US embassy cable - 05WELLINGTON764

UNCLAS WELLINGTON 000764 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR D (FRITZ), EAP/ANP, EAP/EP, EAP/RSP, INR/EAP 
NSC FOR VICTOR CHA AND MICHAEL GREEN 
SECDEF FOR OSD/ISA LIZ PHU 
PACOM FOR J2/J233/J5/SJFHQ 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, NZ 
SUBJECT: NZ ELECTIONS: LABOUR VICTORY CONFIRMED 
 
REF: WELLINGTON 719 
 
1. (U) New Zealand's official election results, released 
October 1, confirm a Labour victory with 50 seats in 
Parliament and a slightly easier challenge in forming the 
next government.  The notable change from preliminary counts 
on election night September 17 is the reduction of the 
overall size of Parliament by one seat to 121 at the expense 
of the National Party, which now holds 48 seats instead of 
the 49 indicated earlier.  The revision also reduces from 12 
to 11 the number of supportive minority-party seats that 
Labour needs to secure. 
 
2. (SBU) Labour is already assured a coalition partnership 
with Jim Anderton's Progressive Party, which holds one seat. 
A Labour-Progressive coalition will need help from at least 
two other parties to reach the 61 seats necessary to manage a 
government.  Its options are: New Zealand First (seven 
seats), the Green Party (six seats), United Future (three 
seats), and the Maori Party (four seats).  Labour's task of 
forming a government proves more challenging than in the 1999 
and 2002 elections because it faces a reinvigorated National 
Party.  A sustainable government will require the 
participation of at least four parties, whereas the prior 
Labour-led governments required no more than three.  As the 
center-left narrowly outpolled the center-right (by less than 
one point), Labour faces pressure to lean to center as it 
formulates its strategy for forming a government. 
 
3. (U) In the tally of 218,000 absentee and overseas party 
votes, the Maori Party posted a stronger than expected 
performance.  While the final count leaves the party's seat 
count unchanged, the party is likely to bear influence 
disproportionately in excess of its four seats. 
Burnett