US embassy cable - 05AMMAN7979

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 AMMAN 007979 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/05/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, KISL, KMPI, JO 
SUBJECT: NATIONAL AGENDA COMMISSION COMPLETES ITS WORK, BUT 
LEAVES KEY ELECTORAL ISSUE UNRESOLVED 
 
REF: A. AMMAN 7498 
     B. AMMAN 6898 
 
Classified By: CDA David Hale for Reasons 1.4 (b), (d) 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1.  (C) The royal commission charged with drafting a 
comprehensive National Agenda has completed its reform 
recommendations.  Consensus was reached on all major issues 
except for electoral reform, with East Banker traditionalists 
determined to gut the proposed "national list" system.  The 
GOJ plans to present the King with a copy of the Agenda for 
his final approval in mid-October.  Key members of parliament 
are already gearing up for a fight over the Agenda, while the 
government struggles to develop a strategy to sell its 
benefits to a skeptical public.  End Summary. 
 
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ROYAL COMMISSION COMES TO AN END 
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2.  (C) Post contacts have confirmed that the royal 
commission charged with drafting the National Agenda has 
concluded its final group meeting.  The 26 members of the 
commission were able to reach consensus on a broad range of 
recommendations for reform, with the important exception of a 
new electoral law -- the core of any move toward 
democratization, and a reform that would potentially 
transform the Jordanian parliament.  From the start of the 
Agenda process, East Bank traditionalists opposed major 
changes to the existing system of electoral districts that 
over-represent rural and tribal areas at the expense of the 
urbanized Palestinian-Jordanian majority.  Senator Osama 
Malkawi, a conservative East Banker and a member of the 
commission's sub-group tasked with political reform, told 
poloff October 4 that he saw "no reason and no demand by the 
people" to change the current system.  Nevertheless, under 
strong pressure from other members of the sub-group, he 
eventually agreed to a proposal that would divide seats in 
parliament among deputies elected from geographic electoral 
districts, and those chosen from "national lists" of 
candidates submitted by political parties or independent 
groups and presented to all Jordanian voters.  The proposal 
would further scrap existing parliamentary quotas for women, 
Christians and Circassians, and instead oblige all national 
lists to include candidates from each of these groups. 
 
3.  (C) Fearing that national lists of candidates could 
weaken their hold on parliament, East Bank traditionalists 
quickly acted to gut the proposal when it moved from the 
sub-group to the full commission for debate.  According to 
Ashraf Zeitoon, personal assistant to Deputy PM Marwan 
Muasher (who leads the commission), Senator Rajai Muasher - 
Marwan's cousin - vocally rallied other traditionalists on 
the commission to demand that citizens be given only one vote 
to cast in the mixed system, knowing full well that tribal 
allegiances, family pressure and low public regard for most 
political parties would ensure that a large majority of 
Jordanians would opt to vote for a candidate from their 
geographic district.  NOTE:  In an October 5 discussion with 
poloff, Senator Muasher argued that a one vote limit would 
"benefit" political parties by forcing them to develop 
platforms responsive to public needs in order to attract 
votes for the national lists.  He similarly argued that a one 
vote limit would make voters "seriously consider the role and 
platforms of parties" in deciding whether to vote for 
candidates on a national list or a candidate from their 
district, rather than "throw away their vote for a party 
without thinking" under a two-vote system.  END NOTE. 
 
4.  (C) Modernizers in the commission were equally adamant 
that citizens be given two votes to cast.  Commission member 
and women's activist Nuha Ma'aytah told poloff October 4 that 
giving Jordanians only one vote in the mixed system was 
"unacceptable" as it would render the national lists 
"meaningless."  She feared - and Senator Malkawi confirmed - 
that if a single vote system were adopted, traditionalists 
would use the lack of votes for national list candidates in 
the next parliamentary elections to argue for abolishing the 
lists.  The commission member from the Islamic Action Front 
(IAF), Abdul al-Latif Arabiyat, likewise was unyielding in 
advocating for giving citizens two votes as he recognized 
that the IAF - as the most visible and respected political 
party - had the most to gain from the election of MPs from 
national lists (ref A). 
 
5.  (C) Zeitoon described the interchange between commission 
members over the electoral issue as "very heated," with 
frequent bouts of yelling and several instances of members 
leaving their seats and walking out of meetings in protest. 
Although Deputy PM Muasher was "determined" for the 
commission to reach consensus, he eventually realized that no 
compromise was possible and reluctantly agreed to finalize a 
draft that contains two proposals on electoral reform -- one 
recommending one vote per person in a mixed electoral 
district/national list system, the other recommending two 
votes per person.  All four senators on the commission, in 
addition to all four of the MPs from the lower house of 
parliament, reportedly lined up behind the one-vote proposal. 
 
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NEXT STEPS AND UNANSWERED QUESTIONS 
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6.  (C) Deputy PM Muasher told Charge on October 3 that the 
National Agenda is now in the final drafting stage, with the 
recommendations being edited for submission to the printer. 
No more meetings of the commission as a whole will be held, 
though Muasher may consult with members on an individual 
basis.  Muasher plans to provide King Abdullah with a copy of 
the recommendations by mid-October for his review and 
approval, after which it will be rolled out to the public. 
According to Zeitoon, the National Agenda will be comprised 
of two separate documents or "packages."  The first will be 
roughly 180 pages in length and will include an executive 
summary and reader-friendly charts and graphs to help explain 
the Agenda's varied recommendations, which cover eight 
subject areas.  The second will contain benchmarks and 
indicators that ministries will use in formulating action 
plans to monitor implementation of the Agenda. 
 
