US embassy cable - 05WARSAW3578

UNCLAS WARSAW 003578 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PL, Polish Elections 
SUBJECT: TUSK EDGES OUT KACZYNSKI IN FIRST PRESIDENTIAL 
ROUND 
 
REF: WARSAW 3557 AND PREVIOUS 
 
1.  (SBU) Summary:  As predicted, Civic Platform's (PO's) 
Donald Tusk prevailed in the first-round of Poland's 
presidential election on October 9, and will face Lech 
Kaczynski in a second round of balloting on October 23. 
Despite only a three point margin over his rival, Tusk has 
bounced in post-election polls that show him beating 
Kaczynski by ten points.  Election fatigue may explain the 
meager turnout (less than 50 percent).  Populist Andrzej 
Lepper came in third, polling a surprising fifteen percent. 
The next government will not be named until after the October 
23 run-off.  End summary. 
 
2.  Donald Tusk won the first round of Poland's presidential 
election on October 9, beating Warsaw mayor and Law and 
Justice (PiS) candidate, Lech Kaczynski, by a slender three 
points.  Tusk won 36.33 percent of the vote, just short of a 
500,000 vote plurality over Kaczynski with 33.10 percent. 
Andrzej Lepper of Self-Defense came in a surprsingly strong 
third place, with 15.11 percent, and Marek Borowski, the 
strongest center-left candidate, won only 10.33 percent. 
Voter turnout was an all time low in post-communist 
presidential elections, with less than 50 percent of eligible 
voters participating. 
 
3.  Tusk and Kaczynski will face off in a second round 
presidential election on Sunday, October 23.  Two polls 
released after the first round give a bigger electoral bounce 
to Tusk, who outpolled Kaczynski by ten and twelve points, 
respectively.  Tusk won in ten out of sixteen provinces, with 
a lopsided majority in urban areas and among higher educated 
Poles. 
 
4.  Kaczynski won decisively in eastern and southern Poland, 
an area that in previous elections was a stronghold for 
former President Lech Walesa.  Walesa, who has endorsed Tusk, 
may be sent out to stump for Tusk in the coming weeks, but 
questioned whether he would be effective.  Walesa told Polish 
radio that he was bitter over the low turnout, and the need 
for an expensive, second round of elections. 
 
5.  Attention is now focused on the October 23 run-off, and 
whether third party voters will turn out in large numbers for 
either Tusk or Kaczynski.  President Kwasniewski, widely 
viewed as a quiet supporter of Tusk, hinted that he might 
endorse a candidate before the second round.  Center-left 
voters are likelier to gravitate towards Tusk, more from 
their dislike of Lech Kaczynski than from their enthusiasm 
for the PO candidate.  Fully seventy percent of those who 
voted for Self Defense's Lepper are men.  They are expected 
to break disproportionately for Kaczynski, who once again 
warned voters that PO and Tusk -- ironically, of course, 
PiS's coalition partner in governing Poland -- are risky free 
marketeers who want to tear apart Poland's social welfare 
net. 
 
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Whither the Coalition 
--------------------- 
 
6.  (SBU) PiS official Kazimierz Ujazdowski told DCM and 
PolCouns on October 11 that although there is no question 
that PO and PiS will form Poland's next government, if the 
campaign descends into harmful personal attacks it will make 
for more difficult cooperation between the two partners.  On 
October 10 PiS candidate for prime minister Kazimierz 
Marcinkiewicz announced the broad outlines of the next 
government, focusing on curbing public sector corruption and 
"solidarity" with Poles who rely on the government's social 
safety net.  PO party leader Jan Rokita, the anticipated 
deputy prime minister, said he was "eighty percent in 
agreement" with the PiS plan.  However, economic policy, and 
how to maintain or dismantle that social safety net falls 
squarely in the tricky twenty percent separating the coaltion 
partners. 
 
7.  (SBU) The Sejm is likely to convene its first official 
meeting on October 19, with Marek Belka continuing as a lame 
duck PM until the new government is announced in the days 
following the presidential run-off.  PiS official Ujazdowski 
told us that the Marcinkiewicz government will definitely be 
in place by November 1 at latest.  He reminded us that the 
government begins to function as soon as it is named, and 
does not need to wait for the Sejm confidence vote.  The new 
president will assume his office on December 23. 
 
Hillas