US embassy cable - 05ISLAMABAD15208

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ISLAMABAD 015208 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT. PASS TO USAID 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/09/2015 
TAGS: AEMR, CASC, EAID, MASS, PK, PREL, SENV, Earthquake 
SUBJECT: PAKISTAN EARTHQUAKE: WHAT THEY NEED 
 
REF: ISLAMABAD 15130 
 
Classified By: Derived from DSCG 05-01, B 
 
 
1.  (c) Summary and Comment:  The scale of devastation from 
yesterday's earthquake is becoming increasingly clear as 
information comes in from remote, outlying provinces.  The 
Government now estimates that the number of fatalities could 
range between 32,000 and 40,000 -- and possibly more. 
Villages have been wiped out by the quake itself or by 
resulting landslides and large areas of the north have been 
rendered inaccessible by damage to roads.  It is now clear 
that a sizable, coordinated effort will be needed to provide 
relief and to support reconstruction.  Having returned from a 
tour of the north, Musharraf's top priorities are helicopter 
lift, tents, blankets and medicine. Other donors have joined 
us in assembling relief packages, but Pakistani officials 
have made clear that they will need significant helicopter 
capacity to deliver assistance -- something they will likely 
need for the foreseeable future and that the United States is 
uniquely positioned to provide.  Given U.S. interests in 
Pakistan and the region, it is imperative that we come 
forward with a substantial and flexible relief package.  We 
have an opportunity to win considerable goodwill -- 
particularly within affected populations in the Northern 
Areas, Pakistani Kashmir and the NWFP -- and to demonstrate 
that we are a strategic partner they can count on.  In line 
with our other commitments to Pakistan, we recommend we seize 
the high ground and be prepared to announce an assistance 
package of at least $20 million, and be the first off the 
block to say that we are interested not only in relief, but 
also rebuilding.  (By way of comparison, we would note that 
the appropriation for Tsunami relief totaled $901 million.) 
End Summary and Comment. 
 
The Toll 
-------- 
 
2.  (u) While the GOP is literally digging out from the 
wreckage of Saturday morning's earthquake -- the worst in 
Pakistan's recorded history -- it is clear that the scope of 
Saturday morning's earthquake will be a major humanitarian 
disaster, far exceeding initial estimates.  On Sunday 
morning, GOP officials went public with a figure of roughly 
18,000 fatalities, but they are telling the international 
donor community their own estimates are 32,000 fatalities, 
and they realistically assume that figure could rise to 
40,000.  Four million people will be affected by quake 
damage, split roughly between the North West Frontier 
Province and Azad Jammu-Kashmir/Northern Areas. 
International media coverage has focused on discrete 
incidents of damage and building collapse in the major urban 
areas of Islamabad, Rawalpindi and Lahore, but it is already 
clear from phone reports that the scale of devastation is 
considerably greater in the inaccessible mountainous area 
near the epicenter, where there are reports of entire 
villages being leveled by landslides.  Landslides have closed 
many of the mountain roadways that form the principal means 
of access to the hill communities near the epicenter; while 
the GOP optimistically estimates they will reopen most within 
several days, some of the worst hit could take weeks to 
repair.  Here in Islamabad, donor coordination has been 
hampered by an inability to move back into the high rises 
where many UN bodies and ngo's have their offices, until 
their structural soundness has been confirmed. 
 
3.  (u) The Embassy and American Citizen community in 
Pakistan has largely been spared.  Our Consular Section's 
warden system, as well as a quick check of the hospitals here 
in Islamabad, has uncovered no American Citizen casualties. 
We have confirmed that the entire American staff of the 
Embassy, as well as TDY staff, is unhurt.  We have confirmed 
that no FSN employees were killed or seriously injured; as 
best we know, only one FSN family member (the son of the 
DCM's driver) was killed, in the Azad area near the 
epicenter.  It appears the Embassy's physical plant -- 
chancery, residence, housing compound and leased and owned 
residential properties -- did not sustain significant damage. 
 
Identified Needs 
---------------- 
 
4.  (u) U.N. agencies are working together to put together a 
flash appeal for donor contributions that they plan to 
release on Monday evening.  Our understanding is the flash 
appeal will focus on relief needs but also contain a 
preliminary assessment of the reconstruction needs.  The GOP 
has outlined its near term priorities to the donor community 
as the following: 
-- shelter for up to four million affected.  (Embassy Note: 
the majority of quake damage occurred in a mountainous region 
where temperatures will drop significantly within about a 
month.  There will be significant need for winter-weight 
tents, building supplies, and possibly prefab housing); 
-- health support -- hospitals (both civil and military), 
mobile hospitals, surgical supplies, and disease control 
supplies; 
-- water (containers, purification equipment and water itself) 
-- search and rescue support. 
 
5.  (u) In the near term, there is also a need for earth 
moving equipment to help clear roads to the affected areas. 
It is possible that the damage will prompt a flow of 
displaced persons out of the mountains south to the plains 
around Islamabad and Rawalpindi, in which case supplies to 
support camps will be needed.  The U.N. country team, led by 
UNDAC (UN Disaster Assessment and Coordination) has organized 
itself around the following clusters of priorities, with the 
indicated body in the lead:  health (WHO) nutrition (UNICEF); 
water and sanitation (UNICEF), shelter (International 
Federation of the Red Cross and Red Crescent societies); 
logistics (WFP); emergency telecommunications (WFP); 
protection (UNHCR) and camp management (UNHCR). 
 
U.S. Response to Date 
--------------------- 
 
6.  (u) On Sunday, the Embassy released a press statement 
outlining our initial contribution to help Pakistan address 
this disaster: 
-- an immediate contribution of $500,000 for emergency relief 
supplier, to be provided through NGOs 
-- eight U.S. military helicopters to assist in bringing in 
emergency relief to communities and villages affected by the 
earthquake. 
-- A seven-person Disaster Assistant Response Team (DART), 
scheduled to arrive on October 10 and 11, which will assess 
humanitarian needs, assist with targeting and coordination of 
USG assistance, and provide technical assistance as needed; 
-- Relief commodities being airlifted to Pakistan from USG 
stockpiles in the region, including:  250 rolls of plastic 
sheeting (sufficient for approximately 2,500 families), 5,000 
blankets, and 5,000 water containers. 
-- An ongoing military airlift of other relief supplies. 
-- U.S.-funded Ministry of Interior Airwing is providing 
helicopters for aerial relief support. 
-- Two C-130 aircraft in-bound to Islamabad tonight (October 
9) with humanitarian relief supplies. 
 
Other Donors 
------------ 
 
7.  (u) Most major donors have also made contributions, and 
have indicated they anticipate providing significantly more 
as more detailed information becomes available.  Nine 
countries are sending search and rescue teams (China, Korea, 
Russia, Turkey, Germany, the United Kingdom, France, Japan 
and the United Arab Emirates).  NGOs working in country, 
including Save the Children, Mercy Corps and Oxfam, have 
established an NGO secretariat in Islamabad to coordinate 
delivery. 
 
Next Steps 
---------- 
 
8.  (u) Musharraf toured the north today.  His Military 
Secretary and ISI Director General Kiyani both contacted me 
 
SIPDIS 
subsequently to convey Musharraf's urgent request for 
helicopter lift, tents, blankets and medicine. Both were very 
grateful for CFC-A's quick action to make available eight 
aircraft.  It is clear, however, that the magnitude of the 
task will require more assets, and for a prolonged period of 
time. 
 
CROCKER