US embassy cable - 05CAIRO7783

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 007783 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/10/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KDEM, EG, OVIP 
SUBJECT: PDAS ELIZABETH CHENEY'S MEETINGS WITH EGYPTIAN 
OPPOSITION LEADERS 
 
Classified by DCM Stuart Jones for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
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Summary 
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1. (C) During their September 27-30 visit to Cairo, NEA PDAS 
Cheney and DAS Scott Carpenter met with the leadership of 
Egypt's two strongest opposition political parties, the Wafd 
and the Ghad.   From both, they heard strong complaints about 
the way the GOE and the ruling National Democratic Party 
continue to tilt the playing field against them.  Both 
parties also expressed doubts about the commitment of the NDP 
to sustained political reform.   PDAS Cheney sought specifics 
from both parties on obstacles they continue to face and 
urged the Wafd and the Ghad to take full advantage of any 
expansions in political space to help transform Egypt into a 
functioning multiparty democracy.  End summary. 
 
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Uncertain Tomorrow 
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2. (C) PDAS Cheney and DAS Carpenter met on September 28 with 
the leadership of Egypt's relatively new Ghad (Tomorrow) 
Party.  First Deputy President Nagui Ghatrifi, Party Vice 
Presidents Hisham Kassem and Wael Nowara, and Gamila Ismail, 
wife of Party President Ayman Nour, welcomed PDAS Cheney and 
DAS Carpenter to one of the party's Cairo offices.  (Note: 
Party President Ayman Nour regretted at the last minute due 
to the critical illness of his father.  End note.)   The Ghad 
leaders described their "uphill battle" to make an impact on 
Egypt's political landscape in spite of the many hurdles they 
alleged the GOE had thrown in their path, particularly the 
arrest and continuing trial of Ayman Nour. 
 
3. (C) The Ghad maintains that the case against Nour is 
politically motivated.  Party VP Kassem told PDAS Cheney the 
GOE's management of the case has been a "fundamental denial 
of due process."  Kassem admitted that, although the Ghad 
aspires to build strong institutional foundations, the party 
remains on an unstable footing and would not be tenable 
without Nour. 
 
4. (C) Despite Nour's legal woes, he placed second to Mubarak 
in the September 7 presidential election, with an official 
result of 500,000 of 7 million votes cast.  The Ghad 
leadership claimed to PDAS Cheney that Nour's actual showing 
was significantly higher, and was manipulated downward by a 
politically biased Presidential Election Commission.  The 
Ghad leaders also complained of an array of tactics they 
alleged the GOE was employing to undermine the new party. 
These tactics include threatening party leaders and 
contributors with tax audits and using State Security to 
intimidate party leaders with heavy handed surveillance and 
questioning.  Without major reforms in the way parties are 
financed and gain access to the media, as well as 
improvements in the legal environment (particularly the 
repeal of the emergency law), real progress toward democracy 
will remain elusive, they contended. 
 
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Wafd: Egypt's Old Opposition 
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5. (C) On September 29, PDAS Cheney and DAS Carpenter visited 
the headquarters of the Wafd, Egypt's venerable, if faded, 
political party.  Party President No'man Gom'a, who surprised 
observers with a particularly weak third place showing in the 
September 7 presidential elections, welcomed his guests and, 
after rambling opening remarks on the bilateral relationship, 
accused the GOE and the NDP of electoral fraud.  The people 
have no confidence in the political process, Gom'a asserted, 
as evidenced by the low turnout in the elections.  The ruling 
NDP is dominated by "billionaries" and "steel tycoons" (an 
obvious reference to Ahmed Ezz) he complained. 
 
6. (C) The Wafd, Gom'a asserted, is Egypt's largest "real" 
political party, with quality candidates and a solid 
political program, but lacks the financial resources to 
compete effectively.  Gom'a described twin challenges posed 
by the Muslim Brotherhood (expected to field up to 100 
independent candidates for parliament) and the entrenched 
ruling NDP.  The MB challenge is relatively easy to manage, 
Gom'a claimed, compared to the challenge posed by the 
entrenched ruling class.  (Note: The Wafd has always taken a 
pragmatic approach toward the MB, even jointly fielding 
successful parliamentary lists in the 1980's.  The Wafd's 
willingness to deal with the MB has led to an impasse in its 
efforts to form an opposition coalition - leftist parties 
remain implacably hostile toward the Islamists.  End note.) 
 
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Seize the Day 
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7. (C) In both meetings, PDAS Cheney urged opposition parties 
to take full advantage of openings in Egypt's political 
space.  The USG believes Egypt needs a number of strong 
political parties in order to achieve its goal of multiparty 
democracy.  She assured her interlocutors that the U.S. 
commitment to promote democratic reform in the Arab world was 
a fundamental strategic pillar of our policy.  PDAS Cheney 
also rebutted Gom'a's complaints, folded into his opening 
monologue, about U.S. policy in Iraq and Israel-Palestine. 
 
8. (C) On Iraq, PDAS Cheney noted that the violence is being 
caused by terrorists who do not want the Iraqi people to be 
free, and who are willing to kill anyone to stop Iraq,s 
progress towards democracy. Arab states and political parties 
have a duty to condemn such acts and to work together to 
stamp them out.  On Israel-Palestine, PDAS Cheney reminded 
Gom'a that the U.S. had played a strongly supportive role in 
the withdrawal of Israeli settlers and forces from Gaza and 
was now working to help Abu Mazen impose order and security 
there.  Arab states can and should do much more in the latter 
effort, she added. 
 
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Comment 
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9. (C) The visits of PDAS Cheney and DAS Carpenter to Egypt's 
two strongest opposition parties sent an important signal 
about U.S. support for a multiparty democratic system -- a 
concept which has yet to truly get off the ground in Egypt. 
Discussions with both parties also revealed their continuing 
weakness and many disadvantages in the face of the ruling 
NDP's electoral leviathan. 
 
10. (C) Both the Ghad and the Wafd face serious leadership 
challenges -- Ayman Nour remains beset with legal woes and is 
viewed as slick or crooked by many influential circles. 
Other key Ghad figures, such as the prominent former MP Mona 
Makram Ebeid and well-heeled businessman Mohammad Mansour, 
dropped out when the political heat grew unbearable.  The 
Wafd's leadership challenges were neatly demonstrated in the 
encounter with No'man Gom'a, who indulged in a number of 
lengthy and disjointed monologues and virtually ignored his 
assembled central board members.  Internal maneuvers to 
remove Gom'a, believed to be deeply unpopular with the party 
rank-and-file, have long been rumored but somehow never 
materialize.   End comment. 
 
11.  (U)  PDAS Cheney cleared this message. 
 
 
RICCIARDONE