US embassy cable - 05MINSK1236

C O N F I D E N T I A L MINSK 001236 
 
SIPDIS 
 
KIEV FOR USAID 
DEPT ALSO FOR INR/B 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/04/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, BO 
SUBJECT: Who is Alexander Milinkevich? 
 
REF: MINSK 1205 
 
Classified by Ambassador George Krol for Reasons 1.4 B & D. 
 
1.  (SBU) Summary: The Congress of Democratic Forces of 
Belarus nominated physics professor, former deputy mayor of 
Grodno and NGO activist Alexander Milinkevich to run in the 
2006 presidential elections against current president 
Aleksandr Lukashenko.  A cultured, quiet man with Western 
exposure, a network of NGO supporters in the regions and 
few political party ties, Milinkevich is a relatively new 
face among Belarusian opposition politicians. In light of 
the unpopularity of all political parties among most 
Belarusians, Milinkevich's candidacy may give him an 
advantage against Lukashenko.  But he will need to overcome 
the fear many conservative Belarusians might have that he 
is a nationalist, pro-western radical who will only worsen 
relations with Russia. Questions remain as to whether 
Milinkevich has the political smarts, courage and charisma 
to reach out to the Belarusian people and to present a 
solid challenge to Lukashenko on a very unequal playing 
field.  End Summary. 
 
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Educational and Professional Background 
--------------------------------------- 
 
2.  (C) On October 2, the Congress of Democratic Forces 
narrowly chose Alexander MiliHQd NGO Ratusha, which was closed 
by the GOB in 2003 but continues to operate.  During the 
last presidential election, Milinkevich served as campaign 
manager for Syamyon Domash, a position for which he 
routinely received criticism due to his heavy handed and 
ineffective management style.  From 1990-1996, he was the 
deputy mayor of the Grodno City Executive Committee in 
charge of culture, education, health care, sports, youth 
affairs and international relations, but left the post 
before the 1996 referendum that amended the constitution to 
give Lukashenko more power.  Born on July 25, 1947, in the 
Grodno region of Belarus, Alexander Milinkevich graduated 
from the Physics and Mathematics Faculty of the Grodno 
Teachers' Training Institute and holds a doctoral 
candidate's degree in physics and mathematics.  Milinkevich 
has written 65 scientific works, mostly in quantum 
electronics and laser technologies.  He speaks five foreign 
languages, including Belarusian, Russian, English, Polish 
and French. 
 
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What Is He Really Like? 
----------------------- 
 
3.  (C) Milinkevich is a quite, calm man who works best in 
small groups, and needs practice in front of large 
audiences.  After the congress, some delegates said he 
would be a good president in a normal democracy, but lacks 
the fire to successfully challenge Lukashenko.  Milinkevich 
lacks public speaking proficiency as evidenced by his weak 
and unenthusiastic speech at the opposition congress.  He 
is deeply interested in familiarizing Belarusians with 
their pre-Soviet history as evidenced during his tenure as 
the deputy mayor of Grodno where he promoted many cultural 
and restoration programs.  He is deeply interested in the 
history of the region and often gives Emboffs historical 
tours of Grodno.  During his campaign speech, he said his 
outlook was influenced by the fact that his grandfather was 
jailed by Polish authorities for advocating the use of 
Belarusian in schools. 
 
-------------------------------- 
Strong Western Ties and Exposure 
-------------------------------- 
 
4.  (C) Milinkevich privately credits the U.S. with saving 
his life.  Milinkevich suffers from kidney problems and in 
early 2005 needed to have an operation in Warsaw.  Not 
having the money to pay for the procedure, Milinkevich 
approached Post to ask for assistance and Post was able to 
fund the operation via the U.S. NGO IRI.  The operation was 
a success and Milinkevich expressed his gratitude to the 
U.S. for saving his life. 
 
