US embassy cable - 05ASUNCION1248

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ASUNCION 001248 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/20/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, PINR, PA 
SUBJECT: PARAGUAY: PRESIDENTIAL REELECTION HURDLES HIGH BUT 
NOT INSURMOUNTABLE 
 
REF: ASUNCION 1202 
 
Classified By: POLOFF Sterling Tilley, reason 1.4(b) and (d). 
 
1. (U) SUMMARY: For several months, there has been 
speculation that supporters of President Duarte would seek 
modifications to the Constitution that would allow Duarte to 
run for reelection.  Amending the Constitution would require 
that Article 229 of the Constitution be changed.  The process 
for making this change requires several steps including 
initiating the request, winning Congressional support, 
electing representatives to a Constituent Assembly and 
holding a Constitutional Convention.  Prospects for amending 
the Constitution to allow the President to run for reelection 
are presently long but hardly insurmountable. 
 
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Changing the Constitution 
------------------------- 
 
2. (U) According to Paraguay's Constitution, the Constitution 
can only be changed after 10 years of its promulgation, which 
was in 1992.  There are three ways a change in the 
Constitution process can begin: 1) the President may make a 
proposal for change; 2) 1/4 of the members of either Chamber 
of Congress can make a request; or 3) 30,000 voters with a 
signed petition can make the request.  Then, the request must 
be approved by a vote of 2/3 of the total members of each 
Chamber of Congress.  At that point, preparations can begin 
to create a Constituent Assembly for the purpose of holding a 
Constitutional Convention. 
 
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The Constituent Assembly 
------------------------ 
 
3. (U) The election of members of the Constituent Assembly 
must be held within 180 days after the Congress approves a 
motion to amend the Constitution.  The various parties would 
submit lists of names of candidates for the Constituent 
Assembly and the general population would then vote for those 
individuals of their choice.  The number of members cannot 
exceed the number of congresspersons from both Chambers of 
Congress (45 Senate and 80 Deputies).  The members of the 
assembly must include Paraguayans from all economic and 
social strata, including politicians, professionals, farmers, 
business owners, etc.  All of those elected must meet the 
criteria for being a member of Congress, which require simply 
the person be at least 25 years of age and a native 
Paraguayan. 
 
4. (U) A Constituent Assembly would actually assume 
responsibility for writing the law that would change Article 
229, which outlines the requirements and duties of the 
presidency.  (NOTE: In the case of reelection, it would only 
have to take out the phrase prohibiting reelection and write 
a sentence allowing reelection.  End Note.)  In order for the 
measure to pass, 2/3 of the Constituent Assembly must vote in 
favor of the amendment.  The Constitution stipulates that no 
amendments can be made in the process within 6 months of an 
election. 
 
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Prospects for a Constitutional Convention 
----------------------------------------- 
 
5. (U) Amending the Constitution to allow for reelection will 
be difficult but not impossible to achieve.  An August poll 
revealed that 50 percent of the population is against 
modifying the Constitution to allow for reelection, while 32 
percent support the reform and another 18 percent have no 
opinion.   But winning popular support is not a direct 
factor.  Rather, winning the support of 2/3 of the members of 
each house of Congress will prove the key.  Presently, the 
governing Colorados enjoy a thin majority in the House of 
Deputies; they just lost their thin majority in the Senate. 
This places them short of the votes they need to approve 
convening of a Constituent Assembly; gaining the support of 
opposition parties will prove pivotal. 
 
6.  (C)  Blas Llano, the leader of the opposition Authentic 
Radical Liberal Party (PLRA), has said that the Liberals 
would not support amending the Constitution without promises 
allowing for 1) a second round in a presidential election 
between the two top vote getters if no one acquires a 
majority (NOTE: a key reform, since Duarte won only 37 
percent of the vote, possibly owing his election to the lack 
of a second round.); and, 2) for a provision that stipulates 
expatriates abroad can vote.  Senate Liberal Party Leader 
Armando Espinola, however, has argued against amending the 
constitution even if the Colorados made these concessions. He 
does not believe these provisions favor the Liberal Party's 
prospects for winning elections; he is more focused on 
building an electoral coalition. (reftel). 
 
7.  (C)  The Colorado Party is competing with the Liberals in 
actively courting the Union of Ethical Citizens Party 
(UNACE), led by imprisoned coup plotter Lino Oviedo. 
Practically all members of UNACE were formerly members of the 
Colorado Party before breaking off to create their own party 
in 2002.  A number of UNACE reps have returned to the 
Colorado Party in recent months.  Thinking strategically, 
Espinola recently told the Ambassador that he was concerned a 
decision by UNACE to align itself with the Colorados would 
give the Colorados the votes they need in the Senate to amend 
the constitution to allow for reelection of the president. 
Of course, it is hard to believe the Colorados would grant 
Oviedo his ultimate objective which is the right to 
participate in the 2008 presidential elections.  The 
opposition Beloved Fatherland Party (PPQ) has consistently 
come out against changing the constitution to allow for 
reelection. (reftel). 
 
8. (C) COMMENT: Duarte's bid to amend the Constitution hinges 
on gaining the support of 2/3 of the representatives in each 
house of Congress.  Currently, the numbers are not there. 
But the game is far from over.  The Colorados have a long and 
proven track record of negotiating what they want from the 
opposition in exchange for other economic or political 
benefits.  In the past, the Liberals have proven they can be 
bought off.  UNACE remains focused on gaining the freedom of 
its imprisoned leader Lino Oviedo.  If acceptable deals could 
be struck, the Colorados could acquire the votes.  For now, 
however, Duarte is focused on consolidating power within the 
Colorado Party as he seeks election as Colorado Party 
President for internal party elections tentatively scheduled 
for February.  It is unlikely a bid to change the 
Constitution to allow for reelection as president of the 
country will receive much consideration until that race is 
safely behind him. As party chief, however, Duarte would be 
well placed to select his successor as Colorado candidate 
should reelection not be possible.  End Comment. 
KEANE