US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI4144

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 004144 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS TO AIT/W, INR/EAP 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/11/2025 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, TW 
SUBJECT: PRE-ELECTION SCENESETTER: PINGTUNG COUNTY 
 
REF: TP 4043 
 
Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason(s): 1.4 (B/D). 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY. PINGTUNG, IN TAIWAN'S SOUTHEAST CORNER, IS 
SET FOR A THREE-WAY BATTLE  DOMINATED BY AN INDEPENDENT 
CANDIDATE ON A SPENDING SPREE AND BY THE INVISIBLE FORCE OF 
KMT CHAIRMAN MA YING-JEOU.  IN AN UNUSUAL MOVE THAT SPURRED 
AN EARLY BEGINNING TO THE RACE, PRO-KMT INDEPENDENT CANDIDATE 
SOONG LI-HUA, WIFE OF INDEPENDENT LY MEMBER TSAI HAO, BEGAN 
PASTING CAMPAIGN POSTERS AROUND THE COUNTY, PUTTING UP 
BILLBOARDS, AND SENDING OUT ROVING CAMPAIGN LOUDSPEAKER 
TRUCKS EN MASSE.  THIS EARLY CAMPAIGNING WITH ITS 
ACCOMPANYING DEEP POCKETS HAS PUT BOTH THE DPP AND KMT ON THE 
DEFENSIVE, EFFECTIVELY DRAINING THE CAMPAIGN COFFERS OF BOTH 
PARTIES, WHO CLAIM SOONG IS MORE INTERESTED IN THE THEATER OF 
CAMPAIGNING THAN IN POLITICS.  THE DPP, WHICH SEES NO LOCAL 
ISSUES TO GALVANIZE VOTERS, HAS BECOME A PUNCHING BAG FOR 
BOTH SOONG AND THE KMT CANDIDATE, BOTH OF WHOM ARE BLAMING 
THE POOR ECONOMIC CONDITIONS IN PINGTUNG ON THE CHEN 
ADMINISTRATION.  BOTH PARTIES SEE THE "MA YING-JEOU" EFFECT 
AS HAVING A CHANCE TO TIP THE BALANCE OF THE ELECTION AND ARE 
FORMING THEIR CAMPAIGN STRATEGIES TO EITHER AVOID OR ENHANCE 
THIS EFFECT.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2.  (C) INDEPENDENT CANDIDATE SOONG LI-HUA, WIFE OF POPULAR 
INDEPENDENT LEGISLATOR TSAI HAO, HELD A SEPTEMBER 26 CAMPAIGN 
RALLY IN PINGTUNG CITY WITH 20,000 FEMALE SUPPORTERS FROM THE 
33 TOWNSHIPS OF PINGTUNG COUNTY.  SOONG POINTED OUT AT THE 
RALLY THAT RECENT POLLING RESULTS SHOW SHE HAS THE MOST 
SUPPORT FROM FEMALE VOTERS AND FROM UNDECIDED VOTERS.  SHE 
CHARGED THAT UNDER THE COUNTY'S DPP ADMINISTRATION, COUNTY 
RESIDENTS HAVE SUFFERED FROM SERIOUS UNEMPLOYMENT FOR EIGHT 
YEARS AND IT'S TIME FOR A CHANGE.  DPP OPERATIVES SEE THIS 
ENTIRE EVENT AS MERE THEATER BEING USED IN AN ATTEMPT TO 
MOBILIZE PEOPLE TO CREATE PRESSURE ON THE DPP AND THE KMT. 
 
3.  (C)  BOTH THE KMT AND DPP HAVE DOWNPLAYED THIS SOONG 
RALLY, INDICATING THAT A FREE BUS TICKET TO PINGTUNG CITY 
FROM THE OUTLYING TOWNSHIPS COUPLED WITH A FREE LUNCH WOULD 
BE ENOUGH INCENTIVE TO GET LOTS OF PEOPLE TO COME OUT FOR A 
RALLY.  THE DPP ESCALATED ITS ATTACKS AGAINST SOONG'S 
CAMPAIGN SPENDING AND BEGAN TO ALLEGE VOTE-BUYING AS 
EVIDENCED BY EXPENSIVE "GIFTS" GIVEN TO SOONG SUPPORTERS AS 
PART OF A LOTTERY RUN OUT OF HER CAMPAIGN OFFICE.  MORE THAN 
70 SOONG SUPPORTERS WERE QUESTIONED BY PROSECUTORS, AND ONE 
OF HER CORE CAMPAIGN STAFFERS WAS DETAINED ON OCTOBER 6TH. 
IN A MOVE TO GET OUT THE SYMPATHY VOTE, A TEARFUL, BUT 
TELEGENIC, SOONG CHARGED THAT SHE WAS BEING PERSECUTED BY TWO 
RIVAL CANDIDATES AND THAT THIS AFFRONT WILL ONLY MAKE HER 
RESOLVE STRONGER.  ON OCTOBER 5, SOONG HERSELF IGNORED A 
SUBPOENA BY PROSECUTORS TO APPEAR FOR QUESTIONING.  SHE 
EXCUSED HERSELF AS REQUIRED TO ATTEND COUNTY COUNCIL 
MEETINGS.  HOWEVER, THE OCTOBER 7 ADJOURNMENT OF THE PINGTUNG 
COUNTY COUNCIL, OF WHICH SOONG IS A MEMBER, PAVES THE WAY FOR 
THE COUNTY PROSECUTORS TO INTERVIEW SOONG DIRECTLY REGARDING 
THE VOTE-BUYING CHARGES. PROSECUTORS REISSUED A SUBPOENA ON 
OCTOBER 11 TO REQUIRE SOONG TO APPEAR FOR QUESTIONING.  BOTH 
DPP AND KMT POLITICAL OBSERVERS ALSO COMPLAINED THAT SOONG 
LI-HUA'S CANDIDACY IS NOTHING BUT A FRONT TO TEST THE WATER 
FOR HER HUSBAND TO RUN IN THE NEXT MAGISTRATE ELECTION. 
 
