US embassy cable - 05ALMATY3451

C O N F I D E N T I A L  ALMATY 003451 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/04/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, KZ, 2005 Election, POLITICAL 
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: A/S FRIED,S MEETINGS WITH KAZAKHSTANI 
OPPOSITION PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES 
 
 
Classified By: Ambassador John Ordway, reasons 1.4 (B) and (D). 
 
1. (C) Summary:  During meetings with Kazakhstani opposition 
presidential candidates, A/S Fried heard several common 
themes about Kazakhstan's differences from its neighboring 
countries, the importance of strengthening its western 
orientation, the need for political reform, and the toll that 
corruption -- including at the highest levels -- takes on the 
country.  Ak Zhol leader Alikhan Baimenov came across as a 
man with a strong desire to help bring about real change in 
Kazakhstan, and bitter at not being chosen as the unified 
opposition candidate.  For a Just Kazakhstan leader 
Zharmakhan Tuyakbay appeared confident in his support among 
the electorate and focused on a clear series of steps to 
bring about political reform. End summary. 
 
2. (SBU) In separate meetings in Almaty on October 29, EUR 
A/S Daniel Fried spoke with presidential candidates Alikhan 
Baimenov (Ak Zhol) and Zharmakhan Tuyakbay (For a Just 
Kazakhstan).  Baimenov was accompanied by Burikhan 
Nurmukhamedov, and Tuyakbay was accompanied by Tolegen 
Zhukeyev.  NSC Director David Merkel, DASD Jim MacDougall, SA 
DAS John Gastright, Ambassador, DCM, POEC chief (notetaker), 
and POL FSN (interpreter) also took part in the meetings. 
 
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Baimenov: Running to Draw Votes away from Nazarbayev 
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3. (SBU) Baimenov started off with a lengthy discourse on 
Kazakhstan's general orientation and the regional context. 
He stressed the importance of maintaining a Western 
orientation, noting that Kazakhstan is a member not only of 
the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) but also the 
OSCE.  Baimenov noted that Kazakhstan differs in many 
important ways from its southern neighbors, including bearing 
"less burden of history" and having a higher level of 
education, a greater degree of openness, and a more diverse 
population. 
 
4. (C) Turning to politics, Baimenov told A/S Fried that he 
and others were trying to persuade President Nazarbayev to 
proceed with democratization.  He does not deny the important 
economic achievements under Nazarbayev's leadership, but sees 
a fundamental contradiction between the government's stated 
goal of a market economy and the current political system. 
According to Baimenov, Nazarbayev understands that this 
contradiction may eventually lead to a dead end.  Nazarbayev 
is experiencing an internal struggle between the desire to be 
remembered favorably by history and the knowledge that 
greater democratization will reveal his and his associates' 
"personal problems" stemming from the privatization period. 
 
5. (C) Baimenov described Kazakhstani society as divided into 
three main groups politically.  The first group, which 
supports Nazarbayev, includes ethnic Kazakhs who see change 
as a potential threat to independence, ethnic minorities who 
see Nazarbayev as a guarantor of stability and their rights, 
and owners of illegally privatized large industrial 
enterprises who work against democratization.  (Note: 
Baimenov was undoubtedly referring to Aleksandr Mashkevich 
and his associates. End note.)  There is a second group who 
oppose all political leaders.  The third group is made up of 
people who want democratization if there is a reasonable 
alternative to the current power that would not lead to 
destabilization.  Baimenov said that this last group was Ak 
Zhol's electoral base; if his party did not exist, they would 
vote for the incumbent. 
 
6. (C) The December 4 presidential elections will not be 
fair, Baimenov predicted.  He is concerned about what will 
happen afterwards if there are falsifications, and about the 
negative impact on the country's development.  In response to 
A/S Fried's question about the potential for a Karimov-style 
crackdown, Baimenov said he did not believe that Nazarbayev 
would act "on that scale."  The readiness and resources 
exist, however, and it is possible that those who advise 
"strong measures" might win out.  Baimenov said much will 
depend on the actions of akims (regional leaders) and what 
preventive measures they might take.  Baimenov predicted that 
in the event of unfair elections conflict could occur in 
Almaty "on a scale like Bishkek, not Kiev." 
 
7. (SBU) When asked about his political program, Baimenov 
underscored the need for urgent political reforms.  He 
planned to convene a constitutional council to revise the 
Constitution in accordance with the reforms he outlined 
during his party congress speech.  He would support a liberal 
 
economy, including WTO membership.  All state regulations 
should be transparent.  Baimenov also called for transparency 
in contracts, as it reduces future political risk, but noted 
that he was opposed to unilateral revision of existing deals. 
 He outlined a program to ensure fair relations between 
employers and workers and to promote SME development. 
Baimenov said he spoke to voters a great deal about the 
problem of corruption, but did not offer details.  Overall 
Turkey would be his model of development, as another Turkic, 
Muslim country wanting to move toward the West and democracy. 
 
 
8.  (SBU) Regarding relations with Russia, Baimenov said that 
he would stress that democratization did not threaten the 
Kazakhstan-Russia bilateral relationship.  A/S Fried told 
Baimenov that we stress to Russia that it is better for it to 
have stable democratic neighbors than dictators or failed 
states.  The U.S. is interested in supporting stability 
through economic and political reform; we do not see 
ourselves in competition with Russia in this region. 
Baimenov commented that if Russia openly supported 
Nazarbayev's candidacy, some parts of society would not be 
pleased. 
 
