US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI4062

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 004062 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - ERIC 
BARBORIAK 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC, KMDR, KPAO, TW, Domestic Politics, Cross Strait Politics, Foreign Policy, Military Issues 
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: U.S. ARMS PROCUREMENTS 
 
1. Summary: Major Chinese-language Taipei dailies 
centered their coverage October 1-3 on Typhoon Longwang 
(that hit Taiwan Sunday); the bombings in Bali, 
Indonesia Saturday; Taiwan's year-end "3-in-1" 
elections; and President Chen's unexpected stopovers in 
Abu Dhabi and Bali.  The pro-unification "United Daily 
News" carried an exclusive news story on its second 
page October 3 topped with the headline: "The 
Deadlocked Arms Procurements May Be Resolved after the 
Year-end [3-in-1] Elections."  The sub-headline-added: 
"The KMT, Acting in Accordance with [the Results] of an 
Opinion Survey, Is Inclined to `Conditionally Allow 
Arms Procurements [Bill to Be Reviewed]' in December or 
the Next Legislative Yuan Session.  The Proposal Will 
Be Forwarded to Ma Ying-jeou for Final Decision." 
 
2. In terms of editorials and commentaries, Academia 
Sinica's Institute of History and Philosophy Researcher 
Hsu Cho-yun said in a commentary in the centrist, pro- 
status quo "China Times" that it is in Taiwan's best 
interest for "both sides of the Taiwan Strait [to] 
reconcile and join hands."  Following the people who 
are promoting the U.S. arms procurement deal, he 
maintains, would lead Taiwan to become "a scorched 
battlefield."  A commentary in the limited-circulation, 
conservative, pro-unification, English-language "China 
Post" said the arms deal will get through in the end, 
but the Taiwan's self-defense problem will remain. End 
summary. 
 
A) "Choices between Arms Procurements and Public 
Opinion" 
 
Hsu Cho-yun, research fellow at the Academia Sinica's 
Institute of History and Philosophy, commented in the 
centrist, pro-status quo "China Times" [circulation: 
400,000] (10/3): 
 
"A U.S. State Department official made strongly worded 
remarks recently with regard to Taiwan's [blocked] arms 
procurement bill.  In terms of basic courtesy in 
international relations, this medium-ranking official's 
remarks were really inappropriate. . 
 
"Taiwan's economy is already part of the global 
economic network, in which mainland China's economy 
plays a significant role.  To revive Taiwan's economy, 
the island's top priority is to work with Beijing in 
creating a win-win situation within a peaceful climate 
across the Taiwan Strait.  The worst scenario, however, 
will be that Taiwan relies on the United States as its 
sole supporter and exhausts all its resources to 
purchase armaments that it can hardly afford to buy in 
an attempt to confront China.  Washington's national 
policy states clearly that it wants to seek China's 
cooperation and it does not want to easily get into 
conflict with Beijing.  If Taiwan unilaterally and 
rashly believes in the persuasions of those arms-deal 
interest groups, deeming that the United States, in an 
attempt to contain China, will definitely try the best 
it can to help defend Taiwan should a war break out in 
the Taiwan Strait, . the island will turn itself into a 
scorched battlefield. . 
 
"Judged from the afore-mentioned conclusion, [we know 
that] the best way to save Taiwan is to maintain peace. 
If both sides of the Taiwan Strait can reconcile and 
join hands, the East Asian economic community can 
rapidly develop and become one of the three major rival 
forces in the world, standing balanced with North 
America and Europe. ." 
 
B) "Is U.S. Arms Deal No More Than a Political 
Football?" 
 
Joe Hung said in the conservative, pro-unification, 
English-language "China Post" [circulation: 30,000] 
(10/3): 
 
". Washington's patience is wearing thin.  What it 
considers obscurantism on the part of the opposition 
alliance of the Kuomintang (KMT) and the People First 
Party (PFP) has compelled a ranking Pentagon official 
to warn Taiwan against the delay in the arms 
procurement.  Edward Ross, director of the Defense 
Security Cooperation Agency, lamented the arms package 
has become a `political football' in Taipei and said: 
`We cannot help defend you, if you cannot defend 
yourself.  In the end, the U.S. ability to contribute 
to Taiwan's defense in a crisis is going to be measured 
against Taiwan's ability to resist, defend and survive 
based on its own capabilities.' 
 
"That's very blunt warning.  What in gist he said was 
if Taiwan does not buy the weapons and equipment, the 
United States will not be able to help it defend 
itself.  The truth is that the arms purchase is not a 
simple political football. . 
 
"The arms deal will get through in the end.  But the 
problem of self-defense remains.  Generals of admirals 
doubt their officers and men can effectively use all 
the sophisticated weapons and equipment in defense of 
Taiwan.  Morale is low.  Discipline is lax at best. 
Training is insufficient. . Can admirals trust the crew 
of a yet-to-be-purchased submarine with costly 
torpedoes, which, more likely than not, would miss 
their targets in combat? 
 
"What's the use of expensive, sophisticated weapons 
that cannot be put into effective use?  The last 
question strengthens the determination of war planners 
to reject any expensive arms purchase from the United 
States." 
 
PAAL