US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI4145

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 004145 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS AIT/W, INR/EAP 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/11/2025 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, TW 
SUBJECT: PRE-ELECTION SCENESETTER: TAINAN CITY 
 
REF: A. A) TAIPEI 3900 
 
     B. B) TAIPEI 3916 
 
Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason(s): 1.4 (B/D). 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY:  WITH A TWO-TIME KMT LOSER HEADING THE 
MAYORAL TICKET, THE ONLY HOPE FOR THE BELEAGUERED CANDIDATE 
IS THE RECENT ENTRY OF A TSU CANDIDATE WHO COULD SPLIT THE 
PAN-GREEN CAMP.  HOWEVER, THE DPP INCUMBENT IS SWEATING LESS 
OVER THE POSSIBILITY OF THE KMT COMING FROM BEHIND TO GRAB A 
WIN THAN OVER THE POPULARITY OF HIS TSU RIVAL, WHO, DESPITE 
PLEAS BY THE SOUTHERN TAIWAN ASSOCIATION, REFUSES TO PULL OUT 
OF THE RACE, SAYING THE DREADFUL PERFORMANCE OF THE INCUMBENT 
AND THE WEAK KMT CANDIDATE MAKE A RACE TO THE FINISH A 
WORTHWHILE ONE.  LOCALS SEEM TO AGREE THE MAYORAL BATTLE IS 
ALL-GREEN, BETWEEN THE DPP AND TSU, SAYING THE KMT CANDIDATE 
ISN'T EVEN A VIABLE PLAYER DUE TO HIS OWN HISTORY OF 
INCOMPETENCE.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2.  (C)  CHIEN-LIN HUI-CHUN, A RECENT TSU ENTRY INTO THE 
TAINAN CITY MAYORAL RACE (REFTEL A), HAS SPLIT THE GREEN CAMP 
AND HAS INCUMBENT DPP MAYOR HSU NERVOUS.  CHIEN-LIN, ECHOING 
A THEME ALSO HEARD IN THE KAOHSIUNG COUNTY MAGISTERIAL RACE, 
STRONGLY BELIEVES THE DPP HAS TURNED IN A POOR ECONOMIC 
PERFORMANCE AND LACKS A SUSTAINED DEVELOPMENT PLAN FOR THE 
CITY.  WITH A CAMPAIGN THAT WILL STRESS DPP'S WASTEFUL 
SPENDING ON CITY FESTIVALS AND FIREWORKS RATHER THAN ON 
INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS, SHE HAS AN APPEALING MESSAGE THAT 
COULD POTENTIALLY PULL THE RUG OUT FROM UNDER THE DPP IN 
TAINAN.  ALTHOUGH SHE WILL NOT ESTABLISH HER CAMPAIGN OFFICE 
UNTIL OCTOBER 15, 2005, THERE IS NO DOUBT SHE WILL STAY THE 
COURSE, ACCORDING TO HUANG CHAO-CHAN, THE TSU VICE SECRETARY 
GENERAL WHO FINANCED CHIEN-LIN'S CAMPAIGN TO THE TUNE OF NT 5 
MILLION.  PROFESSOR YANG TZE-CHUANG, A PROFESSOR OF ECONOMICS 
FROM TAINAN'S CHENG GONG UNIVERSITY SAID, IN FACT, CHIEN-LIN 
COULDN'T EVEN BEGIN HER CAMPAIGN BEFORE THE TSU FINANCING 
CAME THROUGH BECAUSE HER HUSBAND REFUSED TO FINANCE THE 
CAMPAIGN WITH FAMILY FUNDS. 
 
