US embassy cable - 05DUSHANBE1596

UNCLAS  DUSHANBE 001596 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED.  NOT FOR INTERNET USE. 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PINR, PGOV, TI 
SUBJECT: DOES EVERYONE LOVE A PARTY?  TAJIKS ABOUT TO FIND OUT 
 
1.      (SBU)  Three new political parties have recently started 
the process of registering with Ministry of Justice.  Whether 
they will be successful depends less on their paperwork and more 
on their support of or threat to existing power structures. 
 
2.      (U)  Party of the Economic Reform of Tajikistan (PERT): 
Chairman Olim Boboev, rector of the University of Transport, 
former rector of the University of Trade, and 1994 International 
Visitor Program alumnus, has gathered support from economists, 
social scientists and businessmen, mainly from the Hisor Valley 
and Sughd region.  The 1119-member party wants to reduce the 
power of the president by transferring some presidential 
authority to the Prime Minister; it also aims to strengthen 
Tajikistan's market economy.  The party has no headquarters; the 
chairman is currently managing all day-to-day party business. 
 
3.      (SBU)  Boboev is a pragmatic, strong economist, short on 
charisma but long on economic and trade experience.  Four years 
ago, the government replaced him as rector for the University of 
Trade with someone from the President's home region.  Boboev is 
not particularly pro-government, and feels that existing 
political parties cater too strongly to particular regions and 
interests. 
 
4.      (SBU) COMMENT:  The PERT represents a quiet movement of 
people who want more than just stability from the government and 
have become increasingly disenchanted with the Government's slow 
pace of reform.  Chances of Registration: 1 in 10.  (Our "books" 
on the chances of registration are all in-house and the odds 
purely speculative.)  END COMMENT 
 
5.      (U)  Progressive Youth Party of Tajikistan (PYPT): Not to 
be deterred by conventional definitions of youth, 45-year old, 
Saidja'far Ismonov founded the Party of the Progressive Youth of 
Tajikistan (PYPT).   A long-time Communist Youth (Komsomol) 
worker, which he turned into the Youth Committee of Tajikistan, 
Ismonov teaches at the Agrarian University of Tajikistan.  The 
party has more than 750 supporters from across the country who 
have applied to be members, and convoked its first congress at 
the Agrarian University September 12.  However, according to 
Tajikistan's Law on Political Parties, an educational facility 
cannot be used for political activities, so another congress is 
planned for October 29 in the building of the State Publishing 
House Sharqi Ozod. 
 
6.      (U)  According to Ismonov, the PYPT goals include 
assisting the Government to strengthen democratic institutions 
and implement the rights fixed in the Constitution to protect 
the peace, security and the public tranquility.  The party also 
aims to help young people better understand their rights and 
improve their status in the society. 
 
7.      (SBU)  COMMENT:  The party is largely thought to be a 
spin-off of the ruling PDPT.  At the first PYPT meeting, Ismanov 
let slip that he already belongs to the PDPT, which marred the 
image of the Progressive Youth as a "new" party.  Ismanov is 
known for being loyal but not particularly articulate.  His 
platform essentially supports the existing power structure. 
Some say government forces are behind the creation of the 
Progressive Youth party so that the PDPT will not be the only 
pro-government party in the next parliamentary elections. 
However, the obvious connections between Ismanov and the 
government may now hinder his party's chances for registration 
and popularity.  Chances of Registration: 1 in 2.   END COMMENT 
 
8.      (U)  Party of Vahdat (Unity) of Tajikistan (PVT): 
Chairman Hikmatullo Saidov, 47, is trying for the second year to 
get his Vahdat (Unity) party registered.  The government last 
year denied the party registration after allegedly finding 
several false signatures in applications of supporters/members 
in the Jirgatol District.  Most of the 2000 PVT members come 
from the Rasht region, previously an opposition stronghold, and 
now live in various districts in the south. 
 
9.      (U)  Saidov is a former member of the presidium of the 
Democratic Party of Tajikistan who broke off after differences 
with party leaders.  His party represents the interests of the 
Gharmi popular people as well as Davlat Usmon, former member and 
deputy chairman of the Islamic Renaissance Party (IRPT), and 
 
former Deputy PM and Minister of Economic and Trade.  Usmon is 
rumored to want to run in the November 2006 presidential 
elections, but needs a political party to nominate and support 
him during the election.  (Note: In previous elections, Usmon 
only reluctantly ran as an IRPT candidate.) 
 
10.     (SBU)  COMMENT:  The Government knows that the PVT will 
nominate Usmon for the presidential election and may try to 
block the party's registration.  On the other hand, the 
President will need at least one opponent to make it a race. 
Chances of registration: 1 in 40.  END COMMENT. 
 
 
HOAGLAND 
 
 
NNNN