US embassy cable - 05SANSALVADOR2778

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SAN SALVADOR 002778 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR INR/R/MR, EB/TPP, WHA/CEN, WHA/EPSC, WHA/PDA- 
RQUIROZ 
DEPT PASS USTR 
AMEMBASSIES FOR PAS, POL 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: KMDR, ETRD, ES, KPAO, USTR 
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: ZOELLICK IN NICARAGUA, IRAN 
 
 
"Some Thoughts on Central American-U.S. Relations," by 
columnist Mario Rosenthal in Sunday, October 09, 2005 "El 
Diario de Hoy' (ultra conservative, 100,000) 
 
"Statements last week by U.S. Undersecretary of State Robert 
Zoellick about U.S. relations with Nicaragua led me to 
reflect on recent changes.in U.S. policy relative to 
intervention in the internal affairs of other countries, 
particularly in Latin America and most especially in 
Nicaragua which, along with Haiti,.has suffered from long 
and frequent U.S. military occupation.. 
 
"The mantra of the 21st century is defending democracy. 
Battleships are no longer being sent to collect overdue 
debts.  Presidents and treasurers of debtor countries no 
longer fear taking on debts they know they cannot pay 
because they hope - and they are very rarely wrong - that 
their debts will be forgiven, and they know that the IMF, 
the World Bank, and the IADB don't have battleships. 
 
"Relations between the U.S. and Nicaragua have been strained 
since the Sandinistas won power.  During the Cold War, 
Nicaragua was allied with the Soviet Bloc..   It received 
aid via Cuba and supported the armed struggle of the FMLN in 
El Salvador.  The U.S. tried to defeat Nicaragua by force of 
arms in the Reagan era, but Congress would not provide the 
necessary support, evidently pressured by the huge anti-war 
propaganda of the Vietnam War era. 
 
"The CIA nonetheless surreptitiously supplied support to the 
Contras based in Honduras.  The effort was unsuccessful, but 
it lost importance with the fall of the Soviet Union.  Open 
hostility ended when Violeta Chamorro won the 
presidency,.but she was manipulated by the Sandinistas who 
maintained their power as an armed party.  Her mistake was 
not seeking an alliance with the conservatives led by 
Enrique Bolaos.. 
 
"In a press conference, Zoellick denounced the corrupt pact 
between Daniel Ortega and his one-time political enemy 
Arnold Alemn.to defeat Bolaos.  The fear is this will open 
the way for Ortega to win the presidency, which would 
negatively affect U.S.-Nicarguan relations.  [Zoellick] also 
said the visas of supporters of Alemn and the Sandinistas 
would be cancelled and that he would immediately revoke a 
$175 million loan to Nicaragua.  There is neither money nor 
refuge for the corrupt in my country, he said." 
 
"The Hard Line Option Toward Iran," by Barry Rubin in 
Sunday, October 09, 2005 El Diario de Hoy (ultra- 
conservative, 110,000).  Column supplied by Project 
Syndicate. 
 
e. 
 
"The election of the hard-line mayor of Teheran, Mahmoud 
Ahmadinejab, as the next Iranian president will likely 
worsen relations with the West and lead to international 
isolation for Iran.. 
 
"It is clear that Ahmadinejad has popular support.  That he 
has presented himself as a populist, spoken of helping the 
poor, condemned the working of the government, and acted as 
if he were a candidate of the opposition is irrelevant.  In 
the end, he won official support against the other hard-line 
candidates.   The regime played its cards brilliantly - 
converting Hashemi Rafsanjani. into a symbol of `the system' 
and portraying its own man as the rebel.  It used anti- 
government sentiments to renew its own mandate.. 
 
"Admadinejad represents the young revolutionary activists 
who brought down the Shah.  He was directly involved with 
the taking of U.S. hostages in Iran..  Most worrisome of all 
he is close to the most extremist groups in Iran..  Still, 
fear that an even more radical leader has assumed power in 
Iran are mitigated by two factors: one,  Adhmadinejad will 
likely concentrate on internal issues..., trying to raise 
the standard of living of the poorest Iraqis; second, the 
same group that has had control since the revolution still 
controls ideological and foreign affairs.  The President 
actually has less power than it appears.. 
 
"Nonetheless, Admadinejad's election makes clear the 
challenge that Iran represents for .stability in the Middle 
East...  It sends a signal to extremist elements in Iran and 
their terrorist clients - Hezbollah., Hamas and Islamic 
Jihad., and other small groups working against Saudi Arabia, 
Iraq and other Arab states - that they have the green light 
to launch attacks.  Seen from the outside, Iran often 
appears relatively moderate, but covertly it has been the 
most important sponsor of world terrorism.  At times certain 
Iranian officials may have acted on their own.. Now they'll 
feel they have more freedom to do so. 
 
"Admadinejad has also openly supported Iran's nuclear arms 
program..  As the president of a nuclear-armed Iraq, he'd 
probably use the weapons. as a means of  nuclear blackmail.. 
It is also likely that Ahmadinejad will move more decisively 
to further destabilize Iraq.. Iran is already sending agents 
to Iraq and supporting those who would turn it into an 
Iranian clone..  A more militant posture by Iran will 
increase friction with Iraq and generate more anti-U.S. 
violence. 
 
"The electoral results in Iran are dangerous. and will be a 
challenge not only for the U.S. but for Europe as well." 
 
BARCLAY