US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI4139

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 TAIPEI 004139 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - ERIC 
BARBORIAK 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC, KMDR, KPAO, TW, ESTH, Cross Strait Politics 
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: U.S.-CHINA-TAIWAN RELATIONS, 
AVIAN FLU 
 
1. Summary: Major Chinese-language Taipei dailies 
focused their coverage October 8-11 on:  President Chen 
Shui-bian's "Double Ten" address; the follow-up probe 
into the alleged shady recruitment practices regarding 
the Kaohsiung mass rapid transit system; Taiwan's year- 
end "3-in-1" elections; and the earthquake in South 
Asia.  The pro-unification "United Daily News" ran a 
banner headline on its front page October 9 that read: 
"UDN Poll Survey: Bian's Approval Rating Drops to a New 
Low of 25 Percent."  The sub-headline added: "61 
Percent [of the Respondents] Say They Believe the DPP 
Has Lost the Ideals The Party Was Founded Upon; 58 
Percent of [Those Polled] Say the New DPP Movement 
Initiated by [The DPP's Candidate for Taipei County 
Magistrate Election] Luo Wen-jia Is Being Made [Solely] 
out of Campaign Considerations." 
 
Several newspapers reported in their inside pages 
October 8 the remarks President Chen made during an 
October 7 interview with Reuters that he believes that 
the U.S. arms procurement bill might be passed after 
Taiwan's year-end "3-in-1" elections as the KMT will no 
longer need to work with the PFP after the elections 
conclude.  The centrist "China Times," however, ran an 
exclusive news story about the stalled arms procurement 
bill on its front page October 11 topped with the 
headline: "The United States Rushes to Freeze the 
Taiwan-U.S. [Joint] War Games."  The newspaper also 
carried a news story on its page four the same day with 
the headline: "Another Voice Emerges Following 
[Washington's] Harsh Criticism against Taiwan's Arms 
Procurement: The United States Is Concerned about 
Taiwan's Obtaining Defensive Weapons." 
 
2. Several newspapers editorialized on President Chen's 
October 7 remarks to Reuters in which he said his 
current cross-Strait strategy is to "strive for delays 
while not fearing talks."  Editorials in the pro- 
independence "Liberty Times" and limited-circulation, 
pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" both 
supported Chen's stance to "go slow" with regard to 
cross-Strait talks.  An editorial in the pro- 
unification "United Daily News," however, questioned 
Chen's strategy and said Beijing has determined to deal 
with the Taiwan issue by delaying it - namely, the 
problem will be resolved naturally and no military 
force will be necessary until it reaches the time 
Taiwan is at the end of its rope.  An editorial in the 
limited-circulation, conservative, pro-unification, 
English-language "China Post" commented on Deputy 
Secretary of States Robert Zoellick's speech in New 
 
SIPDIS 
York September 21, saying his speech could be seen as a 
broad agenda for the strategic dialogue that he has 
been assigned to lead for the Bush administration in an 
attempt to alleviate Beijing's deep-seated mistrust of 
Washington.  DPP Legislator Lin Cho-shui, on the other 
hand, expressed a novel view (for a DPP member) with 
regard to the U.S. arms procurements in a commentary in 
the limited-circulation, pro-independence, English- 
language "Taipei Times."  Lin said there is a deep 
contradiction in the United States' Taiwan policy, in 
which Washington asks Taiwan to purchase extremely 
expensive weapons to protect its sovereignty while at 
the same time it refuses to acknowledge that Taiwan is 
a sovereign state.  A separate "Taipei Times" editorial 
discussed the possible outbreak of avian influenza and 
called on the international community and WHO to see 
the urgent need for Taiwan to be brought into the loop. 
End summary. 
 
1. U.S.-China-Taiwan Relations 
 
A) "There Is Nothing [for Both Sides of the Taiwan 
Strait] to Talk about Under the One China [Principle] 
and [China's] Military Intimidation" 
 
The pro-independence "Liberty Times" [circulation: 
600,000] editorialized (10/10): 
 
"President A-bian said the Beijing authorities once 
claimed that they want to `strive for talks with Taiwan 
without fearing delays,' but now he wants to modify 
this statement into `striving for delays while not 
fearing talks.'  According to Chen Shui-bian, this is a 
kind of thinking and a choice that is the most 
favorable for the people of Taiwan because it will 
benefit Taiwan least if the island appears to be 
anxious or scared. . 
 
". In reality, the purpose of China's `striving for 
talks' is to create a false image of peace across the 
Taiwan Strait in the international community and in 
front of the Taiwan people.  Of course, the move [by 
Beijing] is to cover the fact of China's increasing 
military threats against Taiwan. . 
 
