US embassy cable - 02ABUJA3034

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 003034 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/03/2012 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, NI 
SUBJECT: NIGERIA:  PDP SETS PRIMARY SCHEDULE; FAILS TO 
RESOLVE OBASANJO/ATIKU RIFT 
 
 
REF: ABUJA 2975 
 
 
Classified by Ambassador Howard F. Jeter.  Reasons:  1.5 (B & 
D) 
 
 
1.  (C)  SUMMARY:  The ruling PDP's National Executive 
Committee met October 31 in a failed effort to heal the 
Obasanjo/Atiku rift, according to Deputy House Speaker 
Nwuche.  The Vice President's faction won the three key 
decisions at the four-hour meeting.  First, efforts by 
Obasanjo's supporters to adopt the Obasanjo/Atiku ticket by 
consensus were rejected.  Second, the session backed the 
legislators' proposed (and Atiku's preferred) primary 
timetable and, third, it nullified the requirement that 
candidates complete "intent to run" forms early which would 
have forced Atiku to make known his intentions to challenge 
Obasanjo.  Now Atiku has more flexibility and time to 
decide.  The inability to resolve the rift between its two 
top office-holders demonstrated again the strength of 
factionalism within the PDP.  Reconciliation will prove 
elusive and infighting will likely grow more intense as the 
countdown to primaries and the party convention approaches. 
End Summary. 
 
 
2.  (C)  The ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP) 
National Executive Committee (NEC) October 31 meeting 
failed to heal the political rift between President 
Olusegun Obasanjo and Vice President Atiku Abubakar. 
During a private breakfast meeting at the Ambassador's 
Residence the following day, Deputy Speaker of the House of 
Representatives Chibudom Nwuche told Ambassador Jeter that 
Obasanjo and Atiku communicate only through "surrogates," 
and the gap between the two appeared to be widening. 
During the NEC meeting, attended by Obasanjo, Atiku, 
senators, governors and party officials past and present, 
the NEC rejected a proposal by Edo State Governor Igbegnion 
to adopt Obasanjo and Atiku (as well as all sitting 
governors and their deputies) as consensus candidates for 
the anticipated 2003 elections. 
 
 
3.  (C)  Nwuche further said the NEC also rejected the 
President's efforts to hold the presidential primary before 
the other national and state primaries.  Obasanjo had hoped 
to win his presidential spot then use this secured position 
to promote his choices for legislative and gubernatorial 
nominations.  Moreover, with Obasanjo securing his place 
first, the contestants in the other races would need his 
support and, in the process, be obliged to promise their 
loyalty.  At the end of the NEC meeting, however, PDP 
Chairman Audu Ogbeh announced that the party's primaries 
would commence mid-December starting with nominations for 
the State Houses of Assembly; no timetable for the 
subsequent primaries was announced. 
 
 
4.  (C)  In a related development, the PDP also adopted 
guidelines for nominations, setting fees for potential 
candidates, starting at five million Naira (38 thousand 
dollars) for President and dropping to 100,000 Naira (820 
dollars) for State Houses of Assembly.  To encourage female 
candidates, PDP Chairman Ogbeh announced that the fees 
would be waived for women.  Adding further to the 
uncertainty surrounding the process, the NEC also 
eliminated the deadline for potential candidates to declare 
their intentions by nid-November - a gambit designed to 
flush out Atiku.  Instead, candidates will be able to file 
until the eve of the primaries. 
 
 
5.  (C)  COMMENT:  The PDP was yet again unable to resolve 
the differences between the President and his Vice.  The 
Vice President's forces emerged from the NEC strengthened, 
with Obasanjo's weaknesses evident.  Unable to get himself 
selected as a consensus candidate, Obasanjo now must temper 
himself for a tough fight for the nomination, with Atiku as 
one likely, if late, challenger.  The primary timetable and 
the elimination of the filing deadline serve Atiku's 
interests, giving him the chance to assess his chances and 
delay announcing his candidacy until the last minute before 
directly challenging Obasanjo.  The indirect challenge will 
take shape around the primary process, with each campaign 
turning into a miniature test of strength between Obasanjo, 
on the one hand, and Atiku and other challengers, on the 
other. 
ANDREWS