3.  (C) ECHOING ECONOMIC WOES AS THE BIG CAMPAIGN ISSUE, THE 
KMT CITY CHAIRMAN CHUANG SUNG-WONG, A RETIRED JOURNALIST, 
TRIED TO PRESENT HIS CANDIDATE IN THE BEST POSSIBLE LIGHT. 
CANDIDATE CHEN JUNG-SHEN HAS FAILED TWICE IN PURSUING THE 
MAYORAL SEAT AND HAS NO MONEY OF HIS OWN TO INVEST IN THIS 
CAMPAIGN.  HOWEVER, THE KMT CHAIRMAN STRESSED THAT CHEN, AS A 
NATIVE OF TAINAN, KNOWS THE CITY WELL AND, WITH THE HELP OF 
CHAIRMAN MA YING-JEOU, CAN MAKE A GOOD SHOWING IN THE 
ELECTION.  CITY CHAIRMAN CHUANG BLAMED CHEN'S PREVIOUS LOSS 
IN THE LAST ELECTION ON THE PRESENCE OF ANOTHER PAN-BLUE 
CANDIDATE WHO WAS RUNNING.  IN FACT, AIT/K CONTACTS IN TAINAN 
CITY, ALL OF WHOM ARE FAMILIAR PERSONALLY WITH ALL THREE 
CANDIDATES, ASSURED US THAT THE KMT ISN'T EVEN A FACTOR IN 
THIS RACE AND THE ONLY CANDIDATES TO WATCH WERE DPP'S HSU AND 
TSU'S CHIEN-LIN.  PROFESSOR YANG OF CHENG GONG UNIVERSITY 
 
SIPDIS 
WENT EVEN A STEP FURTHER BY PREDICTING FLAT OUT THAT 
INCUMBENT MAYOR HSU COULD SLEEP THROUGH THE ENTIRE CAMPAIGN 
AND STILL WIN DUE TO CHIEN-LIN'S LATE START AND HER LACK OF 
FUNDING. 
 
4.  (C) IN A SEPTEMBER 30, 2005, DISCUSSION WITH INCUMBENT 
MAYOR HSU, WHO HAD JUST RETURNED FROM REGISTERING HIS 
CANDIDACY, HE WAS CLEARLY NERVOUS ABOUT THE ENTRY OF THE TSU 
CANDIDATE.  HOWEVER, HE BELIEVES HIS GOOD PERFORMANCE AND 
WHAT HE SEES AS TAINAN'S FLOURISHING ECONOMY WILL KEEP VOTERS 
ON HIS SIDE.  STILL, HSU WAS STICKING WITH AN OFT-REPEATED 
DPP TENET IN TIGHT RACES THAT ROUGHLY EQUATES WITH "IT AIN'T 
OVER 'TIL IT'S OVER."  EVEN HSU'S CAMPAIGN DIRECTOR, CITY 
COUNCIL WOMAN AND DPP CITY CHAIRMAN CHEN TING-FEI, INDICATED 
THE ONLY DPP PROBLEM IN THIS RACE, BESIDES THE NATIONAL BAD 
IMAGE OF THE DPP ITSELF, IS THE TSU CANDIDATE.  WHILE THE DPP 
CITY OFFICE HAD DONE EVERYTHING POSSIBLE TO KEEP TSU'S 
CHIEN-LIN FROM REGISTERING HER CANDIDACY, ITS ONLY HOPE NOW 
IS THAT THE CENTRAL LEADERS OF THE TWO PARTIES MIGHT 
NEGOTIATE A WAY OUT OF THIS CONUNDRUM, SINCE THEIR LOCAL 
EFFORTS HAVE FAILED MISERABLY.  HSU'S CAMPAIGN DIRECTOR SAID 
THEY ARE CAMPAIGNING NOW AS IF CHIEN-LIN IS THE ONLY 
COMPETITION.  ALTHOUGH COUNCIL WOMAN CHEN BELIEVES PAN-GREEN 
VOTERS WILL EXERCISE THE "QIBAO" EFFECT (THE "DUMP AND 
PROTECT" EFFECT WHICH EXHIBITS AT THE 11TH HOUR WHEN VOTERS 
TOSS ASIDE THE CANDIDATE TO WHOM THEY PROFESS LOYALTY IN 
ORDER TO VOTE FOR SOMEONE LIKELY TO WIN), MAYOR HSU'S 
CAMPAIGN WILL NOT SIT EASY UNTIL THE LAST VOTE IS CAST. 
 