"This newspaper believes that the [Taiwan] government 
should delay [cross-Strait talks] `with a clear end in 
mind.'  What are delays `with a clear end in mind'?  To 
put it in plain language, it means militarily, [Taiwan] 
must take full defensive precautions so that China will 
not dare to risk danger in desperation; in terms of 
sovereignty, [Taiwan] must insist on its sovereign 
status and not flinch from [its position of] one 
country on each side of the Taiwan Strait; in the 
economic aspect, [Taiwan] should invest in the island 
first and should stop the suicidal policy of effective 
opening; and [finally], [the government] should 
accelerate its pace in strengthening a consensus among 
the Taiwan people to push for the efforts of turning 
Taiwan into a normal country by rectifying its name and 
writing itself a new constitution. ." 
 
B) "Going Slow Is the Right Move" 
 
The pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" 
[circulation: 30,000] asserted (10/9): 
 
"During an interview with the Reuters news agency 
published on Friday, President Chen Shui-bian said that 
there was no need to rush cross-strait talks.  Chen 
said he wanted to `strive for delays while not fearing 
talks' - which was a clever turn of Beijing's earlier 
phrase about `striving for talks while not fearing 
delays.'  The slight change in wording clearly shows 
how the two sides of the Taiwan Strait differ in terms 
of their priorities on cross-strait relations. . 
 
"The truth of the matter is Chen was simply being 
polite and tactful in his interview.  What he should 
have done was cut through the word games and clearly 
say there would be no talks unless there were no 
strings attached. ." 
 
C) "Who Exactly `Fears No Delays,' Taiwan or Mainland 
China?" 
 
The conservative, pro-unification "United Daily News" 
[circulation: 400,000] wrote in an editorial (10/11): 
 
"Chen Shui-bian has said more than once that his 
current cross-Strait strategy is to `get ready to talks 
while not fearing delays.'  During a recent interview 
with Reuters, he again modified his statement into: 
`striving for delays while not fearing talks.'  But 
since Chen denies the [presence of] the `1992 
Consensus,' there seems no possibility for `talks.'  As 
a result, there is nothing left in his cross-Strait 
strategy except for the word `delays'! 
 
"The word `delay,' however, is exactly the focus of 
Beijing's current cross-Strait strategy.  When [Chinese 
President] Hu Jintao said [Beijing] `strives to talk, 
is prepared to fight while not fearing delays,' what he 
meant was that he is ready to move toward the three 
[afore-mentioned] directions simultaneously.  But it 
seems now that [cross-Strait] talks are uncertain and 
Hu has not talked about `fights' for some time, and the 
only [direction left of] `not fearing talks' has become 
`must delay.'  Exactly who is not afraid of `delays' 
and who will `delay' until the other cannot stand it 
any more, Hu or Chen, mainland China or Taiwan?  This 
is an old question: On which side does time stand? 
 
"Over the past few years, ever since Chen got elected 
for his second term, big changes have occurred with 
regard to Washington-Taipei relations and cross-Strait 
relations.  The new situation is that Beijing has 
determined to deal with the Taiwan issue by `delaying 
it'; namely, the problem will be resolved naturally and 
no military forces will be necessary when it is delayed 
until the time that Taiwan is at the end of its rope. 
Chen's `striving for delays,' without doubt, echoes 
that Beijing's plan and is just what Hu hopes for. 
Both the ruling and opposition parties in Taiwan, 
however, must pay attention to the crisis of `delays'; 
[they must realize that] Taiwan cannot afford to delay! 
 
"Beijing's discourse has also changed when it comes to 
Washington-Taipei ties.  Beijing said in the past that 
`Washington should not interfere with China's domestic 
affairs,' but now it says `China and the United States 
can co-manage security in the Taiwan Strait.'  . This 
new discourse can not only resolve the conflicts 
between Washington and Beijing but can also force 
Washington to work with Beijing to maintain the 
birdcage [of the `Anti-Secession Law.]  Washington and 
Beijing may have different views about the form of the 
birdcage, but basically they share the same position 
regarding the substantive effect of locking Taiwan 
inside the birdcage.  This is because `maintaining the 
status quo' is in the common interests of Washington 
and Beijing; even though the two might differ in their 
motives and objectives, they can still form a consensus 
on `co-management. .'" 
 
D) "U.S. `Stake' in `One China'" 
 
The conservative, pro-unification, English-language 
"China Post" [circulation: 30,000] editorialized 
(10/9): 
 
"Taiwan's continued survival as it is now - prosperous, 
democratic and beyond jurisdiction of the PRC, but not 
an independent state - depends solely on America's 
resolve to maintain the status quo.  And China is the 
only force that is ready to disrupt the status quo if 
Taiwan formally rejects its universally defined status 
as `part of China.' 
 
"Now, Washington appears ready to groom Beijing to be a 
`stakeholder' in managing global affairs, including the 
Taiwan issue.  . 
 
