HIS CANDIDATE'S CHANCES.  CANDIDATE LIN YI-SHI IS A YOUNG 
FACE, CHARACTERIZED BY LIU AS A RISING STAR, IN THE KMT.  LIU 
SEES LIN'S REGULAR TV APPEARANCES ON TALK SHOWS AS USEFUL 
EXPOSURE TO INCREASE HIS POPULARITY.  IN FACT, LIU POINTED 
OUT, LIN'S POPULARITY IS INCREASING FROM A BEGINNING RATE OF 
ONLY 9% WEEKS AGO TO 29% IN THE LATEST TVBS POLL.  THE KMT IS 
EAGERLY AWAITING THE NEXT MID-OCTOBER POLL RESULTS TO SEE IF 
THE STEADY INCLINE CONTINUES. 
 
5.  (C) SINCE LIN IS A YOUNG KAOHSIUNG NATIVE AND A VERY 
"CLEAN" CANDIDATE, THE KAOHSIUNG KMT IS LINKING LIN WITH THE 
IMAGE OF CHAIRMAN MA YING-JEOU AT EVERY OPPORTUNITY AND 
EXPECTS TO SEE CHAIRMAN MA MORE THAN ONCE IN KAOHSIUNG COUNTY 
TO CAMPAIGN ON BEHALF OF LIN.  ACCORDING TO LIU, LIN VERY 
EASILY FITS INTO THE REFORM MESSAGE SENT OUT BY KMT MEMBERS 
VIA THE ELECTION OF CHAIRMAN MA.  BESIDES THAT, THE KMT 
BELIEVES THAT IF THEY CAN MOBILIZE THE YOUTH VOTE IN 
KAOHSIUNG COUNTY, HOPEFULLY PUSHING THE TURN OUT RATE TO 
ABOVE 75%, THAT LIN HAS A FIGHTING CHANCE TO WIN THIS 
ELECTION.  TO DO THAT, THE KMT HOPES TO DRAG MAGISTRATE 
YANG'S NAME AND ACTIONS INTO THE KMRT SCANDAL, WHICH, THE KMT 
CLAIMS, YANG AVOIDED ENTIRELY EVEN THOUGH THE THAI LABOR 
CAMPS WERE IN COUNTY TERRITORY.  AS SUCH, ISLAND WIDE 
DISSATISFACTION WITH THE CHEN ADMINISTRATION CAN BE "BROUGHT 
HOME" TO KAOHSIUNG COUNTY, POSSIBLY INSPIRING MORE YOUNG 
PEOPLE TO COME OUT AND CAST A VOTE FOR CHANGE.  WITHOUT THE 
YOUTH VOTE, HOWEVER, LIU BELIEVES THE LOCAL DPP MACHINE CAN 
DEFEAT THEM BY USING UNDERGROUND RADIO STATIONS AND RALLIES 
THAT WILL STRESS THE "BEN TU" ISSUE IN ORDER TO RALLY THE 
MASSES AROUND MAGISTRATE YANG. 
 
6.  (C)  COMMENT:  WHILE THE DPP WILL FOCUS ON CREATING JOB 
OPPORTUNITIES, THE KMT SEES BAD CENTRAL GOVERNMENT 
PERFORMANCE AND CORRUPTION AS THE MAJOR ISSUES IN THE LOCAL 
CAMPAIGN.  WHILE THE DPP IS ALREADY CELEBRATING THIS EASY 
WIN, THE KMT IN KAOHSIUNG COUNTY HAS NOT LOST HOPE IN WHAT 
APPEARS TO BE A LONG SHOT IN THIS PARTICULAR RACE: THE 
ABILITY OF SOME MUD-SLINGING ALONG WITH CHAIRMAN MA'S 
COATTAILS TO SWEEP THEM TO AN UNEXPECTED VICTORY.  END 
COMMENT. 
PAAL