US embassy cable - 05NAIROBI4143

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 004143 
 
SIPDIS 
 
LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/03/2025 
TAGS: PGOV, ECON, PREL, KDEM, KE, Referendum 
SUBJECT: KENYAN GOVERNMENT OFFERS CARROTS FOR BANANAS 
 
REF: NAIROBI 4128 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Michael J. Fitzpatrick.  Reasons 1.4 
 (b,d) 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY: Ahead of Kenya's November 21 constitutional 
referendum, the Government has begun offering various 
constituency groups a variety of enticements, implicitly to 
win their "Yes" or banana, vote.  The offers so far include a 
number of controversial land ownership concessions, pay 
increases for local officials, and development projects.  The 
deals have not necessarily achieved the desired effect, with 
the Maasai notably not reversing their "no" stand despite 
regaining control of Amboseli National Park.  The patronage 
offers have the "No" (or orange) campaigners crying foul and 
highlight the government's willingness to use any resources 
at its disposal to pursue its pro-draft constitution agenda. 
END SUMMARY. 
 
"Referendum Giveaway" 
--------------------- 
 
2.  (U) On September 29, the Kenyan Government announced its 
plan to designate Amboseli National Park as a national 
reserve, thus localizing its administration and directing the 
sanctuary's revenues into the immediate (mostly Maasai) 
community.  (NOTE:  Amboseli is one of Kenya's most revered 
parks, where all of "the Big Five" game animals can be found 
against the backdrop of Tanzania's Mt. Kilimanjaro.)  The 
announcement came days before the largest-ever Maasai 
gathering at Narok (reftel), during which the Suswa 
Declaration formalized the community's opposition to the 
draft constitution.  The Maasai are concerned that the 
proposed constitution, if enacted, will place all national 
parks and reserves in government hands, making the Amboseli 
offer an empty one.  An editorial in "The Nation" was sharply 
critical of the GOK's Amboseli plan, calling it "a desperate 
attempt to bribe the Maasai." The government, however, denies 
it is anything of the sort. 
 
3.  (U) In another land offer, President Kibaki announced 
October 3 that the thousands of (mostly Kalenjin or Kipsigis) 
residents of the protected Mau Forest in Narok -- and who 
were forcibly evicted in January -- would now be allowed to 
return to their farms or otherwise be resettled on public 
lands in the Forest. No timeframe, however, was specified for 
implementation.  Community leaders charged the govenrment was 
attempting to "blackmail" voters with promises related to the 
ever-sensitive land issues.  Additionally, the government 
abruptly revoked a regulation prohibiting landowners from 
dividing their plots into parcels smaller than one hectare 
(two and one half acres), an important concession to the 
large number of Kenyans who distribute their land among sons. 
 
 
Open Season on Government Generosity 
------------------------------------ 
 
4.  (U) In what may be interpreted as an another attempt to 
woo Maasai voters to the "Yes" side, the GOK released 13 
herders who had been in custody for over a year for allegedly 
demonstrating against settler ranches on Maasai land.  More 
transparently, on October 3, the government announced pay 
raises for hundreds of local government officials.  Minister 
for Local Government Musikari Kombo reportedly claimed that 
the salary increase was in the works before the referendum 
process, but a representative of the officials was quoted as 
having said that "we are still orange (i.e., "No") supporters 
until our demands are met." 
 
5.  (U) The government has also recently announced a number 
of ambitious development plans, including a pledge of 880 
million Kenyan shillings (approximately USD 12 billion) for 
slum improvement (over the next 15 years).  Additionally, 
during his trip to Isiolo in late September, President Kibaki 
offered the district six new schools, a livestock purchase 
program, and renovation of the local airport. 
 
Comment: More Than Free Fruit 
----------------------------- 
 
6.  (C) Despite the government's claim of merely coincidental 
timing, its use of enticements to win "Yes" votes is rather 
transparent.  The Maasai, for example, have seen through this 
political ploy.  Moreover, the GOK has set an expensive, and 
perhaps unsustainable, precedent that has signaled to some 
observers its desperation to win approval for the Wako draft 
constitution.  While the use of official cars and helicopters 
for campaigning is perhaps the most  obvious exploitation of 
public resources for referendum campaigning, it is perhaps 
not the most significant.  By doling out major financial 
favors, the government is relying on its fiscal might to 
bring in banana votes.  One group that has yet to see any 
benefit to opposing the draft is teachers.  But with seven 
weeks to go, there is still time. 
BELLAMY