US embassy cable - 02ABUJA3017

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 003017 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/05/2012 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, KISL, PTER, NI 
SUBJECT:  NIGERIA: GOMBE STATE GOVERNOR'S VIEWS ON 
NIGERIAN POLITICS AND THE U.S. 
 
REF:  ABUJA 03014 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR HOWARD F. JETER FOR REASON 
1.5 (B). 
 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY: On October 6, Ambassador Jeter and 
Economic Officer Hricik met with Gombe State Governor 
Hashidu and Deputy Governor Lidani to discuss Nigerian 
politics and Northern views on the U.S.  The Governor 
said the National Assembly's attempt to impeach 
President Obasanjo sent the wrong message to the 
international community, but blamed Obasanjo for 
failing to work well with legislators.  The 
impeachment process was intended to weaken Obasanjo to 
where he fails to win the PDP nomination, said the 
Governor.  Hashidu thought former Head of State 
Babaginda would not run for the Presidency if Obasanjo 
were a candidate, but believed Vice President Atiku 
would run.  More ominously, the Governor added that 
political instability could possibly open a door for 
military intervention.  Hashidu said that Northern 
Nigerians largely misunderstand the US-led global war 
on terrorism, and that poverty is the main cause for 
the attraction of some Nigerians to radical Islam. 
END SUMMARY 
 
 
 
 
--------------------------------------- 
THE DOWNSIDE OF THE IMPEACHMENT PROCESS 
--------------------------------------- 
 
 
2. (C) During an October 6 visit to Gombe State, 
Ambassador Jeter, accompanied by Econoff met with 
Gombe State Governor Abubakar Habu Hashidu and Deputy 
Governor Joshua Lidani to discuss Nigerian politics 
and views on the U.S.  Responding to the Ambassador's 
question on the ongoing impeachment drive, Hashidu 
said that the National Assembly had the right to 
impeach the President; however the impeachment process 
now underway is counterproductive.  It is splintering 
the country and sending the wrong message to the 
international community. 
 
 
------------------ 
WEAKENING OBASANJO 
------------------ 
 
 
3.  (C) Hashidu stated that most Senators, who 
supported impeachment, were angry because Obasanjo did 
not release approximately USD 3.8 million for each 
Senatorial district's constituency projects.  He added 
that Obasanjo had infuriated many National Assembly 
members, by calling them "jokers."  Hashidu said that 
Northern governors, in the coming months, will attempt 
to act as a bridge between the President and the 
National Assembly.  The Governor then remarked that 
the impeachment threat eventually will be dropped (he 
was right), but only after the President is further 
weakened to the extent that he is denied the PDP 
renomination.  When the Ambassador stated that the 
National Assembly has not passed important bills such 
as telecommunications and AGOA, the Governor responded 
that the National Assembly was more interested in 
"making money" than in governance. 
 
 
--------- 
BABAGINDA 
--------- 
 
 
4.  (C) Responding to the Ambassador's question, 
Hashidu said that he did not know if Babangida was 
supporting the impeachment drive (Hashidu served as 
Minister of Agriculture and Water during Babangida's 
rule (1988-1993)).  He also stated that he was 
uncertain if IBB would run for President in 2003. 
Hashidu agreed with an assessment that IBB would not 
run, if Obasanjo remained a candidate.  Asked by the 
Ambassador whether Vice President Atiku will stand for 
the Presidency, the Governor said it was likely. 
 
 
------------------------- 
NIGERIA'S LEARNING CURVE 
------------------------- 
 
 
5.  (C) The Ambassador told the Governor that the USG 
is not interested in political personalities but 
wanted to see a fair process.  He added that Nigerians 
must decide who they want in public office.  Asserting 
that growing political unrest was a sign of possible 
instability, Hashidu also added that this is a 
learning time for the country. Nigeria will continue 
to refine its democracy and maybe after 12 years the 
process will improve, he said.  The Ambassador then 
remarked that in 1999, many highly qualified, able 
Nigerians chose not to run for public office, fearing 
that the fledgling democracy would not last.  The 
Ambassador asked whether the new crop of candidates in 
2003 would be better?  The Governor said that in a 
national campaign you need money; the more you have 
the better you can contest.  National Assembly members 
are making money and are better equipped to run for 
office than more qualified, but less affluent 
prospective candidates. 
 
 
-------------------- 
PITFALLS FOR NIGERIA 
-------------------- 
 
 
6.  (C) Hashidu said many Obasanjo supporters now feel 
victimized by the impeachment process, and the 
resulting political uncertainty was being watched 
closely by some in the military. The Ambassador 
interjected that in the past this could have been a 
likely time for the military to step-in; however, our 
reading was this was not now the case.  The Ambassador 
added that the USG had spent a lot of effort and 
resources working with senior and middle-level 
officers, but agreed with the Governor that lower 
ranking officers' motivations are difficult to know. 
Hashidu expressed fears that a military intervention 
could bring to power relatively young officers, "If we 
are not lucky, they will wipe us (ruling elite) all 
out.We cannot dig our own graves."  Hashidu said that 
Nigeria was fortunate that many of those who could 
have staged a coup have been hopefully flushed out of 
the military by the Obasanjo Government.  However, 
Hashidu remarked that U.S. support for Pakistan's 
President Musharraf, still gave some in the military 
hope. "If America will support Musharraf, maybe 
they'll do it for us (military ruler)," he added.  The 
Ambassador remarked that the political realities in 
Pakistan and Nigeria were not the same. 
 
 
------------------------- 
NORTHERN VIEW ON THE U.S. 
------------------------- 
 
 
7.  (C) The Ambassador asked Hashidu how Northern and 
Northeastern Nigerian Muslims perceive the United 
States in the post-9/11 era?  The Governor said that 
radical Islamic groups in Nigeria view the U.S. as 
fighting a war against Islam; the average Northern 
Muslim is often misinformed and views the U.S. as over 
reacting, even if in self-defense. Though the vast 
majority of North and Northeast Muslims are Sunni, 
there are very small radical factions of Shiite and 
extremist Sunni Muslims, who are anti-American, he 
added.  Hashidu then redirected the conversation, 
saying he thought Saudi Arabia should keep quiet about 
the US-led fight against terrorism and possible 
conflict with Iraq.  Hashidu said, the ruling-elite in 
Saudi Arabia maintain power through U.S. and UK 
support.  The Ambassador then asked whether there were 
Saudis, Iraqis or Iranians working through non- 
governmental organizations in Nigeria?  The Governor 
said he was not aware of any, but he could not vouch 
for what is happening in Kano or other Northern 
states. Hashidu added that, due to poverty, millions 
of Nigerians are in Libya, Saudi Arabia, and Sudan, 
often working in deplorable conditions.  The Governor 
ended by saying poverty was the key ingredient for 
radical Islam's expansion in Nigeria and beyond. 
 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
 
8.  (C) The Governor was very relaxed, open and 
engaging during the 75-minute meeting. Hashidu, who 
maintained high-ranking Ministerial positions under 
both military and civilian rule, now portrays himself 
as a populist democrat.  A political strategist, 
Hashidu is among Northern Nigeria's most politically 
influential governors. Hashidu was delighted with the 
Ambassador's visit to Gombe and pulled out all the 
stops, including a State Dinner, a tour of State 
development projects (reftel), and a meeting with the 
State Executive Council.  The Governor has made a 
point of calling a meeting with the Ambassador during 
Hashidu's subsequent visits to Abuja.  This kind of 
personal engagement is absolutely essential to winning 
the hears and minds in Nigeria's Islamic North.  END 
COMMENT 
 
 
ANDREWS