US embassy cable - 02ANKARA7974

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 007974 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SE 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/06/2007 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, EU, TU, EU Accession 
SUBJECT: EURODIPLOMATS IN ANKARA SAY TURKEY'S EU CANDIDACY 
GAINING MOMENTUM 
 
 
REF: A)ANKARA 7766 B)ANKARA 7352 C)ANKARA 6116 
 
 
Classified by DCM Robert Deutsch; reasons 1.5 b and d. 
 
 
1. (C) Summary: EU-member-state diplomats in Ankara say the 
EU is headed toward offering Turkey a conditional date for 
accession talks, possibly in January 2004.  Our contacts say 
Germany holds the key; local German diplomats agree Berlin 
feels under pressure not to block Turkey's candidacy.  UK and 
Danish diplomats say their countries strongly back Turkey. 
The diplomats agree their governments are willing to work 
with the newly elected AK Party government, though some are 
wary of AK's perceived Islamist roots.  End Summary. 
 
 
----------------------------------- 
TURKEY'S CANDIDACY GAINING MOMENTUM 
----------------------------------- 
 
 
2. (C) Poloff discussed the state of Turkey's EU candidacy 
and the impact of the landslide victory of the 
Islam-influenced AK Party in the November 3 national 
elections (Reftel A) with German, Danish and British 
diplomats November 4 and 5.  The Eurodiplomats agreed 
Turkey's candidacy has gained momentum since the October 9 
release of EU Commission reports that did not recommend 
offering Turkey a date for accession talks (Reftel B).  They 
said a strong consensus is emerging in favor of offering 
Turkey a date to start accession talks, on the condition that 
the GOT implements further reforms.  According to our 
contacts, the details will not be hammered out until shortly 
before the December 12-13 EU Summit in Copenhagen, but one 
scenario being widely discussed in EU circles would establish 
the following steps: Turkey's candidacy will be reviewed 
again at the December 2003 EU Summit; if Turkey at that time 
meets political criteria for membership, accession talks will 
begin in January 2004.  A Danish diplomat said this was the 
best-case scenario, possible if there is a breakthrough on 
Cyprus and a strong commitment by the new Turkish government 
to the EU membership process before the December Summit.  A 
weaker version of the EU offer would state that Turkey will 
start accession talks at an unspecified date in 2004. 
 
 
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GOT WANTS 2003 DATE 
------------------- 
 
 
3. (C) GOT officials accept privately that the EU will attach 
conditions to any date offered.  Still, they insist the EU 
must mention a specific date, preferably in 2003, before 10 
new states become members in 2004.  Inan Ozyildiz, foreign 
affairs advisor to the President, told Poloff the Turkish 
public will not understand if countries such as Malta and 
Lithuania, not to mention Cyprus, join the EU before Turkey 
has even begun accession talks.  He said Turks are very 
proud, and may turn their back on the EU if they feel 
slighted.  Also, he said, the new members might try to block 
Turkey's accession once they attain EU voting rights.  The 
Ankara-based Eurodiplomats said they are aware of Turkish 
sensitivities, but the EU members also have to worry about 
their own constituencies.  By offering to start talks in 
January 2004, the EU would be setting a date far enough in 
the future to ease member-state anxieties about Turkey, but 
early enough to show the Turks they are being treated fairly. 
 
 
----------------------- 
BERLIN FEELING THE HEAT 
----------------------- 
 
 
4. (C) According to our contacts, Germany holds the key to 
the December Summit.  They say  other major EU states are 
either supportive of Turkey's candidacy or are staying on the 
sidelines.  The UK appears to be Turkey's strongest backer -- 
a British diplomat told Poloff the UK will do everything it 
can to see that the EU offers Turkey a forward-leaning 
conditional date.  Term president Denmark and Italy are 
apparently also very supportive.  France is a mystery -- both 
the GOT and diplomats from other EU states have told Emboffs 
they don't know where Paris stands.  Most of the smaller 
states are indifferent, and Greece is no longer putting up 
opposition.  Two German diplomats told Poloff Berlin does not 
want to be seen as the obstacle in Turkey's path.  "If Turkey 
does not get in, they will blame us," one of them said.  They 
lamented the fact that Germany, which would be most affected 
by Turkish membership, is being pressured by other countries 
with a much smaller stake in the matter.  They said they were 
caught off guard when German FM Fischer recently made public 
statements strongly supporting Turkey's candidacy.  The 
German Embassy is usually more pro-Turkey than Berlin, and 
now the positions are reversed. 
 
 
5. (C) A Danish diplomat told Poloff his government has 
noticed a sudden change in Germany's approach.  At the 
October 21-22 EU Foreign Ministers meeting, both Fischer and 
UK FS Straw urged participants to think about Turkey as a 
strategic ally in the struggle against terrorism.  The EU, 
they said, needed to support Turkey to show that Islam could 
co-exist with democracy and prosperity.  The Danish diplomat 
noted that in the past the UK had been alone in making this 
U.S.-style argument in EU meetings.  "They (the Germans) are 
starting to talk like you guys," he said. 
 
 
------------------------------------ 
SIGNIFICANCE OF GOT REFORMS SINKS IN 
------------------------------------ 
 
 
6. (C) The Eurodiplomats said EU support for Turkey is 
increasing primarily because the significance of the GOT's 
recent reforms has begun to sink in.  In particular, they 
said, EU states were surprised by the extent of the GOT's 
August reform package (Reftel C), which dealt with the most 
sensitive issues -- such as the death penalty and Kurdish 
language rights -- that the GOT had avoided in earlier reform 
efforts.  Before August, EU-member governments had assumed 
Turkey would be so far from meeting membership criteria that 
its candidacy would not have to be seriously addressed at the 
December Summit.  Now, they understand the GOT has launched a 
serious reform effort that the EU must help keep on track. 
 
 
-------------------------- 
EU WILLING TO WORK WITH AK 
-------------------------- 
 
 
7. (C) It is not yet clear how the electoral triumph of the 
Islam-influenced AK party will affect this process.  The 
Eurodiplomats said their governments were determined to give 
AK the benefit of the doubt, given the party's pro-EU stance 
during the campaign.  Still, there are anxieties below the 
surface in some EU capitals about AK's perceived Islamist 
roots, according to our contacts.  The German diplomats said 
AK's rise to power is "not a boost" to Turkey's candidacy, as 
it will heighten fears among the German public about taking 
in a large, Muslim country as an EU member. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
PEARSON