US embassy cable - 05WARSAW3557

UNCLAS WARSAW 003557 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PL, Polish Elections 
SUBJECT: TUSK STILL LEADS IN TIGHTENING PRESIDENTIAL RACE 
 
REF: WARSAW 3519 AND PREVIOUS 
 
1.  (U) Summary:  Civic Platform (PO) candidate Donald Tusk 
remains the odds-on favorite to replace Aleksander 
Kwasniewski as Poland's next President, although the race 
with his principal rival, Law and Justice (PiS) candidate 
Lech Kaczynski is tightening in the final days before the 
October 9 election.  Presidential campaigning and ongoing 
political pot shots between the two parties are not 
precluding negotiations between the two parties who are 
expected to form a center-right coalition government. 
Kaczynski benefits from the open support of the Solidarity 
trade union as well as ultra right-wing Catholic Radio 
Maryja.  It is unlikely that Tusk will win an outright 
majority in the first round, which will force a run-off on 
October 23.   End Summary. 
 
2.  (U) Donald Tusk, PO's presidential hopeful, is 
maintaining his lead over Warsaw mayor and PiS candidate, 
Lech Kaczynski, although some polls indicate his lead is 
dwindling.  Daily polls released to the press consistently 
show Tusk on top, although his lead varies from three to 
eleven points.  PO was once hopeful that Tusk could win an 
outright majority in the first round of balloting on October 
9, but reflecting a more sober attitude after PO failed to 
win the parliamentary elections on September 25, most expect 
a run-off between Tusk and Kaczynski on October 23. 
 
3.  (U) Kaczynski's chances may improve with the active 
support of the Solidarity trade union and the open 
endorsement of Radio Maryja, a right-wing Catholic radio 
station that normally supports the League of Polish Families 
(LPR).  LPR Presidential candidate Maciej Giertych dropped 
out of the presidential race on October 4, without formally 
endorsing Kaczynski.  Giertych urged other minor candidates 
to drop out of the race so that a second round could be 
avoided, but so far no one has heeded his advice. 
 
4.  (U) Kaczynski continues to hammer away at Tusk with the 
same litany of criticism that proved decisive in securing 
PiS's come-from-behind victory, namely that Tusk is 
interested foremost in economic policies that will hurt the 
average Pole, making Poland "a republic for the rich."  Tusk 
has characterized Kaczynski as "too impulsive" and lacking 
openness in conducting international relations.  Tusk also 
said that PiS has "less trust in the external world" and 
"radical inclinations," warning that PiS should not have both 
of the top jobs.  Both Tusk and Kaczynski thus have neatly 
flipped their positions from several weeks ago, when the 
roles were reversed and it looked as though PO would dominate 
both parliamentary and presidential elections. 
 
-------------------------------------------- 
Coalition Negotiations Move Forward Fitfully 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
5.  (U) Preoccupation with presidential politics have slowed 
but not stopped coalition negotiations altogether.  PiS 
candidate for prime minister, Kazimierz Marcinkiewicz, met 
yesterday with PO candidate for deputy prime minister, Jan 
Rokita.  Rokita produced a letter containing a five-point 
plan for PO's approach to the coalition, all quite broad and 
short on detail.  PO has called for the streamlining of 
government by merging two ministries, thereby reducing the 
cabinet from 14 to 12 ministries.  Marcinkiewicz said the PO 
letter constituted the basis for talks between the parties 
for establishing the government's program. 
 
6.  (SBU) PO's Jacek Saryusz-Wolski remains widely expected 
to be named foreign minister; one senior MFA official 
reported that Saryusz-Wolski has the job locked up. 
Bronislaw Komorowski (PO), meanwhile, once the front-runner 
for defense minister, is now being mentioned as a possible 
Marshal (speaker) of the Sejm.  Were Komorowski to become 
speaker, that would open up the defense slot, perhaps even 
for a PiS candidate (among those names in play from PiS are 
Radek Sikorski and Przemyslaw Gosiewski). 
Ashe