9.  (C) Noting that when he had met with NSD Director Merkel 
recently in Washington Baimenov had been weighing the 
personal cost of running for president, Merkel asked what had 
made him decide to run.  Baimenov explained that when he 
speaks with voters he focuses on his desire to help change 
the country for the better.  The practical reason was the 
fact that if he did not run, it would "ease the work" of the 
authorities.  Most of his Ak Zhol electoral base considered 
Tuyakbay and the leadership of For a Just Kazakhstan (FJK) 
too radical, and therefore would vote for Nazarbayev if 
Baimenov did not run.  Baimenov described his electorate as 
people who want change without revolution, such as teachers, 
doctors, young people, small business owners, and some older 
voters.  He commented bitterly that FJK had made two serious 
mistakes when it decided that its presidential candidate 
could not be from a party, and that it would work 
aggressively against any other potential candidate from the 
democratic camp. 
 
10. (SBU) A/S Fried told Baimenov that one of his main 
messages to the GOK would be the importance of fair elections 
and progress on democratization.  Baimenov concurred that 
forward movement is the most important thing:  "we don't 
compare ourselves with the West to gauge our progress; we 
compare the situation today with what it was yesterday and 
what it will be tomorrow."  He added that he was running for 
president with the full realization that life does not stop 
with the elections; his goal is to change society, not to 
replace one group of oligarchs with another. 
 
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Tuyakbay:  Running to Win 
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11. (C) Tuyakbay noted that, while Kazakhstan differs from 
the other countries of Central Asia in many ways, they are 
united by their leaders' strong desire to hold onto power. 
Kazakhstan is losing some of the gains made after 
independence as a result of efforts to preserve the current 
authoritarian regime.  Tuyakbay told A/S Fried that no branch 
of government is able to criticize the president, who is 
completely isolated and does what he wants.  Tuyakbay 
emphasized the level of corruption in the Nazarbayev family, 
including the theft of businesses and crooked privatizations. 
 He said the fact that a single person can not effectively 
manage an entire government system had lead to the corruption 
of the whole system.  All branches work to protect the status 
quo.  According to Tuyakbay, the people and the government 
exist independently of each other.  He maintained that people 
now feared to speak out. 
 
12. (SBU) Asked by A/S Fried what his program would be if he 
were elected president, Tuyakbay said he had no doubt that he 
would win -- "if not in December, then within two years." 
FJK has a clear political and economic program to improve 
governance.  The first step would be the adoption of a new 
Constitution to limit the powers of the president and create 
a real parliamentary- presidential system.  The president 
would be limited to a single five-year term, the government 
would be under the control of parliament, and regional 
executive bodies would be elected.  Tuyakbay highlighted the 
absence of an independent judiciary as the most pressing 
democratic deficit; he would have parliament provide 
financing directly to the judiciary to increase its 
 
independence.  He would also create a Constitutional Court. 
 
13. (SBU) On the economic front, Tuyakbay called for openness 
and transparency of contracts, tenders, and all other 
contacts between government officials and business.  Tuyakbay 
said that while there would be no revision of existing energy 
contracts, new contracts would include additional 
transparency measures and equal rights for all parties.  If 
elected, he would review the privatizations of large 
metallurgical and other firms and re-privatize at market 
prices those that were found to have been sold off illegally. 
 According to Tuyakbay, many metallurgical firms ended up in 
the hands of the Nazarbayev family or oligarchs such as 
Shodiyev and Ibragimov.  They would be eligible to bid when 
the firms were auctioned off.  Tuyakbay highlighted 
diversification of the economy and the development of 
industry as pressing economic goals; widespread corruption is 
the biggest obstacle to both. 
 
14. (C)  Tuyakbay somewhat laughingly described his electoral 
base as "everyone not in Nazarbayev's immediate circle."  He 
claimed that a big part of society was dissatisfied with the 
status quo.  FJK looked to the middle class for most of its 
support, as they suffer the most from corruption.  Tuyakbay 
claimed that FJK's polls showed he would receive 77-78% in 
fair election.  (Comment:  This claim is simply not credible. 
End Comment)  A/S Fried noted that he understood Tuyakbay 
was not as well known in the regions as he was in Almaty, and 
asked how he planned to increase his visibility.  Tuyakbay 
said that FJK's 250,000 members would be going door-to-door 
across the country to campaign for him.  The seven opposition 
newspapers were now printing 650,000 copies a week, 80% of 
which were making it to readers despite the authorities' 
attempts to confiscate them.  Access to television would be 
crucial, Tuyakbay added; as of right now he could not get any 
coverage on TV or radio, even negative.  The Nazarbayev 
family controls 90% of broadcast media.  Channel 31, although 
ostensibly independent, was controlled by Security Council 
chairman Utemuratov. 
 
15. (SBU) Zhukeyev predicted that Tuyakbay would benefit from 
very high support from ethnic Kazakhs, whose poverty rate is 
higher than the average.  He added that FJK's 
western-oriented foreign policy platform would appeal to a 
large number of voters who are not pleased by the current 
pro-Russian, pro-Chinese position.  (Comment:  Polling, 
including USG polling, suggests the opposite:  Russia is far 
more highly regarded by the populace than the U.S. or other 
western countries.) 
 
16. (C) A/S Fried told Tuyakbay that the U.S. was confident 
that authoritarianism would not win out in Central Asia.  We 
expected Karimov to be isolated.  President Nazarbayev still 
had the opportunity to leave a positive legacy as the leader 
who brought Kazakhstan to sovereignty and development.  The 
U.S. will encourage him to make the tough decisions to do 
this.  Tuyakbay responded by underscoring the need for as 
many international election observers as possible to ensure 
thorough coverage and to balance the "sympathetic" observers 
the GOK was actively recruiting. 
ORDWAY 
 
 
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