Disclaimer: This site has been first put up 15 years ago. Since then I would probably do a couple things differently, but because I've noticed this site had been linked from news outlets, PhD theses and peer rewieved papers and because I really hate the concept of "digital dark age" I've decided to put it back up. There's no chance it can produce any harm now.
| Identifier: | 05MINSK1231 |
|---|---|
| Wikileaks: | View 05MINSK1231 at Wikileaks.org |
| Origin: | Embassy Minsk |
| Created: | 2005-10-07 10:46:00 |
| Classification: | UNCLASSIFIED |
| Tags: | PGOV PINR PREL BO |
| Redacted: | This cable was not redacted by Wikileaks. |
VZCZCXYZ0015 RR RUEHWEB DE RUEHSK #1231/01 2801046 ZNR UUUUU ZZH R 071046Z OCT 05 FM AMEMBASSY MINSK TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3122 INFO RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW 3164 RUEHKV/AMEMBASSY KIEV 2942 RUEHVL/AMEMBASSY VILNIUS 3386 RUEHWR/AMEMBASSY WARSAW 3050 RUEHRA/AMEMBASSY RIGA 1430 RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE 0690 RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
UNCLAS MINSK 001231
SIPDIS
DEPT ALSO FOR INR
KIEV ALSO FOR USAID
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, PREL, BO
SUBJECT: New IISEPS Poll: Lukashenko Will Win,
But People Want a Change
Refs: A) Minsk 1205, B) Minsk 1192
1. Summary: Head of the IISEPS polling service delivered
his recent survey results to Ambassador on September 30.
Similar to other polls, IISEPS confirmed that Lukashenko
enjoys a large lead over his opposition and is trusted by
the majority. However, many of the respondents indicated it
was time for a new face as president, although they were not
ready to protest in the street. Respondents distrust the
opposition, but at the same time would like to know more
about the opposition leaders, policies, and activities. Few
know of the Congress of Democratic Forces which took place
October 1-2 (Ref A) and more knew of Shushkevich and Lebedko
than the newly elected 10+ candidate Aleksandr Milinkevich.
Most of those polled agreed that Belarusians are afraid to
express their political views and only one third believes
the social-economic situation will improve in the next few
years. Animosity towards the U.S. is at a high, but
attitudes towards Americans as a people remain friendly.
Most respondents have little access to foreign or
independent sources of information and many indicate they
would listen to broadcasts about Belarus from surrounding
countries. End Summary.
2. On September 30, head of the IISEPS polling service Oleg
Manaev gave Ambassador the results of his September survey.
IISEPS polled 1504 people, asking questions about the
presidential elections, quality of life, and other social
issues. Below are the results.
The People's Trust
-----------------------
3. Manaev noted how 54 percent of respondents trusted
Lukashenko whereas 32.4 percent did not and 13.5 percent did
not comment. Similar to NOVAK's recent polling (Ref B),
Belarusians trust the Orthodox Church and army more so than
the president. The opposition remains the most distrusted:
Trust Distrust No Answer
----- -------- ---------
Government Press 55.3(%) 33.3 11.4
Human Rights Groups 35.3 31.1 33.5
International Groups 38.7 36.2 25.1
(i.e. UN, OSCE, EU)
Government of Belarus 41.3 42.8 15.9
Independent Press 38.5 43.2 18.3
Opposition 15.2 60.0 24.8
The President's Inevitable Victory
----------------------------------
4. If elections were held tomorrow, 47.3 percent of the
respondents would vote for Lukashenko. Anatoly Lebedko,
Stanislav Shushkevich, and Vladimir Frolov were distant
seconds with 3.5, 2.9, and 2.5 percent respectively.
Aleksandr Milinkevich, the opposition's single candidate,
only received 1.4 percent. Even with the massive electoral
fraud that took place during the October 2004 referendum
vote, IISEPS revealed that 46.8 percent of respondents did
vote to allow Lukashenko a third term. Manaev explained
that this figure has been consistent in all IISEPS polling.
According to respondents, the presidential candidate who
continues on Belarus' current path, supports integration
with Russia, and rules with a "heavy hand" would win the
next election.
5. Even though seventy-two percent of respondents do not
doubt Lukashenko will win the 2006 election, many do not
support Lukashenko and wish to see a new person in office.