7.  (C) Several questions related to electoral reform remain 
unanswered.  The number of seats in parliament allotted to 
candidates chosen from the national lists, for example, is 
unspecified.  The proposals envision a gradual increase in 
this number, but do not provide a baseline for the next 
parliamentary elections.  NOTE: According to Deputy PM 
Muasher and Zeitoon, Arabiyat from the IAF was surprisingly 
flexible on this issue.  END NOTE.  Both the single vote and 
two-vote proposals recommend redrawing electoral districts so 
that there is one district per seat in parliament - currently 
most districts elect two or more MPs to the lower house - but 
with no guidelines on how these districts should be drawn. 
Senator Muasher told poloff that in his opinion, the 
districts should not be drawn on the basis of population 
alone, but must take into account "geography, population, and 
level of development."  Finally, it is unclear whether the 
King or the government will make a choice between the single 
vote and two-vote proposals prior to the public launch of the 
National Agenda, or whether it will contain both electoral 
reform recommendations. 
 
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A TOUGH SELL 
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8.  (C) While the GOJ has expended considerable effort in 
developing the National Agenda, this does not appear to have 
carried over to plans to market the Agenda to the public. 
Zeitoon promised poloff that there would be a "publicity 
blitz and roadshow" to include numerous town hall meetings 
and forums targeting a wide variety of social groups.  He was 
very short on specifics, however, and admitted that garnering 
strong public approval would be an uphill battle given that 
many Jordanians are very skeptical that the Agenda will make 
any real difference in their lives. 
 
9.  (C) The battle to win over the public will depend in part 
on who is actively engaged in promoting the Agenda to 
Jordanians.  PM Badran and Deputy PM Muasher are expected to 
lead the public relations effort, but their appeal may be 
limited in view of the government's low public approval 
ratings, recently made worse by unpopular fuel price hikes. 
Zeitoon said the GOJ would like prominent members of the 
commission to address the public on the Agenda's behalf since 
the combined voices of these members - who represent very 
different interest groups - could help sway popular opinion. 
Given the lack of consensus on electoral reform, however, it 
seems unlikely that all of the commission members would agree 
to this.  Senator Muasher told poloff that while he was 
"optimistic about parts of the Agenda," he had serious 
reservations about other parts - though he did not block 
consensus on them - and could not in good faith stump for the 
whole package.  Arabiyat has already publicly criticized the 
National Agenda commission, stating in an interview with 
Arabic weekly Al Sabeel on October 4 that the commission 
rejected a number of electoral reform proposals because 
"countervailing forces want to ensure that this country never 
enjoys a Chamber of Deputies that really represents the 
people." 
 
10.  (C) Even some of the modernizers on the commission have 
mixed feelings about the process.  Businessman and journalist 
Mohammad Elayyan told PAO that he was disappointed that his 
fellow commission members did not embrace a "deeper level" of 
democratic reform.  He added that in his opinion, some 
recommendations were pushed through without adequate 
discussion, and that some members "knew where they wanted the 
commission to go from the start."  Elayyan was concerned that 
Agenda proponents might adopt a "get on board or shut up" 
attitude, or insinuate that those who didn't buy into the 
whole National Agenda were somehow undemocratic. 
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PARLIAMENT GEARS UP FOR A FIGHT 
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11.  (C) Although the National Agenda has yet to be launched 
publicly, traditionalist forces in parliament are already 
bracing for a fight.  According to sources in the palace and 
on the commission, both Zeid Rifai, President of the Senate, 
and Abdul Hadi Majali, Speaker of the Chamber of Deputies, 
are rallying opposition against recommendations - 
particularly on electoral reform - that may threaten 
entrenched parliamentary interests.  In a recent discussion 
with Charge, Rifai disparaged the National Agenda process. 
Both Rifai and Majali have also backed publicly - reportedly 
for purely personal, rather than ideological, reasons - the 
Jordan Press Association (JPA) in rejecting a leaked Agenda 
recommendation to repeal the law the requires journalists to 
be members of the JPA (septel). 
 
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COMMENT 
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12.  (C) Internal strife within the National Agenda 
commission, and the challenges of marketing the Agenda to a 
skeptical public, should not take away from the GOJ's 
significant accomplishment in developing a comprehensive and 
measurable reform strategy.  Given the diverse nature of the 
commission members, sharp debate and differing opinions were 
to be expected, if not encouraged.  The fact that consensus 
was reached on all but one recommendation in all eight 
subject areas - including controversial topics such as the 
tax system and political parties (ref B) - is also 
noteworthy.  Still, the adoption of meaningful electoral 
reform will remain the litmus test for Jordanian reform 
efforts in the eyes of many political observers, and it is 
here that the GOJ faces its greatest challenge.  Growing 
evidence indicates that despite the government's best 
efforts, MPs will very likely reject legislation to make 
parliament substantially more representative of the 
population, leaving the King in a difficult jam as he tries 
to implement his vision for political reform. 
HALE