"On the eve of the 56th founding anniversary of the 
People's Republic of China on Oct. 1, the Bush 
administration laid out its most detailed assessment to 
date of American-Chinese ties.  In an unusual 
forthright speech on Sept. 21 in New York to the 
National Committee on U.S.-China Relations, Robert 
Zoellick, the U.S. deputy secretary of state, 
explicitly called for China to collaborate with the 
U.S. on economic matters, embrace democratic government 
and play a more responsible role in the international 
community. . 
 
"Although differences between Washington and Beijing 
are not new, Zoellick's speech could be seen as a broad 
agenda for the strategic dialogue that he has been 
assigned to lead for the Bush administration.  His 
mission is to alleviate Beijing's deep-seated mistrust 
of Washington. .  Zoellick's speech, while 
condescending and patronizing at times, reflects 
Washington's realization that it couldn't achieve peace 
unilaterally even if it could start wars that way. 
Without China's help, the U.S. has little chance to 
curb North Korea's nuclear-arms ambition or rally the 
U.N. behind its cause.  China, though not yet an ally, 
is an indispensable contributor to advancing U.S. 
policies in the world. 
 
"By calling on China to be a responsible stakeholder, 
Zoellick has tacitly claimed a U.S. `stake' in 
Beijing's `one China' principle.  Peaceful status quo 
or better cross-strait ties through dialogue is the 
common goal.  Like the U.S., Taiwan should cooperate 
with the emerging China of today, and work for the 
democratic China tomorrow." 
 
E) "US Should Support Full Sovereignty for Taiwan" 
 
DPP Legislator Lin Cho-shui commented in the pro- 
independence, English-language "Taipei Times" 
[circulation: 30,000] (10/8): 
 
". The military budget is always a large part of a 
national budget.  The only goal of spending such 
staggering amounts of money on expensive military 
equipment is to protect national sovereignty.  If we 
agree with this goal, then it is rather odd that the US 
does not want to acknowledge that Taiwan is a sovereign 
state, while at the same time it asks Taiwan to 
purchase extremely expensive weapons.  In fact, the US 
stance on this matter has seriously jeopardized 
Taiwan's national security. 
 
"The logic is that it only pays to spend so much money 
on weapons if they can be sued to protect our 
sovereignty.  But if the nation is deprived of its 
sovereignty, what would be the point of spending so 
much?  Those who firmly believe that Taiwan is a 
sovereign state will of course feel that Taiwan has to 
be well-equipped militarily.  However, as the US does 
not acknowledge our sovereignty, it is hardly 
surprising to see that many are giving up on the US and 
are opposing the arms procurement bill. . 
 
"Adopting a `one China' policy and refusing to 
acknowledge Taiwan as a sovereign state has been the 
US' policy for over three decades.  Based on its 
military expertise, the Pentagon believes Taiwanese 
have a strong civic awareness, while its slowly 
changing political policies cause the State Department 
to oppose that civic awareness. 
 
"In this case, we are undoubtedly witnessing a deep 
contradiction in the US' Taiwan policy.  Unless it is 
resolved, Taiwan will not be able to purchase the 
weapons it needs.  And not only that, warns Steve 
Chabot, chairman of the Congressional Taiwan Caucus, 
the US' unwillingness to support full sovereignty is 
tantamount to agreeing that China owns it.  This 
encourages Beijing to pursue unification by force, and 
imperils regional security.  The US should take a hard 
look at these contradictions and deal with them." 
 
2. Avian Flu 
 
"Don't Forget Taiwan" 
 
The conservative, pro-unification, English-language 
"China Post" [circulation: 30,000] commented in an 
editorial (10/9): 
 
"On Friday, representatives and experts from 80 
countries and international health organizations 
gathered in Washington D.C. for a two-day conference 
aimed at working out a common strategy for battling a 
widely expected outbreak of avian flu virus. .  The 
U.S.-led effort to coordinate a response before 
disaster strikes is a very wise idea that should be 
commended by all nations. . 
 
"While we are glad to see substantial action being 
taken to cope with this potential threat to world 
health, we would also like to remind the international 
community that Taiwan's lack of participation in 
international health organizations poses a threat to 
the success of this coordination effort. . 
 
"Now that the world is trying to learn from the lessons 
of the SARS crisis, we hope that the WHO and other 
international health organizations will see the urgent 
need for Taiwan to be brought into the loop.  If the 
WHO and other organizations fail to change this 
mistaken policy, we will see Taiwan become a weak link 
in the chain of international control and our citizens 
will inevitably suffer.  We think that no matter what 
kinds of claims Beijing thinks it has over our 
territory and population, there is absolutely no 
justification for political disputes to directly harm 
the public health of the Taiwan people. ." 
 
PAAL