[Comment: Note the large percent of respondents who
refrained from answering.]
"In your opinion, has Lukashenko done such a good job
fulfilling his obligations as a president that he should be
elected again, or do you believe it is time to give someone
else a chance to fulfill presidential obligations?"
Answer %
------ ----
Give Someone Else a Chance 44.8
Elect Lukashenko Again 44.3
No Answer 10.9
"Not long ago in an interview on Russian television,
Lukashenko said, "I am convinced that 99 percent of the
Belarusian people consider their president uncorrupt and
honest." Do you agree with this?
Answer %
------ ----
Yes 43.9
No 41.2
No Answer 14.9
"Not long ago when speaking about the presidential election,
Lukashenko said, "Excuse me for my immodesty, but I think
that people support me. Why choose someone who is unknown?
Why have an unnecessary change? - that is what every person
thinks." Do you agree with this?"
Answer %
------ ----
Yes 50.2
No 40.6
No Answer 9.2
"In your opinion, will the 2006 presidential election be
free and fair?"
Answer %
------ ----
Yes 44.5
No 39.1
No Answer 16.4
"Who or what could hinder Lukashenko from winning the
presidential elections?" (more than one answer)
Answer %
------ ----
No one/Nothing 34.6
Worsening Economic Situation 20.5
The West 18.5
Belarusians wish for a democratic
change 16.5
The opposition's single candidate 7.6
Russia 3.4
Budding Interest in the Opposition?
-----------------------------------
6. IISEPS survey indicated that 74.7 percent of respondents
had not heard of the opposition's Congress of Democratic
Forces and 90.7 percent did not know anyone who participated
in the nominating of candidates. However, many knew or had
heard of several opposition leaders:
"Which of the politicians have you heard of?" (more than
one answer)
Answer %
------ ----
S. Shushkevich 50.8
A. Lebedko 30.5
V. Frolov 24.2
S. Kalyakin 16.4
A. Voitovich 14.0
A. Kozulin 13.3
A. Klimov 11.2
A. Milinkevich 10.2
7. When asked whether they believe in the Congress'
decisions and would support the single candidate, 24 percent
replied "no" and 10.3 percent replied "yes." However, 53.3
percent answered that they would "look at the situation" and
an addition 12.4 percent did not answer. If the respondents
had participated in the Congress, 8.7 percent would have
voted for Shushkevich, 5.9 percent for Lebedko, 4.4 percent
for Frolov, and two percent for Milinkevich. Sixty percent
did not answer. IISEPS discovered that 57.6 percent of
respondents believe that there should be an opposition to
the authorities in Belarus and 50 percent would like to know
more about the opposition, political parties, leaders,
platforms, etc. Thirty-five percent of those polled did not
support GOB actions to prevent gatherings or the Congress
from taking place in Belarus while only 12 percent agreed
with the GOB.
No Will to Make a Change
------------------------
8. IISEPS asked the respondents if Belarusians were ready to
express their political views openly. Whereas 20 percent
believe Belarusians are able to express their political
opinions without fear, 72.8 percent believe that people are
too afraid to do so:
Answer %
------ ----
No one is afraid to express
his/her opinion 20.6
Few people are afraid 22.2
Many people are afraid 37.1
Everyone is afraid 13.5
No answer 6.6
9. Few respondents (14.5 percent) believe that Lukashenko
could be removed from power through a "color revolution"
similar to those in Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzia and 82.4
percent are not ready to take part in any such revolution.
Belarus on Right Path, But No Improvements To Date
--------------------------------------------- -----
10. The majority of respondents (53.4 percent) believe
Belarus is developing and is on the right path while 30.2
percent disagree and 16.4 percent did not answer. However,
they did admit that they were facing socio-economic problems
in their daily lives.
"How has your material situation changed in the last three
months?"
Answer %
------ ----
Has improved 17.5
Has not changed 61.4
Has worsened 19.8
No answer 1.3
[Note: Manaev said the percentage of those who believe their
situation has worsened has increased since the last poll.]
"What are the most serious problems you have faced in 2005?"
