US embassy cable - 05RIODEJANEIRO1118

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 RIO DE JANEIRO 001118 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, KCOR, BR 
SUBJECT: Garotinho: President-in-Waiting or Political Exile? 
 
 
1. Summary.  Despite a series of polls and articles 
discussing the presidential chances of Rio de Janeiro's 
popular and populist ex-governor Anthony Garotinho, the issue 
of whether he is even eligible to run will not be decided for 
several days.  Even if the electoral courts choose not to 
revoke his political rights because of irregular practices in 
last year's municipal elections, however, Garotinho's chances 
to be Brazil's next president will be hurt the longer the 
ongoing corruption scandal continues. 
 
Will he run at all? 
------------------- 
 
2. Several recent articles in major Brazilian newspapers have 
discussed the presidential candidacy of Rio de Janeiro's 
popular ex-governor Anthony Garotinho (usually in negative 
terms).  A recent poll by the polling group IBOPE also showed 
Garotinho with the largest percentage of first round votes in 
an election without President Lula and in third place if Lula 
should run. 
 
3. Yet despite the heated discussion of his potential 
candidacy, it is not clear whether Garotinho will be able to 
run for president, as his eligibility to hold political 
office is the subject of a case before the Regional Electoral 
Tribunal (TRE) related to electoral violations in last year's 
municipal elections.  If the TRE decides to uphold an earlier 
suspension of Garotinho's political rights, his campaign may 
die before it even begins.  A decision is expected early in 
October, and if it goes against Garotinho it will probably be 
appealed to the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE).  Several 
other politicians accused of similar crimes recently had 
their political rights suspended by the same TRE, including 
the mayor of the city of Campos, a Garotinho stronghold. 
 
If he runs, will it matter? 
--------------------------- 
 
4. Even if Garotinho is able to run, it is not certain that 
he will be a powerful candidate come 2006, because the 
ongoing corruption scandal is slowly damaging his candidacy 
in several ways. 
 
- While the scandal has weakened President Lula's position 
substantially, anticorruption is not a strong plank in 
Garotinho's platform given his own dubious record and the 
fact that his base of power is in Rio de Janeiro, where 
corruption and politics are almost synonyms.  The longer 
public attention is focused on corruption, the worse 
Garotinho's chances will be as the public looks for more 
respectable candidates.  Garotinho's own PMDB party has been 
reluctant to endorse his candidacy, and has reportedly 
approached several other potential candidates. 
 
- The scandal is also drawing the spotlight to other 
political actors and events.  A recent Globo article on 
Garotinho's growing nationwide network of evangelical radio 
stations was buried deep in the back, while the front page 
featured a report on the almost celebrity-like fame of the 
investigation committee members.  Garotinho has done an 
admirable job of keeping his name in the news despite the 
scandal, but with limited political coverage to go around his 
lack of any prominent role in the scandal may hurt his 
visibility. 
 
- If the economy continues to perform well and the public 
tires of the seemingly endless investigations, Lula may yet 
emerge as a viable candidate for the 2006 elections.  As 
Garotinho and Lula draw their support from the same populist 
base, another Lula candidacy would probably spell the end for 
Garotinho's political chances.  Garotinho himself seems to 
recognize this.  At a recent book signing he took the 
opportunity to snipe at Lula's populist credentials, claiming 
that Lula is being kept in power not by the people but rather 
by a self-interested elite who want to avoid damaging the 
economy (Comment: This is a fairly accurate analysis, but 
Lula also still enjoys considerable support among the general 
populace.) 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
5. Garotinho appears to be down but by no means out of the 
presidential race.  If he can survive the investigation by 
the electoral commissions, he remains a potent political 
force, with his wide popular base and his ties to the 
evangelical movement.  At the very least, he could garner 
enough votes to force a second round.  And if the economy 
should take a turn for the worse or if the scandal reaches 
Lula's doorstep, he may in fact turn into a frontrunner.  In 
the short term, however, he is likely to face an uphill 
battle to capture national attention away from the corruption 
scandals. 
 
6.  This cable was cleared by Embassy Brasilia. 
 
ATKINS