US embassy cable - 05CAIRO7692

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CAIRO 007692 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC STAFF FOR ABRAMS/POUNDS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/28/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, KDEM, ETRD, EG 
SUBJECT: NEA PDAS CHENEY'S SEPTEMBER 27-29 VISIT TO CAIRO - 
MEETING WITH PRIME MINISTER NAZIF 
 
Classified by Charge Stuart Jones for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
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Summary 
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1.  (C) Prime Minister Nazif said that he hoped domestic 
election observers would be permitted during upcoming 
parliamentary elections but was pessimistic about 
international observers.  He agreed that other improvements 
to the election process, like transparent ballot boxes and 
greater voter education, would be worth pursuing.  Nazif 
lamented the sorry state of Egypt's opposition parties and 
suggested upcoming parliamentary elections might result in 
greater, not less, NDP dominance of the People's Assembly. 
Nazif expressed concern that delay in announcing the start 
of U.S.-Egypt FTA negotiations undermined the U.S. image in 
Egypt and added that the GOE was anxious for an 
announcement on expansion of QIZ's in Egypt.  End summary. 
 
2.  (C) NEA PDAS Elizabeth Cheney met September 28 with 
Prime Minister Ahmed Nazif.  Also sitting in on the 
Egyptian side were Foreign Trade and Industry Minister 
Rachid Rachid and Nazif's Chef de Cabinet, Dr. Sami Saad 
Zaghloul.  PDAS Cheney was accompanied by NEA DAS Scott 
Carpenter, Charge, and ECPO Counselor (notetaker). 
 
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Nazif Lauds Presidential Poll 
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3.  (C) The Prime Minister opened the meeting by expressing 
satisfaction with the conduct of the September 7 
presidential election and the neutral role played by the 
GOE.  Nazif stressed that the September 7 poll should serve 
as a precedent not only for the next presidential election 
in five years but also for the parliamentary elections 
taking place in two months.  Nazif highlighted: 
-- "very good success" in ensuring that government agencies 
and officials, which behaved as agents of the ruling 
National Democratic Party (NDP) in prior elections, 
remained non-partisan, 
-- the restrained approach of police and other security 
officials on election day itself, also a departure from 
past practice, and 
-- the Ministry of Information's success in ensuring 
balanced coverage, particularly television coverage, of all 
the candidates. 
 
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Observers at the Parliamentary Election 
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4.  (C) Despite the successes, Nazif acknowledged that 
there was much the GOE could fix before the parliamentary 
elections.  He pointed to GOE "flip-flopping" on election 
observers followed by a last-minute decision to admit them 
to polling stations. While the parliamentary election 
commission is independent, it serves a more administrative 
function, is headed by the Minister of Justice and includes 
a number of executive branch officials, so the GOE might 
have "more leeway" to push for some process improvements. 
He encouraged the Embassy to present these improvements to 
the Ministry of Justice.  Nazif said that Egyptian NGOs 
would be allowed to enter polling stations but was more 
pessimistic regarding international monitors:  "I cannot 
promise international monitoring, but I can promise 
monitoring." 
 
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Building on Success 
------------------- 
 
5.  (C) PDAS Cheney stressed that the USG considered it 
very important for the parliamentary elections to be open 
to international observers.  It was also important, she 
said, that the GOE build on the positive aspects of the 
September 7 vote to make the parliamentary elections more 
credible.  There were a number of simple steps - 
transparent ballot boxes, proper organization and 
transparency of voter lists, voter education, training for 
judges - that would significantly increase the credibility 
of the parliamentary vote. The USG was willing to 
provide technical assistance in these areas, including 
through organizations such as the UN.   She said she and DAS 
Carpenter would be using their meetings over the next few 
days to generate concrete ideas for next steps and USG 
assistance.  She said she looked forward to sharing these 
ideas with the PM and other key members of the GOE in the 
coming weeks. 
 
6.  (C) Nazif agreed that technical assistance provided 
through the U.N. would be more palatable than assistance 
directly from the U.S.  (Note:  when he said this, Rachid 
shook his head no).  Nazif acknowledged the problem with 
voter lists, but suggested it was a problem that could only 
be fixed over time, not quickly enough for the 
parliamentary election.  He called transparent ballot boxes 
"a tricky issue."  He said that insistence on transparent 
boxes would be seen as a slap to the Ministry of Interior's 
integrity.  However, Nazif noted, the Ministry had always 
cited cost as an obstacle to use of transparent boxes, so 
if outside funding could be found perhaps the Ministry 
would lose one of its objections. 
 