(more than one answer)
Answer %
------ ----
Material problems
(price rises, tariffs, etc) 50.3
Health problems 15.2
Unemployment 11.9
Social-domestic problems 9.5
Personal and family problems 9.3
Housing problems 8.5
Problems with health services 7.2
Problems with education 6.3
Problems with laws and order 5.8
Problems with human rights 3.3
Corruption and bureaucracy 3.0
Other 12.6
No problems 3.1
"In your opinion, how will the social-economic situation in
Belarus change in the next few years?"
Answer %
------ ----
Will get better 30.9
No change 45.1
Will worsen 14.9
No answer 9.1
Cold Shoulder to the U.S.?
--------------------------
11. IISEPS asked the respondents to choose five countries
that they believe are friendly and not friendly towards
Belarus:
Friendly % Unfriendly %
-------- ---- ---------- ----
Russia 71.4 U.S. 56.0
Ukraine 33.8 Poland 28.9
China 21.9 Latvia 23.8
Kazakhstan 21.0 Lithuania 22.6
Germany 20.4 Britain 13.9
12. Manaev explained that the negative attitude towards the
U.S. did not exist five years ago. The statistics above
also correspond to polling conducted in Russia. More
Belarusians (5.1 percent) viewed North Korea as friendlier
than the U.S. (2.6 percent). 44.4 percent believe the West
considers Belarus an enemy, but an almost equal percentage
(42.6) disagrees. The attitude towards Americans as a
people, however, is not as harsh:
"What level of a relationship with representatives of the
following nationalities is acceptable to you?"
Answer Russian Ukrainian Polish Westerners Americans
------ ------- --------- ------ ---------- ---------
Family
relations 52.4 30.9 29.0 17.0 11.0
Work
together 16.7 21.3 23.5 23.7 22.3
Live in
vicinity 15.1 26.0 23.6 21.9 17.1
Live in
one city 4.6 7.6 7.5 12.7 11.4
Live in
Belarus 7.4 9.9 11.9 20.1 31.5
Unions
------
13. Fifty percent of respondents believe Russia and Belarus
should form a union with close political and economic ties
while maintaining separate sovereignties. 29 percent think
the status quo is appropriate, but only 13 percent believe
Belarus should turn over its sovereignty to Russia. In a
similar question, 59.2 percent of respondents favored a
union with Russia over admittance to the EU whereas 28.6
percent thought the opposite.
Polish Problem
--------------
14. The Union of Belarusian Poles (UBP) continues to be a
topic in the local media. Even though the state media
blames the conflict on the West and Poland, respondents had
different opinions:
"In your opinion, what is the main reason for the conflict?"
Answer %
------ ----
Polish and Western interference 24.4
GOB wish to control the UBP 19.8
Finance: Inner UBP struggle
for money 9.0
UBP conference broke the law 8.7
Other 0.4
No answer 37.7
Information and Communication
-----------------------------
15. Most respondents (79.1 percent) watch local state TV
channels, 32.6 percent watch programs on cable, and only 9.9
percent own satellites. The number of respondents with
mobile phones increased to 43.8 percent and continues to
climb. 68 percent do not use a computer, but 33.6 percent
use computers at work, home, or at the library. Those who
use computers do use the internet on an infrequent basis.
Only four percent are online daily, seven percent are online
several times a week, 6.6 percent several times a month, and
2.9 percent several times a year.
16. Forty percent of respondents listen to government radio
programs and 23.7 listen to Belarusian FM stations on a
daily basis. Manaev reported that the latter figure is a
two-fold increase. Less than one percent listens to Radio
Freedom in Belarusian or Russian. When asked, however, 58.8
percent of those polled would like to receive regular
independent radio and television news from other countries
(Poland, Ukraine, Latvia, Lithuania). Manaev pointed out
that this is another figure that has increased. As for
Deutsche Welles broadcasts into Belarus, 36.8 percent want
the broadcasts in Russian, 24.8 percent in both Russian and
Belarusian, and only 8.9 percent believe the broadcasts
should only be in Belarusian. However, 42.4 percent trust
that Belarusian mass of information accurately reports on
the activities and life of Western countries. Thirty
percent disagreed, claiming the news portrayed the Western
activities and life worse than what actually exists.
KROL
Latest source of this page is cablebrowser-2, released 2011-10-04