4. (C) CHAIRMAN MA YING-JEOU HAS STATED PUBLICLY HE WILL NOT 
NEGOTIATE WITH SOONG TO GET HER TO PULL OUT OF THE RACE. 
PRIVATELY OBSERVERS SPECULATE MA BELIEVES IT IS TOO LATE TO 
"BUY" HER OUT BY OFFERING REIMBURSEMENT IN SOME FORM FOR HER 
HEAVY CAMPAIGN EXPENSES.  OF COURSE, GIVEN THAT SOONG'S 
CAMPAIGN IS NOW IN A STATE OF SEIGE BY PROSECUTORS, THE 
ALLEGATIONS OF VOTE BUYING MAY DRIVE HER OUT OF THE RACE. 
DESPITE REPEATED ATTEMPTS BY AIT/K TO CONTACT SOONG'S 
CAMPAIGN OFFICE IN PINGTUNG, AN ASSISTANT TOLD US THERE WAS 
NO ONE THERE DESIGNATED AS CAMPAIGN MANAGER WHO COULD ANSWER 
OUR QUESTIONS.  AN AIT/K CONTACT INDICATED THAT GIVEN THE 
EVENTS OF LAST WEEK, PINGTUNG RESIDENTS MAY NOW BE AFRAID TO 
CAMPAIGN FOR SOONG. 
 
5.  (C) ON SEPTEMBER 29, 2005, AIT/K CALLED ON LEE SHIH-BING, 
THE DPP CHAIRPERSON FOR PINGTUNG COUNTY.  LEE'S COMMENTS 
MIRRORED THE DPP STRATEGY REPORTED REFTEL OF "COMPENSATING 
FOR THE PARTY'S CREDIBILITY DEFICIT BY FOCUSING" ON 
INDIVIDUAL RECORDS AND APPEAL TO VOTERS. ITS OWN POLLS SHOW 
THAT THE DPP CANDIDATE, TSAO CHI-HUNG, HAS THE LEAD BY FIVE 
PERCENTAGE POINTS.  HOWEVER, THAT LEAD LENDS NO COMFORT WHEN 
33 PER CENT OF VOTERS CHARACTERIZE THEMSELVES AS UNDECIDED. 
WHILE CAMPAIGNING FOR A MAGISTERIAL ELECTION USUALLY BEGINS 
ONLY FIVE WEEKS OUT FROM THE ELECTION, THIS IS THE FIRST THAT 
HAD SUCH AN EARLY START DUE TO SOONG LI-HUA'S MASSIVE 
SPENDING CAMPAIGN TO BUILD SUPPORT FOR HER INDEPENDENT 
CANDIDACY.  IN THIS THREE-WAY RACE, THE DPP IS TERRIFIED OF A 
ONE-ON-ONE WITH EITHER KMT'S WANG, WHO HAS BEEN A POPULAR 
MAYOR IN PINGTUNG CITY, OR WITH THE NEW FACE OF INDEPENDENT 
CANDIDATE SOONG LI-HUA. 
 
