US embassy cable - 05MINSK1205

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MINSK 001205 
 
SIPDIS 
 
KIEV FOR USAID 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/03/15 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, PINR, BO 
SUBJECT: Opposition Chooses Single Candidate 
 
Refs: (A) Minsk 836, (B) Minsk 1099 
 
MINSK 00001205  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
Classified by Ambassador George Krol for Reasons 1.4 (B,D) 
 
1. (C) Summary: The 10+ coalition, by far Belarus' largest 
opposition group, held its Congress of Democratic Forces in 
Minsk October 1 and 2 and narrowly chose Aleksandr 
Milinkevich to be its single candidate to challenge 
President Lukashenko in the July 2006 elections.  This 
congress was the culmination of a selection process the 10+ 
began in June (reftels), and marked the official start of 
the 10+'s presidential campaign.  The process itself 
appeared democratic and well run, and most participants 
seemed pleased with Milinkevich's victory.  However, others 
agreed he would be a good president, in a normal democracy, 
but might not have what it takes to beat Lukashenko ("He's 
no Yeltsin!").  The 10+ also does not appear ready to begin 
immediately its campaign, and some pointed out other 
opposition candidates would likely announce themselves. 
End summary. 
 
2. (C) The 10+, which unites nearly all of Belarus pro- 
democracy political parties and a number of NGOs, had 
applied at a number of venues to hold the congress in 
Belarus.  After being denied from every one, they started 
planning the congress to be in Ukraine or Russia.  Against 
all expectations, Lukashenko surprisingly announced on 
September 8 the 10+ could hold its congress in Minsk (ref 
B).  Despite having less than a month to plan, the congress 
came off without any major problems.  In fact, the congress 
appeared to be very well planned and run.  The Right 
Alliance youth NGO even provided 40 of its members, armed 
with radios, to provide security to the event and the 
subsequent winner.  Vintsuk Vyachorka, head of the 
Belarusian Popular Front (BPF), told Econoff there had been 
several problems behind the scenes, but would not 
elaborate. 
 
 
The Participants 
---------------- 
 
3. (C) The Congress of Democratic Forces brought together 
813 pro-democracy delegates and a number of guests and 
observers from across Belarus and neighboring countries. 
Several Members of the European Parliament, from Slovakia, 
the Netherlands and Sweden, attended, as did a member of 
the Ukrainian parliament and an advisor to FM Tarasyuk, and 
representatives of Russia's Union of Right Forces (who 
offered 2,000 volunteers to help bring democracy to 
Belarus).  The Czech MFA sent a small delegation.  Although 
the European Commission did not send anyone to observe, 
Alistair Rabagliati, an EC official from the Moscow TACIS 
office who is dating a Belarusian and is friends with IRI's 
Belarus officer, came on his own.  He said even though he 
was not there in an official capacity he would write a 
report on the congress for Brussels.  Two MPs from Poland's 
Law and Justice Party, Filip Libicki and Norbert Napieraj, 
were denied entry to Belarus at the border.  The Congress 
also accredited 160 journalists, including many from 
Poland, Lithuania, Russia, Denmark and the Netherlands, as 
well as Belarusian state TV. 
 
 
Milinkevich Wins by a Hair 
-------------------------- 
 
4. (C) The 10+ coalition invited 839 delegates to attend. 
Several contacts reported that many delegates, namely 
schoolteachers, had been ordered to work on Saturday, 
forcing them to miss the first day.  The belief was the 
regime had tried to prevent them from attending. 
Regardless, most of these did arrive on Sunday, when 813 
delegates were present. 
 
5. (SBU) In his introductory speech former head of state 
Stanislav Shushkevich announced he would step down as a 
potential candidate, but support whomever wins, to great 
cheers from the crowd.  In the first round of voting 
Ratusha NGO leader Aleksandr Milinkevich received 383 
votes, United Civic Party head Anatoly Lebedko 263, and 
(pro-democracy) Communist Sergey Kalyakin 152, with 3 
ballots spoiled and 12 voting against all.  The congress 
broke for lunch and started the second round of voting, 
between Lebedko and Milinkevich, immediately thereafter. 
In this round Milinkevich won with 399 votes, to Lebedko's 
391, with 3 ballots spoiled, 3 not turned in and 13 against 
 
MINSK 00001205  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
both.  Milinkevich therefore beat Lebedko by one percent of 
the vote, and became the 10+'s single candidate having 
received just under half the delegates' support. 
 
6. (SBU) In his acceptance speech Milinkevich announced he 
would fight Lukashenko to the end of the campaign and 
called for unity among all the opposition.  At a subsequent 
press conference Milinkevich attempted to defuse criticism 
that he is too western-oriented: "Relations with Russia are 
very important for us.  Russia is our strategic partner, 
with which we have inseparable ties," (more on Milinkevich 
septel). 
 
7. (SBU) The independent election observation NGO 
Partnership observed both vote counts and informed Econoff 
that the voting and count had been conducted in a 
democratic manner.  Additionally, the press was allowed to 
observe freely both the vote and the count.  No journalists 
are known to have reported any problems. 
 
