US embassy cable - 05KUWAIT4264

C O N F I D E N T I A L KUWAIT 004264 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR NEA/ARPI, LONDON FOR TSOU, PARIS FOR ZEYA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/30/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PINR, KDEM, KU, SUCCESSION 
SUBJECT: RUMORS OF A "SHAYKH" UP: KUWAITI WRITER PREDICTS 
CABINET CHANGES KEY TO SUCCESSION DEBATE 
 
REF: KUWAIT 3677 (AND PREVIOUS) 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Richard LeBaron for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
1.  (C) The succession issue continues to dominate political 
discussion in Kuwait as factions both inside and outside the 
Al-Sabah family maneuver for political influence in 
anticipation of the death of either the Amir or the Crown 
Prince who are both in poor health.  Ahmed Deyain, a liberal 
columnist with close ties to Shaykh Nasser Al-Sabah Al-Ahmed 
Al-Sabah, the Prime Minister's son, told Poloff that in two 
separate "off-the-record" conversations, former Interior 
Minister and current Amiri Diwan Advisor Shaykh Mohammed 
Al-Khalid Al-Hamad Al-Sabah told Deyain that the royal family 
is currently divided between the Jaber branch, led by the 
Amir and his half-brother Prime Minister Shaykh Sabah 
Al-Ahmed Al-Jaber Al-Sabah, and the Hamad and Salem branches 
who are trying to prevent the Prime Minister from 
monopolizing political power.  (Note: Historically, power has 
alternated between the Jaber and the Salem branches of the 
Al-Sabah family.  Members of the Hamad branch have very 
limited influence.  End note.) 
 
2.  (C) According to Deyain, who wrote a book on succession 
in Kuwait, Shaykh Mohammed Al-Khalid claimed the Salem and 
Hamad branches would do everything they could to ensure Crown 
Prince Saad Al-Abdullah Al-Salem Al-Sabah became the next 
Amir, "even if they have to take him in a wheelchair to the 
National Assembly to take the Amiri oath."  (Comment: Shaykh 
Saad is widely believed to lack all but the most basic 
physical and mental functions.  Insisting Shaykh Saad become 
Amir would be only a temporary solution, allowing Salem 
family members to appoint key executive positions in Shaykh 
Saad's name before he abdicated the amirship.  End comment.) 
If Shaykh Saad became Amir, Shaykh Mohammed Al-Khalid said 
Shaykh Sabah would become Crown Prince and Shaykh Saad would 
appoint a new Prime Minister, Deyain informed Poloff. 
 
3.  (C) Deyain believed the Prime Minister could "absorb 
tensions" within the ruling family, explaining that Shaykh 
Sabah had two options: move to replace the Crown Prince, or 
reshuffle the Cabinet, placating family opponents with key 
ministerial positions.  The second option was more likely, 
Deyain argued.  He predicted no decision would be taken until 
after the Amir's death, at which time National Guard Chief 
Shaykh Salem Al-Ali Al-Salem Al-Sabah, the fourth highest GOK 
official in order of protocol, and other top family members 
would negotiate with Shaykh Sabah for ministerial portfolios 
in exchange for their support for his ultimate accession to 
the amirship.  Deyain hoped the royal family would make a 
decision on succession soon in order to break the political 
deadlock that has emerged over the issue. 
 
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LEBARON