US embassy cable - 05WARSAW3575

UNCLAS WARSAW 003575 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PL, Polish Elections 
SUBJECT: PRESIDENTIAL PRE-ELECTION SNAPSHOT 
 
REF: WARSAW 3557 AND PREVIOUS 
 
1.  Summary:  Civic Platform's (PO's) Donald Tusk remains in 
the lead for the October 9 first round of the Polish 
presidential race, with today's final pre-election polls 
showing his edge over Law and Justice (PiS) challenger, Lech 
Kaczynski varying from just one to eight points.  Other 
candidates fall well back in the pack.  With Tusk's lead 
narrowing and his support shy of the 50-percent mark, the 
question remains whether the PO candidate will prevail in the 
decisive second-round October 23.  Deferring to presidential 
politics, PiS candidate for prime minister, Kazimierz 
Marcinkiewicz, will present his government's program on 
October 10, and announce his cabinet formally on October 24. 
End Summary. 
 
2.  PO standard bearer, Donald Tusk, is holding on to his 
lead over PiS rival Lech Kaczynski, although one poll shows 
that lead down to one slender point.  Two other polls show 
Tusk holding a six and eight-point lead over Kaczynski, with 
Samoobrona's Andrzej Lepper following distantly with twelve 
points and SdPL's Marek Borowski with eleven points. 
Attention is centered on the second-round run-off between PO 
and PiS, and who will gain the support of third party voters. 
 While the turnout is expected to exceed that of September 25 
parliamentary election (just 40 percent), it may fall short 
of percentages in previous presidential elections. 
 
3.  The Democratic Party's Henryka Bochniarz, told reporters 
she would urge her supporters to vote for Tusk in the second 
round.  Those supporting minor parties in the first round may 
well be the difference in determining whomever prevails on 
October 23.  Left-of-center voters may well gravitate towards 
Tusk, whereas Self Defense voters may find Lech Kaczynski's 
nationalism more appealing.  Polls suggest that the second 
round will be close, and two weeks has proved to be a long 
time in Polish political life.  Voter fatigue may be a 
further issue, with Poles growing tired of a nearly endless 
stream of newspaper articles on the candidates, their wives, 
and even would-be presidential cats. 
 
4.  Tusk and Kaczynski squared off in a televised debate on 
October 6 that most viewers called a draw.  Both share a 
common vision of the broad aspects of Polish foreign policy, 
but differed in emphasis in some notable ways.  On Russia, 
Tusk emphasized the need to work closely with Germany and 
within EU channels to facilitate Russia's integration with 
the West.  Kaczynski, however, said he would coordinate 
closely with Washington on Russian policy.  On domestic 
policies, Tusk earlier on October 6 criticized PiS proposals 
on health care that would increase government subsidies in 
this sector. 
 
5.  PiS candidate for prime minister, Kazimierz 
Marcinkiewicz, announced he will present the broad outlines 
of the new government's program on October 10, and his 
cabinet selections on October 24, the day after the second 
round of the presidential election.  While speculations about 
ministers continues, final decisions will depend on the 
outcome of the presidential race. 
Ashe