US embassy cable - 05ADANA169

UNCLAS ADANA 000169 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
NOT FOR INTERNET DISTIBUTION 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL, PHUM, PGOV, TU, ADANA 
SUBJECT: ANXIOUS SOUTHEAST TURKEY PONDERS EU INTEGRATION IN THE 
BALANCE 
 
REF: ANKARA 5932 
 
1.(SBU)  Summary:  Contacts throughout Turkey's Kurdish 
southeastern provinces are very anxious as Turkey's EU 
integration hangs in the balance.  Many are looking over their 
shoulders at recurring, low-scale regional violence and rising 
nationalism, fearing renewed wider sectarian violence should the 
EU integration process not provide a way to break the regional 
rhythm of action and reaction between the PKK and GoT security 
forces.  End Summary. 
 
2.(SBU)  AMCON Adana traveled throughout southeast Turkey from 
September 26 to October 1, visiting Diyarbakir twice and ranging 
as far as Hakkari, the southeastern most and poorest Turkish 
province, where the military is engaged in open conflict with 
the PKK.  The mood about the EU process among contacts was 
downbeat and very nervous.  Many contacts described the initial 
optimism created by PM Erdogan's naming of the Kurdish issue in 
his August 12 Diyarbakir speech being strongly diluted by TGS 
CHOD Hilmi Ozkok's September 11-14 southeastern Turkey speaking 
engagements emphasizing "unity and solidarity" in the face of 
"provocations" and "the dangers of ethnic nationalism" (Note: 
Ozkok spoke in Van, Diyarbakir and Adana all in an approximately 
one week SE regional tour.  End Note.) 
 
3.(SBU)  "Politically, we are at a stalemate.  Erdogan leaned 
forward and Ozkok pulled us back.  The (state elites) do not 
want democratization to happen like this.  They want social and 
economic development (for southeast Turkey), but no political 
development," one longtime human right contact described. 
Another contact said that "southeastern Turkey, without a major 
consistent outside pressure like the EU process, is paralyzed 
between the opposing pressures from the conservative Kemalist 
elements of the GoT and equally unrelenting Kurdish 
nationalists." 
 
4.(SBU)  Many contacts said that the situation, which is already 
punctuated by what they called "calculated violence by both the 
(GoT) and PKK," easily could drift back into heavier sectarian 
conflict without the lure of the EU process to channel momentum 
toward democratization and reconciliation.   In fact, contacts 
in Hakkari and Van reported flows of dozens of new recruits 
heading to join the PKK from border provinces like Hakkari and 
Sirnak.  AMCON Adana meetings with the new Kurdish party, the 
Democratic Society Movement, also revealed no movement away from 
its previous pro-PKK positions.  Additionally, in the last two 
weeks, there have been over a dozen clashes involving multiple 
fatalities, serious non-lethal casualties, controlled bomb 
incidents or narrowly averted bomb attacks in Van, Hakkari, 
Sirnak, Erzincan and Bingol. 
 
5.(SBU)   Despite later endorsement by the pro-Kurdish mayor, 
Diyarbakir civil society contacts also were very suspicious that 
their planned October 2 several hundred thousand-strong "Yes to 
the EU" rally in Diyarbakir was cancelled by the provincial 
governor, primarily since its nationalist, anti-EU counterpart 
rally was allowed to continue in Ankara. "Nationalists are on 
the offensive now," several contacts said, warning that current 
anti-EU sentiment could quickly transform into Turkish-Kurdish 
ethnic conflicts in mixed provinces like Adana, Mersin and 
Izmir, where the nationalist MHP is amply supported. 
 
6. (SBU)  Comment:  AMCON Adana's contacts in predominantly 
Kurdish southeastern Turkey, after years of conflict and empty 
promises, often can tend toward gloomy prognosis, but their 
current tone still bears serious consideration.  The momentum 
toward conflict in Turkey's southeastern provinces which they 
comment has been building since Spring 2005 is not irreversible, 
but it is troubling.  Despite Prime Minster Erdogan's stated 
commitment to reform no matter what the EU path may yield, 
absent an EU process to anchor Turkey's reform process and buoy 
the AK Party's advocacy of specific implementation steps, the 
region's predominantly Kurdish population could suffer a serious 
loss of confidence in the overall GoT commitment to the 
meaningful political reform which they have been awaiting. 
Faced with such a psychological setback, voices for moderation 
in the small Kurdish civil society seriously risk being drowned 
out by nationalist, generally pro-PKK Kurds.  End Comment. 
 
7.(SBU)  Baghdad minimize considered.