5.  (SBU) Milinkevich has had significant exposure to the 
West.  In 1994, while he was on the Grodno City Executive 
Committee, he traveled to various states in the U.S., 
including Oklahoma, to participate in the USIS sponsored 
International Visitor Single Country Project entitled, 
"City Administration in the U.S."  While head of the NGO 
Ratusha in 1998, Milinkevich participated in a three week 
U.S. sponsored Community Connection Program for NGO leaders 
at the University of California - Fresno.  In 2000, 
Milinkevich attended the Senior Executive Seminar on 
transnational security concerns at The George C. Marshall 
European Center for Security Studies.  He has also studied 
state development issues and economics at European 
institutions, including the University of Montpellier in 
France.  Milinkevich has long been Post's main contact in 
Grodno and western Belarus. 
 
----------------------------- 
Political Pluses and Problems 
----------------------------- 
 
6. (U) Acting largely outside the party system, Milinkevich 
is supported by a network of civil society groups that he 
built up while working at various NGO resource centers. 
Milinkevich enjoyed strong support from the younger 
participants in the congress.  His many contacts will help 
the opposition reach out to the mass population during the 
election campaign, which is something the political parties 
thus far have been reluctant to do. 
 
7. (U) Despite trying to remain independent of the parties, 
Milinkevich has not been able to separate himself entirely 
from the unpopular connotations associated with the main 
party that supports him, the Belarusian National Front 
(BNF).  Lukashenko - and other potential presidential 
contenders from the opposition - could use Milinkevich's 
nomination by the BNF to label him as a radical 
nationalist, thus alienating pro-Russian voters. 
Milinkevich has tried to reach out to these voters, but 
they are furthered alienated by Milinkevich's insistence 
that Belarus join Europe, thereby implying Belarus faces a 
choice between Russia and Europe.  Milinkevich stresses, 
however, that there is no need to choose; Belarus can be a 
part of Europe as Russia should be as well [more detail on 
Milinkevich's platform in septel]. 
 
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Comment 
------- 
 
8. (SBU) Milinkevich's nomination puts a relatively new 
face at the head of the Belarusian political opposition. 
As a man whose strength comes from the regions not Minsk, 
Milinkevich will need to show tact and skill to keep the 
Minsk based opposition forces and leaders behind him.  Some 
of those leaders still feel hurt by Milinkevich's success 
in narrowly winning the contest.  Some even accused him of 
not playing by the rules set by the parties.  But the real 
test for Milinkevich is not whether he can win over the 
opposition but whether he has the political skill, courage 
and charisma to reach out to the mass of Belarusians who 
remain highly ambivalent about the opposition.  In light of 
regime efforts to inhibit the opposition from communicating 
with the people, Milinkevich will need energy, 
organization, resources and courage to make himself known 
to the people.  He will also need to develop and hone a 
message that will appeal to the Belarusian public. 
Milinkevich brings with him a network of young and 
energized NGO supporters, some leadership experience from 
his time as deputy mayor of Grodno, and a clean political 
 
slate relatively free of party associations.  But he will 
need a strong and daring campaign strategy to challenge the 
Lukashenko regime on what will be very unequal playing 
field. 
 
KROL 
 
 
 
Other info you may wish to draw from for the bio paras: 
 
Born on July 25, 1947 in Grodno, Belarus, Alexander 
Milinkevich graduated from the Physics and Mathematics 
Faculty of the Grodno Teaches' Training Institute and holds 
a doctoral candidate's degree in physics and mathematics. 
He served as a researcher with the Physics InsQ5ZQQTQn((ch 
speaks five foreign languages and wrote 65 scientific 
works, mostly in quantum electronics and laser 
technologies. 
 
From 1990-1996, he was the deputy head of the Grodno City 
Executive Committee in charge of culture, education, health 
care, sports, youth affairs and international relations, 
but left the post before the 1996 referendum that amended 
the constitution.  In 1996-1997, Milinkevich represented 
the Belarusian Soros Foundation in Grodno.  From 1996 until 
it was closed down in 2003, Milinkevich chaired the Grodno- 
based NGO Ratusha.  Milinkevich served as campaign manager 
for Syamyon Domash in the 2001 presidential election.  In 
2002, he served as the chairman of the Belarusian 
Association of Resource Centers.