7.  (C) The Prime Minister proposed that voter education be 
handled by the Ministry of Information rather than the 
electoral commission.  He said that, for the presidential 
election, the Ministry had launched a very impressive and 
non-partisan campaign encouraging voters to turn out. 
Regarding training for the judicial officials who would 
administer the voting, Nazif suggested that such training 
could be handled through the Judges Training Center.  He 
noted that the judges were accustomed to getting training 
there, and would not be offended by the need for 
election-specific instruction if it were handled correctly. 
Minister Rachid said that officials 
had received training in advance of the presidential 
election and would receive further training before the 
parliamentary election. 
 
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Keeping Mubarak's Promises 
-------------------------- 
 
8.  (C) Nazif said that the GOE needed to work to fulfill 
the promises President Mubarak made during the presidential 
election campaign, adding that the legal and institutional 
changes Mubarak called for would take two more People's 
Assembly sessions (i.e., two more years) to carry out. 
Nazif noted that Mubarak had called for distribution of 
power between the president and the cabinet as well as 
between the executive branch and the legislature.  Mubarak 
promised to replace the emergency law with anti-terrorism 
legisation and increase the representation of women in 
government.  Mubarak also called for greater balance among 
political parties in parliament. 
 
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Egypt's Weak Parties 
-------------------- 
 
9.  (C) On the latter point, Nazif said that the NDP's 
decades-long dominance of Egyptian politics would be 
difficult to undo.  He noted that virtually all those who 
aspire to parliamentary seats pursue the NDP's backing. 
Some of those that fail to get it run successfully as 
independents and then join the NDP once in office.  "This 
is still a country focussed around the NDP," he said. 
Nazif was frustrated by the Wafd Party's poor performance 
during the presidential election campaign.  This diminished 
his hopes that the Wafd could ever become a viable 
alternative, though he acknowledged that it was the GOE 
that had weakened the Wafd and other opposition parties 
over the past decades.  He expressed hope that "good 
people" in the second and third tier of the Wafd leadership 
might someday revive the party.  Nazif was equally 
frustrated by Ghad Party leader Ayman Nour's success in the 
presidential campaign, dismissing him as "childish."  Nazif 
admitted that the GOE had only itself to blame for Nour's 
success, as his trial on forgery charges had significantly 
raised his profile.  "We made a hero of him," Nazif 
lamented. 
 
10.  (C) Nazif said that the opposition parties, poorly led 
and short of funds, would be able to field candidates in 
the upcoming parliamentary elections in no more than 20-25 
percent of constituencies.  Rachid pointed out that, as a 
result of its experience with the presidential election, 
the NDP was more organized and effective than it had ever 
been and may find itself after the elections with an even 
more overwhelming grip on parliament.  Egypt needs a party 
list rather than a constituency-based system, Nazif 
observed, if it is to expand opposition representation in 
parliament. 
 
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FTA Concerns 
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11.  (C) Nazif closed the meeting by stressing that "Egypt 
is a country the U.S. can depend on."  The two countries 
see eye-to-eye on the big issues of peace, regional 
stability, and economic development.  Recalling his meeting 
two days earlier with Under Secretary Hughes, Nazif 
stressed that improving Arabs' perceptions of the U.S. was 
in the GOE's interest as well as the U.S. interest.  One 
step that Nazif argued would enhance the U.S. image in 
Egypt is the launch of FTA negotiations and both Nazif and 
Rachid expressed concern at what they perceived as U.S. 
backsliding.  Nazif said that President Bush had told him 
that the U.S. would be ready for Egypt FTA negotiations 
once the Central America FTA was through Congress.  Rachid 
noted that negotiations would have to start soon if they 
were to be completed before the expiration of Trade 
Promotion Authority in 2007.  Nazif also urged action on 
expanding the QIZ's, which he hoped was underway. 
 
12.  (U) PDAS Cheney cleared this message. 
 
 
RICCIARDONE