US embassy cable - 05DUSHANBE1642

C O N F I D E N T I A L  DUSHANBE 001642 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
NOFORN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL:  10/7/2015 
TAGS: MCAP, TI 
SUBJECT: IIR 6 947 0006 06/NATIONAL GUARD DEPLOYMENT LIMITATION (U) 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: Jonathan Edwards, DATT, USDAO Dushanbe, DIA. 
REASON: 1.4 (a), (b) 
 
CONFIDENTIAL NO FOREIGN 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SERIAL:  (U) IIR 6 947 0006 06. 
 
COUNTRIES:  (U) TAJIKISTAN (TI), RUSSIA (RU). 
 
IPSP:  (U) IFC2500, IFC1913, IFC2510 
 
SUBJECT: IIR 6 947 0006 06/NATIONAL GUARD DEPLOYMENT LIMITATION 
(U) 
 
WARNING:  (U) THIS IS AN INFORMATION REPORT, NOT FINALLY 
EVALUATED INTELLIGENCE.  REPORT CLASSIFIED CONFIDENTIAL NO 
FOREIGN 
 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
                DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
DOI:  (U) 20051006 
 
REQS: (U) UTCX206000504, DHCD111044, DHCD045058 
 
SOURCE:  (C) //6 947 0023 05// HOST NATION FIELD GRADE MILITARY 
OFFICER WITH DIRECT AND INDIRECT ACCESS TO THE INFORMATION. 
USDAO HAS AN ESTABLISHED RELATIONSHIP WITH SOURCE. CONTEXT 
STATEMENT - RO AND SOURCE MEET ON A REGULAR LIAISON BASIS AS A 
RESULT OF RO'S AND SOURCE'S OFFICIAL DUTIES. SOURCE APPEARS TO 
BE A STRONG SUPPORTER OF INCREASED MILITARY RELATIONS BETWEEN 
UNITED STATES AND TAJIKISTAN. SOURCE IS AWARE THAT INFORMATION 
WILL REACH U.S. INTELLIGENCE CHANNELS AND COMMENTS MAY BE MEANT 
TO INFLUENCE AS MUCH AS TO INFORM. 
 
SUMMARY:  (C//REL TO USA, GBR AND AUS) THE NATIONAL GUARD IS NOT 
CAPABLE OF DEPLOYING TO AREAS IN SOUTHEASTERN TAJIKISTAN.  THE 
NATIONAL GUARD ACKNOWLEDGES THERE IS A PERSISTENT THREAT IN THE 
REGION. 
 
TEXT: 1.  (C//REL TO USA, GBR AND AUS) ON 6 OCTOBER 2005 RO MET 
WITH SOURCE.  RO ASKED SOURCE IF THE NATIONAL GUARD HAD ANY 
PLANS OF CREATING A PRESENCE IN THE GORNO-BADAKHSHAN REGION 
(GBAO), GIVEN THE REGION'S PROXIMITY TO AFGHANISTAN, LIMITED 
GOVERNMENT CONTROL IN THE PAST AND THE POTENTIAL FOR EXTREMIST 
PRESENCE.  RO NOTED THAT THE MINISTRY OF DEFENSE AND BORDER 
GUARDS ARE PRESENT IN KHOROG, BUT RO WAS UNSURE OF TAJIKISTAN'S 
PRESENT COUNTER-TERRORISM CAPABILITY THERE. SOURCE RESPONDED 
THAT THE NATIONAL GUARD COULD NOT AFFORD TO DEPLOY UNITS SO FAR 
FROM DUSHANBE.  SOURCE SAID THAT HE WAS AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL 
THREAT IN THE REGION, BUT HE HIMSELF HAD NEVER BEEN THERE. 
 
2.  (C//REL TO USA, GBR AND AUS) SOURCE SAID THAT THE NATIONAL 
GUARD CONTINUED TO DEVELOP ITS COUNTER-TERRORISM CAPABILITY AND 
WAS AT THIS TIME THE GOVERNMENT'S SECOND RESPONSE TO TERRORIST 
THREATS, AFTER THE MINISTRY OF SECURITY. 
 
COMMENTS: 1. (C//REL TO USA, GBR AND AUS) FIELD COMMENT:  THE 
NATIONAL GUARD ACKNOWLEDGING IT LACKS THE CAPABILITY TO DEPLOY 
TO THE GBAO REGION WAS A SURPRISE TO RO.  SOURCE HAD PREVIOUSLY 
TOLD RO THAT THE NATIONAL GUARD PLANNED TO BASE A BATTALION 
SOUTHEAST OF DUSHANBE.  DURING RO'S RECENT TRIP TO GBAO, RO DID 
NOT SEE ANY MILITARY PRESENCE DEDICATED OR TRAINED IN DETERING 
EXTREMIST/TERRORIST THREATS IN THE REGION.  PREVIOUS POST 
REPORTING INDICATES THEIR APPEARS TO BE GOVERNMENT 
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT THAT AN EXTREMIST PRESENCE EXISTS IN THE REGION, 
YET AT THIS TIME NEITHER THE MINISTRY OF DEFENSE OR THE NATIONAL 
 
GUARD APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING A CAPABILITY TO CONFRONT POTENTIAL 
THREATS.  IN ADDITION, THE TAJIKS PERSISTENT PROBLEMS WITH 
MAINTAINING AND OPERATING ITS ROTARY WING FLEET, MAKES IT 
UNLIKELY THE TAJIKS RETAIN A SUFFICIENT CAPABILITY TO RAPIDLY 
DEPLOY UNITS FROM DUSHANBE TO THE GBAO REGION. 
 
3.  (U) SOURCES ARE AVAILABLE FOR FURTHER CONTACT. 
 
4.  (U) DIRECT ANY QUESTIONS CONCERNING THIS IIR TO DIA/DHO-2 AT 
STU III (202) 231-7299, OR DSN 428-7299. 
 
COLL: (U) AB. 
INSTR:  (U) U.S.  NO. 
PREP:  (U) 6-04708. 
ENCL: (U) NONE. 
ACQ:  (U)  DUSHANBE, TAJIKISTAN (20051006) 
DISSEM:  (U)  FIELD:  EMBASSY AT DUSHANBE. 
WARNING:  (U) REPORT CLASSIFIED CONFIDENTIAL NO FOREIGN 
DRVD FM: DHS HUMINT SCG OCT 04 
DECL ON:  20151006 
 
HOAGLAND 
 
 
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