US embassy cable - 05MINSK1227

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MINSK 001227 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/06/15 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, PINR, BO 
SUBJECT:  "BELARUS' ELECTION MORE DEMOCRATIC THAN THOSE IN 
U.S." 
 
Ref: Minsk 1164 
 
MINSK 00001227  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
Classified by Ambassador George Krol for Reasons 1.4 (B,D) 
 
1. (C) Summary: In an October 5 meeting, Head of the 
Central Election Committee (CEC) Ludmilla Yermoshina and 
her deputy explained to Pol Chief the processes of choosing 
an election date and registering presidential candidates. 
The election will be no later than July 20 and campaigning 
will begin no later than April 20.  Nominated individuals 
must collect 100,000 signatures before the CEC officially 
registers them as candidates.  The GOB finances each 
candidate's presidential campaign and provides free 
television and radio time as well as printed leaflets.  The 
price tag of next year's election doubled to 17 million and 
is attributed to higher wages and the falling US dollar.  A 
candidate's party affiliation is not relevant to the CEC 
registration process, but candidates cannot collectively 
garner support from citizens without their permission.  The 
GOB plans to invite observers, but Yermoshina did not 
specify whether OSCE observers would be invited.  According 
to Yermoshina, Belarusian elections are democratic and 
transparent whereas U.S. elections are not. End Summary. 
 
2. (U) Pol Chief and poloff met with head of the CEC 
Ludmilla Yermoshina and her deputy head Nikolai Lozovik on 
October 5.  Yermoshina briefed Pol Chief on her background 
as a lawyer and local government administrator in the 
Bobruisk/Mogilev region before assuming her job at the CEC 
nine years ago.  Yermoshina joked that in being named head 
of the CEC, she assumed such a large role so quickly that 
it was like "a sergeant being promoted to colonel." 
Lozovik mentioned his time in the opposition and was one of 
the MPs who signed the motion to impeach Lukashenko in 
1996.  He has worked at the CEC for five years. 
 
Need An Election Date 
--------------------- 
 
3. (C) Yermoshina explained the time frame for elections 
and campaigning.  According to Belarusian law, the 
presidential election is to take place no later than two 
months before the end of the incumbent's presidency. 
Lukashenko's term ends on September 20, so the elections 
must take place before July 20.  Candidates cannot begin 
campaigning until three months before the election, meaning 
no later than April 20.  The Parliament will choose a date 
for elections at the beginning of their spring session. 
 
The Signature Campaign 
---------------------- 
 
4. (C) The most important requisite for nominating a 
presidential candidate is the ability to collect the 
necessary 100,000 signatures.  The potential candidate must 
first register at the CEC his/her name and all individuals 
in his/her nomination group that will help gather the 
signatures.  These groups can be political parties, social 
organizations (i.e. trade unions and youth groups), 
collective organizations (collectivized companies), or ad- 
hoc groups of supporter, all of which cannot have fewer 
than 100 people.  According to Yermoshina, this 
registration process is very easy.  The registered group 
members are given CEC-issued accreditation cards for 
identification purposes.  Signatures gathered by an 
unaccredited person are considered void. 
 
5. (C) Once registered with the CEC, the group members are 
given one month to collect the needed signatures.  Lozovik 
admitted the difficulty in gathering 100,000 signatures, 
especially for groups with only 100 members.  He noted that 
in 2001, 23 groups nominated candidates but only 4 were 
successful in collecting the signatures.   Lozovik opined 
that the greatest difficulty in gathering signatures is 
that citizens do not like signing petitions of any kind. 
 
6. (C) All signatures collected must be turned into the 
respective regional CEC.  Each regional CEC tallies the 
number of signatures for each candidate and reports to the 
oblast CEC and then to the national CEC.  Yermoshina 
admitted that the process is very large, but the CEC's 
structure allows Yermoshina to know more accurate results 
than the candidates themselves.  The CEC only has ten days 
to check the signatures' validity, and therefore, can only 
check 20 percent of each candidate's list.  Yermoshina 
claimed it is the candidates' responsibility to ensure the 
signatures are legitimate, and therefore, the local CEC 
will speak directly with people who signed the nomination 
 
MINSK 00001227  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
petition to confirm their legitimacy. 
 
Campaign Finance and Airtime 
---------------------------- 
 
7. (C) Once the candidate collects the needed signatures 
and is successfully registered with the CEC as a 
presidential candidate, the CEC provides the candidates 
with approximately USD 27,000 in campaign assistance.  All 
candidates receive free airtime on the radio and television 
but as Yermoshina noted, would not be allowed to speak as 
long as they like.  Candidates are given two half-hour time 
slots for both radio and TV and the time slots are randomly 
chosen.  The CEC will also publish leaflets for each 
candidate and allow them to print campaign materials ???E 
in all government papers.  In addition to the financial and 
material support, candidates will be allowed to choose a 
venue for campaigning, paid for by the government. 
However, as Lozovik pointed out, the CEC cannot force 
private establishments to host a candidate and his 
supporters if he/she is opposed.  Therefore, options on 
venues are reduced down to city buildings and the numerous 
"Houses of Culture." 
 
