US embassy cable - 05NEWDELHI7909

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 007909 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/11/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, KJUS, PHUM, PREL, IN, Indian Domestic Politics 
SUBJECT: CONGRESS ON DEFENSIVE OVER SUPREME COURT DECISION 
 
REF: NEW DELHI 7759 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Geoff Pyatt for Reasons 1.4 (B, D) 
 
1.  (C) Summary.  On October 7, the Indian Supreme Courts 
ruled that the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) May 22 
dissolution of the Bihar State Assembly and its declaration 
of President's rule was unconstitutional.  However, the Court 
refused to cancel the October 18-November 19 state elections, 
stating that it did not want to interfere with an already 
scheduled contest.  The decision energized the NDA, which had 
filed the suit, and the BJP leadership called for the 
resignation of the Bihar State Governor and the Prime 
Minister.  Already reeling from criticism of its economic and 
foreign policy by opponents on the left and the right 
(Reftel) and thrown further on the defensive by the decision, 
Congress is likely to become more cautious in the weeks 
leading up to the Bihar vote.  End Summary. 
 
The Bihar Muddle 
---------------- 
 
2.  (U) The February 2005 State Assembly elections produced a 
three way split with no clear winner.  Of Bihar's 243 seats, 
the BJP and its Janata Dal (United) allies won the largest 
number (92), while Congress (10 seats) and its Rashtriya 
Janata Dal(RJD) allies were close behind with 85 seats.  The 
newly-formed Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) of Steel Minister Ram 
Vilas Paswan won 29 seats. 
 
3.  (U) When Congress and the RJD failed to cobble together a 
majority, Governor Buta Singh on May 21 recommended that the 
United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government dissolve the 
house and declare President's Rule.  Prime Minister Manmohan 
Singh called the cabinet into session the same night to 
approve the Governor's recommendation and send it to 
President Abdul Kalam for ratification.  In its suit, the NDA 
argued that New Delhi rushed to implement the Governor's 
recommendation to prevent JD(U) Chief and NDA candidate for 
Chief Minister Nitish Kumar from staking his own claim to 
form the Bihar government. 
 
The Supreme Court Ruling 
------------------------ 
 
3.  (U) On October 7, the Supreme Court ruled that President 
Kalam's order dissolving the Bihar assembly was 
unconstitutional.  However, the court refused to reinstate 
the assembly or stop the election process already in motion. 
Expensive and cumbersome four stage state elections are 
scheduled to commence on October 18 and end on November 19. 
The Court argued that established procedures dictated that 
the courts not interfere with elections once they have been 
scheduled by the Election Commission.  The Court also noted 
it will not be in session from October 8 until October 18, so 
it determined it would not have sufficient time to decide on 
the merits of canceling the election. 
 
The Opposition is Jubilant 
-------------------------- 
 
4.  (U) The opposition BJP, which had filed the court case, 
welcomed the decision as a vindication of their stance that 
the UPA had acted in "indecent haste," and with a clear 
political motive.  BJP General Secretary Arun Jaitley accused 
PM Singh of "misleading the country," declaring that "the 
prime minister and the Home Minister cannot escape 
responsibility.  After all, it was the PM who misled the 
country."  Another BJP General Secretary Pramod Mahajan 
stated that "either Buta Singh should tender his resignation 
or be sacked for recommending the dissolution."  Nitish Kumar 
called for PM Singh's resignation as well, stating that "Dr. 
Singh should step down immediately.  We stand vindicated.  We 
had said the house was dissolved unconstitutionally and the 
Supreme Court has accepted our contention."  Kumar confirmed 
that the NDA will make the Supreme Court Decision the 
centerpiece of its election campaign. 
 
Congress Thrown on the Defensive 
-------------------------------- 
 
5.  (U) The Supreme Court Judgment caught Congress and its 
UPA allies by surprise.  PM Singh emphasized that "I do not 
disown my responsibility as Prime Minister," but refused 
further comment as "we still do not know the reasons behind 
the verdict," and said it was not fair to put all the blame 
on Governor Singh.  Congress President Sonia Gandhi defended 
Buta Singh from attacks that he was too subservient to 
Congress, saying disingenuously "I don't think that Governors 
are involved in politics."  The Congress leadership is 
deliberating how to handle the issue, and there is increasing 
press speculation that Governor Singh could get his walking 
papers.  Congress has been roundly criticized for 
manipulating pliable governors to dismiss non-Congress 
governments.  The October 6 attempted assassination of senior 
BJP leaders Ravi Shankar Prasad while campaigning in Bihar, 
provided a further boost to the BJP campaign in the state. 
The party criticized the lack of security and emphasized that 
it would restore law and order.  In addition to Bihar, 
Congress-installed governors seated UPA governments in Goa 
and Jharkhand. 
 
Comment:  Sailing in Turbulent Waters 
------------------------------------- 
 
6.  (C) The Supreme Court decision comes when Congress ranks 
are already reeling from virulent criticism of the UPA's 
anti-Iran vote in IAEA and its modest yet delayed economic 
reform agenda.  The Court decision has hurt the PM's "Mr. 
Clean" image and provided the opposition NDA with a 
ready-made issue that could revive its Bihar election 
campaign.  Even before the decision, the UPA was losing 
confidence in Bihar and there was increasing talk of 
impending defeat.  Congress now faces renewed attacks by the 
Communists on its Left and the a re-energized NDA on its 
right.  The result will likely be a party and an alliance 
increasingly on the defensive, more cautious, and inclined to 
move slowly on economic and foreign policy issues the USG 
cares about. 
 
7.  (U) Visit New Delhi's Classified Website: 
(http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/sa/newdelhi/) 
Mulford