 
Cracks in the Unity 
------------------- 
 
8. (C) The 10+'s four presidential hopefuls and their 
supporters were all given the chance to speak, as did a 
number of other 10+ members.  Several opposition figures 
who remain outside the 10+ process, such as schoolmaster 
and NGO leader Vladimir Kolas, former Respublika MP Valery 
Frolov and former opposition presidential candidate 
Vladimir Goncharik, also spoke.  Notably missing were most 
members of the Free Belarus coalition.  In general the 
speeches all called for greater unity in the opposition, 
although many stressed that the hard work of campaigning 
had yet to begin.  Frolov and Dmitry Dashkevich of Malady 
Front both made significant gaffes, with Frolov announcing 
that nationalists are fascists and Dashkevich claiming 
Malady Front would work with any candidate, except a 
communist. 
 
9. (C) Although everyone called for unity in public, 
several participants privately told Emboffs of potential 
problems in the opposition.  Kolas stressed to Econoff that 
this congress chose only the 10+'s candidate, not the 
opposition's candidate, and said many do not agree with the 
10+ process.  Several delegates backing the UCP's Lebedko 
discussed with Pol/Econ Chief their fundamental differences 
with Milinkevich's apparent priorities Q i.e. resurrection 
of the Belarusian language and culture and closer ties with 
the West.  Ales Karnienko, a Belarusian nationalist and NGO 
leader from Gomel, complained that Milinkevich would be the 
worst possible candidate for the opposition as he lacks 
energy and the ability to work with others.  Several people 
decried what they called Milinkevich's inept management of 
Domash's presidential campaign in 2001.  Several others 
said they had voted for Milinkevich, but only because he 
was the least objectionable candidate.  They complained 
that none of these candidates were known to the Belarusian 
people, and questioned their ability to conduct a 
successful campaign.  Perspektiva leader Anatoly Shemchenko 
told Econoff before the event he decided to boycott, 
because his group decided participating in the elections 
would be futile.  Despite these negative statements, the 
vast majority of participants seemed pleased, or at least 
accepting, of the results.  [Comment: As they should, as 
this congress almost entirely consisted of 10+ members.] 
 
 
State Media Provocations; The Opposition is Gay? 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
10. (SBU) The decision to allow Belarusian state TV to 
participate quickly led to several regime provocations.  On 
the first day a troupe of self-proclaimed homosexuals 
appeared outside to announce their support for the 
opposition.  State TV seized on this (if they did not plan 
it) and on October 1 aired commentary focusing on the 
opposition's "homosexual platform."  On October 2 state TV 
continued its mockery of the congress with a cartoon and 
the slogan, "Belarus to Europe, through the a**," (more on 
media reaction septel).  In another clearly staged 
incident, a bystander threw sour cream in the face of 
former head of state Stanislav Shushkevich, shouting, "This 
is for what you did to my country!!", just as a state TV 
cameraman appeared to film Shushkevich.  This will no doubt 
be aired in clips commiserating over the fall of the USSR. 
 
 
MINSK 00001205  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
 
Resolutions 
----------- 
 
11. (C) As this was by far the largest gathering of pro- 
democracy forces in Belarus in years, the congress took the 
opportunity to vote on a number of other issues.  Most 
importantly, the congress voted to jointly support 
whichever candidate won, to pool the coalition's resources, 
and to abstain from nominating competing candidates. 
[Note: Until now the 10+ had been an informal coalition of 
party leaders.  This was the first time coalition 
membership was put to a vote by party members.]  The 
congress also agreed to support the Belarusian language, 
urge Lukashenko not to seek re-election, and for the GOB to 
conduct free and fair elections.  The only controversy came 
in an argument about creating a commission to investigate 
previous political disappearances. 
 
 
Just the Beginning 
------------------ 
 
12. (C) Comment: The choice of Milinkevich has advantages 
and disadvantages.  Of the four candidates, he was clearly 
the weakest public speaker, lacking energy and a strong 
message.  He is also routinely criticized for his heavy- 
handed and ineffective management of the 2001 Domash 
presidential campaign.  On the other hand, he brings to the 
table a network of NGO supporters across Belarus, he lacks 
the stigma of belonging to a political party (even though 
he was nominated by the widely reviled BPF), and he has not 
yet been a target of Lukashenko's propaganda attack 
machine.  He also has leadership experience, having been 
the deputy mayor of Grodno in the mid-1990s.  As several 
congress participants put it, "He would be a good 
president, in a normal country, but he might not have what 
it takes to challenge Lukashenko." 
 
13. (C) Comment cont'd: As many of those participating in 
the congress acknowledged, the selection of a single 
candidate was just the first step in the 10+ coalition's 
presidential campaign.  More important will be how the 10+ 
advertises its candidate and reaches out to a skeptical 
populace, particularly in the face of increasingly shrill 
pro-Lukashenko propaganda.  A number of 10+ leaders 
admitted campaigning must start immediately, but all made 
it clear few plans were in place to do so.  However, the 
BPF's Vyachorka pointed out that once the 10+ starts to 
campaign it should have an easier time as Belarusians 
always ask, "If not Lukashenko, then who?"; the opposition 
finally has a name to give as an alternative.  Milinkevich 
himself seemed at a loss in his acceptance speech, not 
taking the opportunity to enunciate a clear message or fire 
up the troops.  We can only hope he finds his footing soon. 
 
 
KROL