5.  (C)  REGARDING THE ISSUE OF THE CENTRAL AUTHORITIES 
ATTEMPT TO FORCE THE RELOCATION OF THE ONE HUNDRED YEAR OLD 
TAINAN UNIVERSITY IN TAINAN CITY (REFTEL B) MAYOR HSU HAS 
RECOGNIZED THE ISSUE'S IMPORTANCE AND TAKEN STRONG STEPS TO 
DEAL WITH IT.  HSU TOLD AIT/K THAT HE HAS MADE IT CLEAR TO 
CENTRAL AUTHORITIES AND THE MEDIA HE WILL RESIGN OVER THIS 
ISSUE IF IT IS NOT RESOLVED ACCORDING TO THE WISHES OF THE 
TAINAN CITIZENRY.  WHILE HE INDICATED THAT WHILE SOME 
HORSE-TRADING WILL TAKE PLACE, HE IS CONFIDENT HE WILL GET 
WHAT MOST OF WHAT HE WANTS, WHICH IS TO KEEP MOST OF THE 
UNIVERSITY ON CITY LAND, AND THUS COMPLETELY SET ASIDE THIS 
HERETOFORE CONTENTIOUS ISSUE. 
 
6.  (C)  ALTHOUGH THE PRESS HAS INDICATED THE SOUTHERN TAIWAN 
ASSOCIATION (STA) (REFTEL A), A GROUP OF DEEP-GREEN ACADEMICS 
AND MEDICAL PROFESSIONALS WHO COMMAND RESPECT AMONG LESS 
EDUCATED VOTERS IN SOUTHERN TAIWAN, HAVE SAID THEY WILL 
NEGOTIATE BETWEEN THE TWO CANDIDATES, PROFESSOR KUO CHIH-WEN, 
ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR OF ELECTRICAL ENGINEERING AT NATIONAL SUN 
YAT-SEN UNIVERSITY AND A HIGH PROFILE MEMBER OF THE STA, SAID 
STA WILL DO ONLY LIMITED NEGOTIATING UNDER THE TABLE TO GET 
CHIEN-LIN OUT OF THE RACE.  HE MADE IT CLEAR THAT STA WILL 
COME OUT PUBLICLY SOON IN A PRESS CONFERENCE TO SUPPORT MAYOR 
HSU IN THIS ELECTION IF CHIEN-LIN DOESN'T PULL OUT IN A 
TIMELY FASHION. 
 
7.  (C)  COMMENT:  AN INTERESTING DICHOTOMY APPEARS IN THIS 
RACE ON THE ECONOMIC ISSUE.  WHILE THE KMT AND TSU CANDIDATES 
WILL STRIKE HARD AGAINST THE DPP ON WORSENING LOCAL ECONOMIC 
CONDITIONS, THE DPP CANDIDATE AND HIS CAMPAIGN MANAGER 
BELIEVE THAT TAINAN CITY IS FLOURISHING WITH JOBS AND 
OPPORTUNITIES, PARTICULARLY IN THE CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY. 
THE INCREASING CLOSURE OF SHOP HOUSES DUE TO BANKRUPTCY OR 
BUSINESSES MOVING TO THE MAINLAND AS WELL AS THE DRAMATIC 
DECREASE IN REAL ESTATE PRICES IN THE CITY, HOWEVER, BESPEAK 
A DPP CANDIDATE OUT OF TOUCH WITH HIS CITY AND, POSSIBLY, 
SUBJECT TO REAL DAMAGE BY A DOUBLE FRONTAL ATTACK ON AN ISSUE 
ABOUT WHICH THE INCUMBENT APPEARS TO BE IN DENIAL. DAMAGE ON 
THAT FRONT COUPLED WITH A SPLIT PAN-GREEN VOTE COULD LIFT TSU 
CANDIDATE CHIEN-LIN'S PROSPECTS SIGNIFICANTLY IF SHE PUT CAN 
LIFE INTO A CAMPAIGN NOT YET OUT OF THE GATE.  END COMMENT. 
PAAL