US embassy cable - 05DUSHANBE1617

C O N F I D E N T I A L  DUSHANBE 001617 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
EUR/CACEN 
S - SUSAN ELLIOTT 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL:  10/6/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, TI 
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR VISIT OF SECRETARY RICE TO TAJIKISTAN 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: Richard Hoagland, Ambassador, EXEC, State. 
REASON: 1.4 (b), (d) 
 
Madame Secretary: 
 
1. (U)  Embassy Dushanbe welcomes your visit to Tajikistan, the 
first-ever by a Secretary of State to Tajikistan as an 
independent country.  The historical importance is not lost on 
Tajikistan's leaders or people.  All will have high expectations 
of a successful visit leading to closer cooperation. 
 
TAJIKISTAN A KEY REGIONAL PLAYER 
 
2. (U)  While it has taken Tajikistan some time to recover from 
the civil war of the 1990's, it has taken even longer for the 
international community to realize that Tajikistan is now firmly 
on the map as a regional player in Central Asia.  Tajikistan 
remains the poorest post-Soviet state, with many people getting 
by on a monthly salary of only $30 a month.  However, that is 
supplemented by Tajikistan's strong family networks and 
remittances from Tajiks working abroad, mainly in Russia. 
Tajikistan's leaders hope to break out of this economic dilemma 
through an ambitious hydro-energy development effort that would 
power not only a growing industrial capability at home, but also 
Afghanistan and Pakistan, two countries with growing energy 
requirements. 
 
3. (U)  Tajikistan's borders are open to trade, despite 
Uzbekistan's recalcitrance (Uzbekistan does not even allow 
flights between Tashkent and Dushanbe) and there is growing 
interest by China, Iran, Pakistan, and the other Central Asian 
states in trading with this former Silk Road state. 
 
TAJIK LEADERSHIP AND POLITICS 
 
4. (C)  President Emomali Rahmonov is a former collective farm 
administrator who has proven to be adept at moving his agenda at 
a pace that the public accepts.  Polls and our own observations 
confirm that he is for now a respected and well-liked leader who 
has brought stability to a country that experienced a wrenching 
civil war.  Rahmonov can be ruthless with opponents, but some of 
this opponents are indeed dangerous, such as the former Drug 
Control Chief Mirzoyev, who probably would not have hesitated to 
plot a coup against Rahmonov.  could have threatened Rahmonov 
for power.  The United States urged Rahmonov to remove Mirzoyev, 
and he did.  Rahmonov's maneuvering has allowed him to run for 
two additional seven-year terms, and potentially be in power 
until 2020.  In that amount of time, he could certainly wear out 
his welcome, especially if his inner circle is seen as corruptly 
reaping too many of the benefits of Tajikistan's development. 
Tajikistan is a secular, centralized but multi-party state with 
most real decisions made by President Rahmonov.  Tajikistan 
boasts the only legal Islamic Party in Central Asia.  The 
government continues to improve in terms of delivering services 
and accepting international norms. 
 
U.S.-TAJIK RELATIONS 
 
5.  (C)  There is definitely a reservoir of goodwill for the 
United States because of U.S. humanitarian assistance during the 
civil war.  The United States is still recognized as a major 
partner, but Russia's influence is large and pervasive.  The 
United States can only remain relevant in Tajikistan through 
continued engagement - assistance for counternarcotics, border 
management, and, increasingly, economic reform.  Attracting a 
major U.S. company to Tajikistan would bolster the political 
relationship enormously.  Mining, oil and gas, adventure 
tourism, and hydropower are the most promising sectors for 
economic development. 
 
TAJIK-AFGHAN RELATIONS 
 
6. (U)  While some Central Asian states see Afghanistan as 
simply a source of instability and extremism, Tajikistan sees 
Afghanistan as a good neighbor and a country whose future is 
vitally tied to its own.  More than instability, it is drug 
trafficking from Afghanistan transiting Tajikistan that 
threatens Tajikistan's future.  International assistance to help 
Tajikistan police its own borders after this year's withdrawal 
of Russian border forces is critical to Tajikistan remaining a 
state with border integrity and indeed sovereignty.  There is a 
danger of Tajikistan becoming a narco-state if the flow of drugs 
is not limited.  President Rahmonov visits with President Karzai 
regularly and supports Afghanistan publicly and through the few 
means he has at his disposal, including with Drug Control Agents 
operating in Afghanistan and cooperating with Afghan 
 
authorities. 
 
DEMOCRACY AND PRESS FREEDOM 
 
7.  (C)  We're not there yet, but neither is this another 
Uzbekistan.  Tajikistan is not in danger of a "Color Revolution" 
because the government is genuinely popular and respected. 
However, the government uses that popularity to deal 
aggressively with opponents both in politics and the media.  The 
Embassy tries to reinforce the message that those means of using 
power are not needed and counterproductive.  We also emphasize 
that greater democracy provides for greater stability, a key 
theme of the President, given the country's collective fear of 
returning to any sort of turbulence that could upset 
Tajikistan's slow and steady progress. 
 
 
HOAGLAND 
 
 
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