US embassy cable - 05BAGHDAD4146

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 BAGHDAD 004146 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/05/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, MOPS, ECON, PREL, IZ, Security, Reconstruction 
SUBJECT: IRAQI MCNS DISCUSSES REFERENDUM SECURITY, OTHER 
ISSUES 
 
REF: A. BAGHDAD 4110 
     B. BAGHDAD 4109 
     C. AMMAN 7997 
     D. RIYADH 7047 
     E. ABU DHABI 4200 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad for reasons 1.4 (a), (b), (d 
). 
 
1. (S//REL GBR AUS)  SUMMARY:  The Iraqi Ministerial 
Committee on National Security (MCNS) met on October 4, 2005 
to discuss the conditions for the transfer of security 
responsibilities, to review security plans for the October 15 
referendum, and to discuss other issues.  The Committee's 
discussion regarding the transfer of security 
responsibilities is the subject of septel.  On referendum 
security, the Ministry of Interior's (MOI) referendum 
security plan was presented and discussed.  In addition, 
Ambassador Khalilzad provided a readout of his trip to Saudi 
Arabia, Jordan, and the UAE. Coalition concerns about the 
lack of Iraqi action on Tal Afar reconstruction and 
reconciliation plans were flagged yet again, as were 
coalition concerns about recent confrontations at Baghdad 
International Airport (BIAP) between Ministry of 
Transportation security forces and Global Security 
contractors.  The Prime Minister also mentioned his desire to 
reopen a bridge in Musayyia closed to civilian traffic. 
Lastly, the Prime Minister noted that security in Latifiya is 
becoming a concern and asked if MNF-I can examine the 
situation and take action. 
 
2. (S//REL GBR AUS)  The MCNS met at the home of Prime 
Minister Jaafari the night of October 4, 2005.  Present were 
the Prime Minister, Minister of Defense Saadoun al-Dulime, 
Minister of Interior Bayan Jabr, National Security Advisor 
Mowaffak al-Rubaie, Presidential Spokesman Laith Kubba, 
Ambassador Khalilzad, MNF-I Commanding General Casey, British 
Charge d'Affaires Tim Torlot, and MNF-I 
Deputy Commanding General Brims. A translator and note-takers 
also were in attendance. Minister of State for National 
Security Affairs Karem al-Anzi was absent. 
 
------------------- 
REFERENDUM SECURITY 
------------------- 
 
3. (S//REL GBR AUS)  MOI General Ayden Khidir briefed the 
Committee on security plans for the October 15 referendum. 
He stressed that all the involved ministries had participated 
in formulating the plan, which defines the roles of all 
parties and provides security for ballots and polling places 
throughout the process.  The security plan for polling sites 
consists of three rings. 
 
--  The inner ring will be manned by Iraqi police who will be 
positioned at each polling site. 
 
--  The second ring will consist of Iraqi Army forces, who 
will be positioned further out and will control access to the 
polling sites.  Their exact positioning will depend on local 
conditions. 
 
--  The third and outer most ring will consist of MNF quick 
reaction forces who will be out of sight but close enough to 
respond if needed. 
 
All forces involved will take up their positions on October 
13 and will remain until the polling sites are closed and the 
ballot boxes removed.  All of the MOI's departments and 
forces will be mobilized for this effort.  The plan has been 
coordinated with the Ministries of Transport, Commerce, 
Trade, and Health; and its execution will involve elements of 
these ministries. 
 
4.  (S//REL GBR AUS)  The most important part of the plan, 
according to General Ayden, is the set of emergency measures 
that will be enacted.  They are the following: 
 
--  HOLIDAY: A national holiday will be declared from 
Thursday, October 13 through Sunday, October 16 -- this will 
help control and minimize the movement of people. 
 
--  CURFEW: A national curfew will be imposed from October 13 
until October 17 prohibiting movement between the hours of 
2200 and 0700. 
 
--  POLLING HOURS: The polls will be open on October 15 at 
0700 and will close at 1700. 
 
--  WEAPONS BAN: No weapons will be permitted except those of 
authorized security personnel between October 13 and October 
16. 
 
--  BORDERS CLOSED: All national borders and airports will be 
closed from the morning of October 14 until 0800 on October 
16. 
 
--  PROVINCES CLOSED: All provincial borders will be sealed 
between 1800 on October 14 until 0600 on October 16 for 
security and political reasons (i.e., to prevent the 
transport of car bombs and groups from disrupting the vote or 
intimidating voters or election workers). 
 
--  TRAFFIC BAN: All vehicular traffic will be prohibited on 
October 15, except for vehicles bearing specially prepared 
placards issued by the MOI. 
 
Some of these procedures will not be made public until the 
very last moment in order to prevent tipping off the 
insurgents as to the government's plans.  It was agreed that 
some of the measures should be announced earlier than others 
to allow the public time to plan how to get to their polling 
sites on referendum day. 
 
5.  (S//REL GBR AUS)  Other issues include: 
 
-- PRESS COVERAGE:  Regularly accredited journalists will be 
allowed to visit any polling site.  Those who wish to carry 
cameras or other equipment will be allowed to visit 50 
designated polling sites but will have to possess a specially 
issued pass distributed by the MOI.  Six polling sites will 
be set up with live satellite feeds to permit day-long 
coverage (two sites in each Baghdad, Kirkuk, and Basrah). 
 