8. (C) Yermoshina estimated the price of next year's 
election to be USD 17 million, blaming the two-fold 
increase on the higher wages and the decreasing value of 
the U.S. dollar. [Note: Yermoshina chuckled when mentioning 
the latter.]  Lozovik explained that most of the money goes 
to paying the local CEC a minimum of members USD 200 during 
the election month. 
 
Does Party Affiliation Matter? 
------------------------------ 
 
9. (C) According to Yermoshina, a candidate's party 
affiliation does not concern the CEC.  Answering Pol 
Chief's question, Lozovik claimed that the Ministry of 
Justice's new decree that all congresses, coalitions, and 
associations must be registered with the GOB would not 
affect the electoral process (reftel).  Pol Chief asked 
whether the CEC could eliminate the single candidate 
Aleksandr Milinkevich as a candidate if the MOJ declared 
the 10+ coalition an illegal entity.  Yermoshina claimed 
that the 10+ and their single candidate congress did not 
concern the CEC.  All that matters is that candidates 
collect the necessary signatures and register with the CEC. 
 
Registered Support 
------------------ 
 
10. (C) Every candidate is allowed to nominate 30 
supporters who are legally allowed to campaign and speak on 
the candidate's behalf in radio/TV interviews or at rallies 
and conferences.  Candidates cannot enroll or volunteer 
people into their campaign without their permission. 
Lozovik gave an example of how one candidate in 2001 
nominated an entire library staff as supporters without 
notifying or asking permission from each staffer.  A CEC- 
led investigation revealed that several members of the 
library staff did not know they were part of any campaign 
nor were asked to join.  Yermoshina told Pol Chief that 
upon request the CEC would investigate these illegal 
campaign recruitments. 
 
The Observer Question 
--------------------- 
 
11. (C) Yermoshina informed Pol Chief that international 
observers are welcome, but the President, Parliament, or 
MFA would decide who is invited.  The CEC normally invites 
observers from countries that have invited GOB observers to 
monitor their own elections.  Yermoshina did not answer 
whether the OSCE would be invited to observe and said that 
issue would be decided by he MFA.  Yermoshina claimed that 
unlike the U.S., Belarus has always welcomed international 
observers and allows them to observe all election 
processes, from the opening of the poll booths to the 
counting of the ballots.  She admitted that the CEC 
regulates where observers are allowed to stand and conceded 
that there have been complaints that observers were unable 
to view the ballot counting.  According to Yermoshina, 
observers are given a seat from which all processes are 
easily viewable. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
 
MINSK 00001227  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
12. (C) As Post expected, Yermoshina painted a rosy picture 
of free and fair elections in Belarus and a CEC that works 
fairly with all candidates. Despite Yermoshina's testimony 
to the transparency and fairness of the CEC, it is 
difficult to believe much of what was said.  Though 
Yermoshina claimed a party's registration status with the 
government is irrelevant to the CEC, the MOJ decree was 
clearly established to serve as a potential obstacle to 
pro-democratic presidential hopefuls.  Gathering 100,000 
signatures is difficult, especially when the CEC 
arbitrarily declares many of them void or falsified, 
moreover, Post cannot remember the last time an opposition 
candidate was allowed to speak on public television, let 
alone radio, unless it was accompanied by government 
propaganda. 
 
13. (C) Yermoshina, with a fake smile and laugh, did not 
hesitate to criticize the U.S. and EU for not inviting GOB 
observers to our "undemocratic" elections.  She politely 
told poloffs that the CEC would be more than willing to 
hold seminars in the U.S. on how to hold democratic 
elections, if only they were invited.  Yermoshina mentioned 
how insulted she was when Europe named her the "face of 
election falsification" and banned her from all EU 
territory. [Note: She did not directly mention her U.S. 
travel ban.  Recent interviews with Yermoshina in both the 
independent and government press, together with our 
meeting, indicate that Yermoshina is deeply upset about 
these travel restrictions.] 
 
14. (C) In an attempt to portray themselves as honest 
government officials and not Lukashenko pawns, Yermoshina 
often referred to Lozovik's time as an opposition member 
who tried to impeach Lukashenko.  Lozovik claimed that 
could not be considered a dictator because he had appointed 
Lozovik, the man who tried to impeach him, as the CEC 
deputy.  Despite what seemed to be underlying bitterness 
toward the US and EU, the officials told Pol Chief they 
would be willing to meet with Embassy officials in the 
future and would answer any questions. 
 
KROL