6.  (C) THE SAME DAY, IN A CALL ON CHUNG CHIA-PIN, EXECUTIVE 
SECRETARY TO THE DPP CAMPAIGN OFFICE FOR CANDIDATE TSAO 
 
SIPDIS 
CHI-HUNG.  CHUNG ADMITTED THE DPP WOULD BE RUNNING SCARED IN 
PINGTUNG COUNTY IF THIS WERE A ONE-ON-ONE ELECTION WITH 
EITHER THE KMT CANDIDATE OR THE PRO-KMT INDEPENDENT 
CANDIDATE.  HOWEVER, THEY ARE ENCOURAGED BY THE POSSIBILITY 
OF PAN-BLUE SUPPORTERS SPLITTING THEIR VOTES AND BELIEVES 
THAT BODES WELL FOR TSAO.  CHUNG ALSO STRESSED THE IMPORTANCE 
OF TRYING TO KEEP VOTER TURN OUT LOW.  THE DPP IS ALSO 
CONCERNED ABOUT THE MA YING-JEOU EFFECT GIVEN THAT THE BAD 
PERFORMANCE OF THE CENTRAL DPP ADMINISTRATION HAS COLORED THE 
REPUTATION OF THE ENTIRE PARTY.  IN PINGTUNG COUNTY, CHUNG 
SAYS, THE MA EFFECT WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANCE IF THE PEOPLE ARE 
ENCOURAGED BY THE HEAVY MEDIA COVERAGE OF MA'S PRESIDENTIAL 
ASPIRATIONS TO MAKE THE LOCAL ELECTION A PRECURSOR TO THE 
2008 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.  THIS WILL FOCUS THE VOTERS ON 
REFORM AND CHANGE FROM THE CURRENT ADMINISTRATION, WHICH WILL 
NEGATIVELY AFFECT THE DPP CANDIDATE TSAO.  THE DPP, CHUNG 
SAYS, IS TRYING IN ALL THE 3 IN 1 ELECTIONS TO FOCUS ON THE 
LOCAL CANDIDATE AND AWAY FROM THE CENTRAL GOVERNMENT'S 
PERFORMANCE IN ORDER TO AVOID THE MA EFFECT. 
 
7.  (C) AIT/K CALLED ALSO ON TSAI SHU-YA, THE KMT COUNTY 
CHAIRPERSON.  THE KMT CANDIDATE WANG CHIN-SHIH IS THE 
INCUMBENT PINGTUNG CITY MAYOR, WHO HAS BENEFITED FROM HIS 
GOOD PERFORMANCE IN OFFICE.  TSAI SAID KMT'S OWN POLLS SHOW 
WANG IS TRAILING TSAO BY LESS THAN 1 PER CENT.  THE KMT IS 
CONFIDENT THAT SOONG LI-HUA WILL NOT SPLIT THE VOTE AND THAT 
PEOPLE WILL, AT THE LAST MINUTE, SWITCH TO THE STRONGEST 
PAN-BLUE CANDIDATE WHO CAN WIN THE ELECTION RATHER THAN VOTE 
ON PRINCIPLE FOR A LOSER (THIS IS KNOWN AS THE "QIBAO" OR 
"DUMP AND PROTECT" EFFECT).  THE KMT CHAIRMAN MA YING-JEOU 
HAS ALREADY BEEN TO PINGTUNG IN AN EARLY SHOWING OF SUPPORT 
FOR ITS CANDIDATE AND, ACCORDING TO TSAI, MA PLANS ANOTHER 
SWEEP INTO PINGTUNG TO URGE KMT VOTERS TO GET TO THE POLLS IF 
THEY WANT TO PRESS FOR CHANGE DUE TO DISAPPOINTMENT WITH THE 
CHEN ADMINISTRATION'S PERFORMANCE.  THE KMT CLEARLY VIEWS THE 
3 IN 1 ELECTIONS AS AN INDICATOR OF MA YING-JEOU'S POPULARITY 
AND HIS POTENTIAL FOR WINNING THE 2008 PRESIDENTIAL RACE. 
 
8.  (C) COMMENT.  SOONG'S CURRENT DIFFICULTIES HAVE THE 
POTENTIAL TO PLAY IN HER FAVOR OR AGAINST HER, DEPENDING ON 
WHETHER OR NOT THE PROSECUTORS PRESS CHARGES.  IN THE 
MEANTIME, PINGTUNG'S DPP SEES ITSELF AS THE LUCKY RECIPIENT 
OF THE ENTRY OF AN INDEPENDENT CANDIDATE WHO PROMISES TO 
SPLIT THE PAN-BLUE VOTE.  THE DPP IS BANKING ON THAT SPLIT TO 
TAKE THE MAGISTERIAL SEAT WHILE, AT THE SAME TIME, TRYING TO 
PLAY UP LOCAL POLITICS AND THE INDIVIDUAL CANDIDATES IN ORDER 
TO AVOID THE ISLAND-WIDE DISAPPOINTMENT WITH THE CHEN 
ADMINISTRATION.  THE KMT, ON THE OTHER HAND, DISMISSIVE OF 
THE INDEPENDENT CANDIDATE'S PROSPECTS, ARE HANGING ON TIGHTLY 
TO MA YING-JEOU'S COATTAILS.  END COMMENT. 
PAAL