--  ANBAR PROVINCE:  There is a question of whether tribesmen 
in Anbar will be allowed to provide security at polling 
places.  It seems the best solution is to post only a small 
number at each site and then only under the direct 
supervision of Iraqi security forces.  The tribes would then 
get to play a role but be under control (and thus less likely 
to cause problems).  Minister of Defense Dulime, who has 
strong ties to Anbar Province, said he recently had met with 
tribal leaders who had told him the tribes will vote in large 
numbers, even in areas where military operations are in 
progress. 
 
--  KIRKUK: In Kirkuk the number of registered voters doesn't 
add up.  In some areas there are many more registered voters 
that residents.  In other areas, the problem is the opposite: 
only a very few number of registered voters in a substantial 
population. (Reftel A.)  During the last election, large 
population movements created a problem in this area, and this 
could become a problem again. 
 
--  ISF and DETAINEE VOTING:  Another issue is whether Iraqi 
Security Forces (ISF) members and detainees will be allowed 
to vote.  In the case of ISF, soldiers manning polling sites 
will be allowed to vote, and their ballots will be counted 
with those of their home province.  ISF in barracks cannot 
vote because it is illegal for polling sites to be located on 
military bases.  Plans are being made to permit detainees to 
vote.  MNF can facilitate voting by detainees in their 
custody, but if they vote, so too must detainees in MOI, MOD, 
and Ministry of Justice custody.  MNF will follow 
whatever instructions the Iraqis give concerning whether MNF 
detainees will be permitted to vote. 
 
-- FUNDING:  So far, all preparation has been done without a 
budget.  The Prime Minister said that foreign donors need to 
be pressed to fulfill their obligations. 
 
6.  (S//REL GBR AUS)  The Ambassador raised concerns about 
the potential intimidation of Shia and Kurdish voters by 
Sunni extremists who will try to minimize the number of "yes" 
votes cast, particularly in Diyala and Salah ad Din 
provinces.  This was the reason cited by Shia leaders for the 
TNA,s attempt to alter the rules on how referendum votes 
will be counted. (Reftel B.)  Minister of Interior Jabr said 
that these concerns are real and that plans should be made to 
deploy additional security forces to sensitive areas in order 
to deter and prevent voter intimidation acts. 
 
-------------------------- 
AMBASSADOR'S REGIONAL TRIP 
-------------------------- 
 
7.  (S//REL GBR AUS)  The Ambassador provided a readout of 
his recent trip to Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and the UAE. 
(Reftels C, D, E.)  He said the trip was successful in that 
he had been well received in all the capitals he visited.  He 
urged each of the governments to engage Iraq on a bilateral 
basis at all levels, encouraged them to take steps to control 
the messages their media outlets are disseminating about 
Iraq, and asked them to seriously consider what can be done 
to be of immediate economic assistance to Iraq (such as 
contributing to reconstruction efforts or publicly announcing 
debt forgiveness measures).  The Ambassador urged the Iraqis 
to participate in bilateral visits and to give highest 
priority to sending the Minister of Finance to other states 
to broach debt issues.  The Ambassador stressed it is 
important for visits to take place to clear up misperceptions 
about what is happening inside Iraq.  Jabr reported that he 
has already seen evidence that the Ambassador's trip is 
having positive effects.  He visited Jordan after the 
Ambassador and was told by the King that he plans to visit 
Baghdad and urge the Iraqi Sunni Arabs living in Jordan to 
participate in the political process. 
 
--------------- 
TAL AFAR ISSUES 
--------------- 
 
8.  (S//REL GBR AUS)  The Ambassador, GEN Casey, and LtGen 
Brims all stressed again the need for the Iraqi government to 
keep its commitments to the people of Tal Afar by commencing 
to pay compensation and starting work on reconstruction 
projects.  The combat operations ended three weeks ago, and 
still the Iraqis have not spent a dollar in Tal Afar.  Since 
the Iraqis have a good plan and have said that $50 million 
has been allocated, why is there a delay?  After some 
uncomfortable back and forth among themselves, the Iraqi 
participants said the Minister of Finance is trying to "find 
the right mechanism" to make the funds available.  GEN Casey 
pointed out that U.S. forces have paid $850,000 in 
compensation and have committed over $10 million to 
reconstruction projects, many of which have already begun. 
The Ambassador stressed that continued Iraqi foot-dragging on 
this matter sets a bad example for the people and is not 
acceptable. 
 
---------------- 
AIRPORT SECURITY 
---------------- 
 
9.  (S//REL GBR AUS)  The Ambassador raised the latest 
security problem at the Baghdad International Airport.  The 
private security firm Global is still responsible for 
security at the airport, but recently 25 trucks carrying over 
100 Ministry of Transport security officers attempted to 
enter the airport without advance notice.  He warned that 
this type of action easily could lead to a misunderstanding 
that could result in violence.  This cannot be tolerated.  He 
asked that the Prime Minister and Minister of Interior work 
with the Minister of Transport to make sure this doesn't 
happen again. 
 
-------------- 
IRAQI CONCERNS 
-------------- 
 
10. (S//REL GBR AUS) Jaafari raised two concerns regarding 
security.  He reported that security in Latifiya is 
deteriorating and asked that MNF examine this and respond 
accordingly.  He also requested that the "new" bridge at 
Musayyia be opened to civilian traffic.  Since civilians are 
restricted to the older bridge, there is great fear in the 
area that another bridge tragedy like the one that took place 
in Baghdad will occur.  GEN Casey said he would look into the 
matter. 
 
Khalilzad 
Khalilzad