US embassy cable - 05CAIRO7793

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 007793 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR ABRAMS/POUNDS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/11/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, EG 
SUBJECT: EGYPT'S PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS TAKE SHAPE AS 
NATIONAL OPPOSITION FRONT FORMED 
 
 
Classified by ECPO Counselor John Desrocher for reasons 1.4 
(b) and (d). 
 
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Summary 
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1. (C) A presidential decree issued on October 10 specifies 
the dates for Egypt's forthcoming parliamentary elections, 
which will be held in three rounds in November and early 
December, following a rough geographical pattern.  Meanwhile, 
a new "National Front" announced on October 8 brings together 
the most diverse array of opposition forces seen in Egypt's 
recent political history, including the Muslim Brotherhood, 
the Kifaya protest movement, and most of the significant 
opposition parties, with the pointed exception of Ayman 
Nour's Ghad Party.  While bringing this eclectic collection 
together is itself an achievement, the challenge of keeping 
the group together, and acting in concert, for the next eight 
weeks will likely prove difficult if not impossible.  End 
summary. 
 
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Dates (Finally) Set 
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2. (SBU) Ending weeks of tentative information and 
speculation, a presidential decree issued late on October 10 
sets the timetable for Egypt's forthcoming legislative 
elections.  Elections for the People's Assembly, last held in 
2000, will be staged in three rounds in November and early 
December. 
 
-- The first round, on November 9, will cover Cairo and Giza, 
the Delta province of Manoufiya, the Upper Egypt provinces of 
Assiyut, Beni Swayf, and Minya, and the Western Desert 
provinces of Marsa Matrouh and New Valley.   The tentative 
runoff date for the first round will be on November 15. 
 
-- The second round, on November 20, will cover Alexandria 
and the Delta provinces of Behira, Ismailia, Port Said, Suez, 
Qalyubia, and Gharbia, as well as the upper Egypt provinces 
of Fayyoum and Qena.  The runoff date is November 26. 
 
-- The third round, on December 1, will cover the Delta 
provinces of Daqhaliya, Sharqiya, Kafr el-Sheikh, and Dumyat, 
North and South Sinai, the Red Sea province, and the Upper 
Egypt provinces of Sohag and Aswan.  The runoff date is 
December 7. 
 
3. (SBU) Runoffs were not uncommon in the 2000 parliamentary 
elections, as the law stipulates candidates must obtain an 
absolute majority in order to win. 
 
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Opposition Forms a Unity Front 
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4. (C) Meanwhile, after months of haggling among a diverse 
group of opposition parties and political movements, former 
Prime Minister Aziz Sedky and Wafd Party President No'man 
Gom'a announced on October 8 the formation of a "National 
Front" that would ostensibly unify opposition forces, 
including both the banned Muslim Brotherhood (MB) and the 
Kefaya protest movement, against the ruling National 
Democratic Party.  While the impact and durability of the 
front remains to be seen, its formation represents a 
breakthrough. 
 
5. (C) For months, agreement was blocked by the stubborn 
opposition of the leftist Tagammu' Party to the inclusion of 
the MB within the front.  The Tagammu' had alternatively 
proposed that Ayman Nour's Ghad Party be included in the 
front, but the suggestion was anathema to the Wafd's No'man 
Gom'a, who has long maintained a highly personal and public 
feud with Nour, dating back to Nour's previous membership in 
the Wafd.  It is unclear how the Tagammu was ultimately 
persuaded to climb down, but we note that party 
Secretary-General Hussein Abdel Razek, rather than party 
 
SIPDIS 
President Rif'at Said, long an outspoken MB nemesis, appears 
on the National Front press release.   Ayman Nour's Ghad 
party has been pointedly excluded, a victory for Gom'a. 
 
6. (U) The full roster of the National Front appears below: 
 
Licensed political parties: 
 
-- Wafd 
-- Tagammu' 
-- Nasserist 
-- Labour 
 
Unlicensed parties 
-- Wasat 
-- Tahaluf 
-- Karama 
Other movements 
 
-- Kifaya 
-- The Muslim Brotherhood 
-- The "National Grouping" (Including former PM Aziz Sedky, 
tabloid publisher Mustafa Bakry, and academic Hasan Naf'a) 
 
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Comment 
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7. (C) The National Front will face two formidable 
challenges.  The first, and largest, will be keeping together 
such a broad coalition, representing many contradictory 
ideologies and comprising many large egos and uncompromising 
personalities, and getting this group to coordinate its 
message and activities.  This challenge strikes us as 
seemingly insurmountable, and defections of at least some of 
the members seem inevitable.  Second, even if the group does 
manage to maintain some degree of cohesion, it will still 
face an uphill battle in making an impact against the 
retooled and increasingly disciplined NDP juggernaut, now 
apparently firmly under the control of Gamal Mubarak and his 
band of ambitious young technocrats.  End comment. 
 
 
RICCIARDONE