US embassy cable - 05NEWDELHI7803

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 007803 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/05/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PTER, PGOV, IN, PK, INDO-PAK 
SUBJECT: HOME SECRETARY OPTIMISTIC ON PAKISTANI TIES, BUT 
LAMENTS SLOW PROGRESS ON TERRORISM 
 
 
Classified By: DCM Robert Blake, Jr. for Reasons 1.4 (B, D) 
 
1.  (C) Summary: Reviewing India-Pakistan relations for 
visiting US Ambassador to Islamabad Ryan Crocker, Home 
Secretary VK Duggal observed on October 4 that Indo-Pak 
 
SIPDIS 
relations are generally "on the upswing," but lamented the 
lack of concrete evidence of a change of Pakistani intentions 
toward India.  Duggal stressed the need for Pakistan to 
dismantle infrastructure to support terrorism.  Despite 
reservations about Islamabad's sincerity, however, PM 
Manmohan Singh has directed the GOI to continue the policy of 
rapprochement with Pakistan.  End Summary. 
 
Rapprochement Popular 
--------------------- 
 
2.  (C) Noting the broad responsibilities of the Ministry of 
Home Affairs in most aspects of Indo-Pak relations, Duggal 
observed that, in Confidence-Building Measures, 
people-to-people exchanges, cultural and sports exchanges, 
and new and proposed bus services between India and Pakistan, 
"everything seems to be moving okay."  He regretted the "lost 
opportunity" to expand tourism when Pakistan decided at the 
last minute to refuse visas to a delegation from India's 
tourism and travel industry, pointing out that India's 
300-million-strong (and growing) middle class would be 
enthusiastic tourists to Pakistan, boosting cross-border ties 
and adding to Pakistan's economy. 
 
3.  (C) Domestic Indian tourism in Jammu and Kashmir is also 
a product of warming ties and a reduced number of security 
incidents, Duggal said, noting that 400,000 to 500,000 
tourists had visited J&K this year, and that the GOI had been 
able to open the Vaishno Devi shrine to a record number of 
pilgrims. 
 
Less Positive on Security 
------------------------- 
 
4.  (C) Duggal commented that he would "like to say" that 
things are better on the security front, but despite 
Pakistan's statements against cross-border terrorism, the 
facts on the ground do not provide enough evidence of an 
irreversible change in policy.  Sometimes, he observed, the 
right hand may not know what the left hand is doing, but if 
terrorist incidents occur regularly, it is more difficult for 
the GOI to accept that it is not state policy.  However, he 
noted, infiltration across the line of control and terrorist 
attacks in India have declined somewhat, and the overall 
level of terrorism is not too high to prevent India from 
moving forward in its dialogue with Pakistan. 
 
5.  (C) Unfortunately, Duggal continued, while the number of 
incidents has declined, the choice of targets in recent 
incidents has dismayed New Delhi.  Bombs in Srinagar that 
targeted schools and marketplaces are more difficult to 
accept than attacks on army personnel, and the July 5 attack 
on the disputed Ayodhya temple complex "could have been a 
major disaster" had the attackers been able to reach the 
temple itself. 
 
Cooperation Continues Despite Frustrations 
------------------------------------------ 
 
6.  (C) In addition to continuing terrorism and infiltration, 
India has evidence of militant training camps in Pakistan and 
the entry of Pakistani-backed terrorists into India via Nepal 
and Bangladesh, Duggal stated.  Despite a 1989 agreement to 
return wanted criminals, Pakistan has not made any steps to 
extradite persons wanted by India, including Dawood Ibrahim 
and the Sikh organizers of the May 22 New Delhi cinema 
bombings, Duggal complained.  Nevertheless, PM Manmohan Singh 
has instructed the security services to take defensive 
actions to guard the country against terrorism, even as the 
GOI continues the peace dialogue with Islamabad.  While New 
Delhi would like a "quid pro quo," Duggal commented, the 
process is still "quid, quid, quid." 
 
7.  (C) Ambassador Crocker pointed out Islamabad's commitment 
to its ongoing anti-terrorist operations in North Waziristan, 
including the willingness to take casualties, observing that 
Musharraf appears to have realized that he cannot afford to 
lose the campaign against militant groups.  Islamabad may not 
yet have decided its strategy for reining in the terrorist 
groups, but it has concluded that they are dangerous to 
Pakistan, and Musharraf realizes that the insurgency in 
Kashmir is linked to the groups who attempted to assassinate 
him.  Even Pakistani mass media coverage of Kashmiri leaders 
has shown evidence of this shift in the last year, focusing 
on more moderate figures in place of hard-liners like 
Geelani, who used to be featured. 
 
Still a Ways to Go 
------------------ 
 
8.  (C) Duggal agreed with Ambassador Crocker's assessment of 
Pakistan's choices, but pointed out that comprehensively 
stopping terrorism would be difficult for Islamabad because 
of the extensive network of madrassas, training camps, 
weapons procurement rings, and drug mafias that combined to 
support militancy.  Kashmir has had "absolutely free" 
elections, he said, and Pakistan has no more reason to speak 
about freedom for Kashmir.  He noted that India and Pakistan 
had agreed five years before to cooperate against the drug 
trafficking that funds the terror networks, but complained 
Pakistan had not yet agreed to the MOU to govern that 
cooperation.  However, he concluded, PM Singh's decision to 
continue rapprochement guides GOI policy, and the security 
services have been able to cope with the current level of 
threats emanating from Pakistan. 
 
9.  (U) Ambassador Crocker has cleared this message. 
 
10.  (U) Visit New Delhi's Classified Website: 
(http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/sa/newdelhi/) 
Mulford