US embassy cable - 05NEWDELHI7874

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 007874 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL, ENRG, IN, PK, INDO-PAK 
SUBJECT: BAGLIHAR DAM: NEUTRAL EXPERT VISITS SITE, WILL 
ISSUE FULL REPORT 
 
REF: A. NEW DELHI 3745 
     B. NEW DELHI 3213 
 
1.  (U) Summary: World Bank-appointed Neutral Expert Dr. 
Raymond Lafitte today completed his tour and consultations on 
the controversial Baglihar Dam; he gave the GOI a preliminary 
read-out and will file a comprehensive report by October 21. 
The process, under the auspices of the World Bank-brokered 
1960 Indus Water Treaty (IWT), will continue at least until 
mid-January.  New Delhi's message continues to be that (1) 
"We are in the right," and (2) "We will abide by whatever 
decision is reached under the process spelled out under the 
IWT."  This issue remains an irritant in Indo-Pak relations, 
but is currently only a small blip on New Delhi's radar 
because the institutions are working as expected to arbitrate 
the dispute.  End Summary. 
 
Site Visit Complete 
------------------- 
 
2.  (U) According to press reports, Lafitte and his two 
colleagues spent three days at the Baglihar Dam site on the 
Chenab River in Chanderkote (Doda District), including the 
area behind the dam that would be flooded after the dam 
begins operations.  He and his team were accompanied by six 
Pakistani and four Indian officials.  In addition to 
inspecting the site itself and interviewing engineers working 
on the project, the delegations viewed a 1:60 scale "running 
model" of the dam constructed by the Irrigation Research 
Institute.  The 200-meter large model is powered by the Ganga 
Canal and reportedly allows observers to note the water's 
behavior as it runs through the sluices, intake points, 
channels, and reservoirs.  New Delhi's argument is that the 
five sluice gates and three chute spillways in the design 
specification are necessary to flush out silt, while 
Islamabad's position is that the spillways would allow India 
to control the flow of water, including withholding or 
causing a flood.  (NOTE: The Salal Dam, which is downriver 
from the Baglihar site, suffers from significant silt 
accumulation.  End Note.) 
 
Next Steps 
---------- 
 
3.  (U) With the site visit complete, Lafitte will today 
(Friday) in Delhi brief GOI and GOP officials on his initial 
assessment.  He will then prepare a comprehensive report 
which he will submit to the World Bank by October 21.  The 
report will be a key element in a hearing on the Baglihar 
project set to begin in mid-January.  A bilateral agreement 
between the two sides would pre-empt the process moving 
forward, but the GOI appears willing to let the process play 
itself out.  When asked by reporters how the process would 
impact Indo-Pak relations, Lafitte deftly sidestepped the 
issue by responding "I am not a politician." 
 
GOI Still Convinced They're Right 
--------------------------------- 
 
4.  (U) The GOI remains convinced they will win their case 
before the Neutral Expert (Reftels).  Most recently, Water 
Minister Priya Ranjan Dasmunsi told reporters this week that 
she was confident the process was heading in the right 
direction for India.  However, we continue to receive 
assurances from the MEA that the GOI will abide by whatever 
result emerges from the IWT process. 
 
Comment: The Process is Working 
------------------------------- 
 
5.  (U) Baglihar is a blip on the Indian energy radar so far. 
 The 450 MegaWatt hydro project would add only 1.5% India,s 
present total of 31,745 MW of hydro and less than 0.5% to 
total 122,275 MW of power generation capacity, while the GOI 
is also pushing expansion of nuclear, gas-fired, and 
coal-fired power production.  The dam's place in J&K politics 
has been sidelined by the Delhi-Srinagar dialogue; its 
position in Indo-Pak affairs is crowded by the Composite 
Dialogue, the Joint Commission to expand economic ties, and 
VIP and people-to-people exchanges.  The Indians believe 
firmly they are in the right, and are playing by the rules in 
a transparent arbitration process because they have faith the 
institution will confirm their assertions.  Embassy will 
follow up with GOI interlocutors the week of October 11 to 
seek their readout of the Lafitte visit. 
6.   (U) Visit New Delhi's Classified Website: 
(http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/sa/newdelhi/) 
Mulford