US embassy cable - 05DUBLIN1211

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DUBLIN 001211 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/31/2015 
TAGS: KDEM, KPAL, PREL, EUN, HR CROATIA 
SUBJECT: PRE-GAERC DEMARCHE: IRELAND HOPEFUL ON TURKEY, 
WAITING ON CROATIA, AND TOUGH ON UZBEKISTAN 
 
REF: STATE 177048 
 
Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Jonathan Benton; Reasons 1.4 (B) 
 and (D). 
 
1.  (C) Summary: On September 29, Post delivered reftel 
demarche to Jim Kelly, Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) EU 
Correspondent.  Kelly expressed optimism that EU accession 
negotiations with Turkey would begin October 3.  He noted, 
however, that Ireland would await UN war crimes prosecutor 
del Ponte's report on Croatia's cooperation with ICTY before 
taking a position on EU accession talks for Croatia.  Ireland 
shares a common view among Member States on the immediate 
need to "get tough" with Uzbekistan, which would be reflected 
in substantive GAERC decisions to limit cooperation with the 
country.  Regarding Russia, there was doubt that Member 
States would finalize a package of deliverables and an 
accompanying statement for the October 4 EU-Russia Summit. 
Kelly noted that Ireland was upbeat on prospects for 
continued U.S.-EU cooperation on Iraq and wised to ensure 
coordination between BMENA and EuroMed.  He also cited 
Ireland's willingness to respond to Quartet Special Envoy 
Wolfensohn's call at the Gleneagles G8 Conference for donor 
assistance of USD 3 billion to the Palestinian Authority. 
End summary. 
 
Turkey 
------ 
 
2.  (C) Ireland remains optimistic that EU accession 
negotiations with Turkey will begin on October 3, though a 
final EU decision on the issue "will likely go down to the 
wire." said Kelly.  He observed that the Turkish Government's 
July 29 statement that its decision to sign the Protocol to 
the Ankara Agreement did not imply recognition of Cyprus had 
prompted serious diplomatic wrangling within the EU through 
August and September.  The EU's September 21 declaration 
calling on Turkey to recognize all Member States was, 
according to Kelly, correctly balanced, laying down a clear 
political marker while not setting new conditions to begin 
negotiations.  Kelly said that the UK presidency had been 
more recently focused on bilateral discussions with Member 
States to finalize the negotiating framework. 
 
The Balkans 
----------- 
 
3.  (C) The report that UN war crimes tribunal prosecutor 
Carla del Ponte will submit to the UN following her ongoing 
visit to Zagreb will be the key determinant in Ireland's 
position on Croatia, said Kelly.  He explained that the 
possible start of EU accession talks for Croatia would depend 
on whether del Ponte's report positively assessed the 
Croatian Government's cooperation with ICTY.  Ireland saw 
Gotovina's arrest as central to that assessment.  Kelly 
described as a "strange turn" del Ponte's recent public 
comments that the Vatican had been unhelpful in locating 
Gotovina, whom she believed was hiding in a Croatian 
Franciscan monastery.  He also remarked that Ireland saw no 
link between Turkey's and Croatia's accession tracks. 
 
4.  (C) Kelly said that the GAERC meeting would touch lightly 
on Kosovo, as UNSYG Special Envoy Kai Eide had not yet 
submitted his Comprehensive Review and recommendations to the 
UN.  A fuller EU discussion would await Eide's report.  Kelly 
noted, however, that Member States were "primed" to play a 
positive role in Kosovo in the future status process. 
 
Uzbekistan 
---------- 
 
5.  (C) Ireland shares a strong, common view among Member 
States on the immediate need to "get tough" with the 
Government of Uzbekistan, said Kelly.  He noted that the 
GOU's failure to allow an independent inquiry into the 
Andijon incident had motivated Member States to make even 
clearer the message from the May, June, and July GAERC 
discussions that the incident would not be forgotten.  Member 
States were also concerned about the general deterioration of 
civil liberties in Uzbekistan, a situation that the Irish 
Government discussed regularly with human rights NGOs, such 
as Human Rights Watch.  Kelly expected that the October 3 
GAERC would reach conclusions on substantive measures to be 
adopted, including a partial suspension of the EU Partnership 
and Cooperation Agreement with Uzbekistan, visa restrictions, 
and possibly an arms embargo. 
 
Russia and Its Neighbors 
------------------------ 
 
6.  (C) Kelly said that the GAERC meeting would not 
substantively discuss Russia, given the EU-Russia Summit the 
following day in London.  He noted that Member States were 
working on a package of deliverables for the Summit, 
extending to streamlined visa and entry procedures.  He 
added, however, that a final package and accompanying 
statement might not be ready for release by the Summit's 
conclusion. 
 
7.  (C) Kelly pointed out that Georgia, Moldova, and Belarus 
were not scheduled for discussion at the GAERC meeting.  He 
anticipated that the November GAERC discussions would focus 
on Moldova's situation, which he characterized as 
increasingly fluid.  He said that Ireland agreed with reftel 
points on the necessity to go beyond scheduling elections in 
Transnistria to create conditions for a free/fair vote. 
 
Ukraine 
------- 
 
8.  (C) Kelly noted that Ukraine was not an agenda item for 
the GAERC discussions, but he observed that Ireland had been 
concerned about recent political turbulence within the 
Ukrainian Government.  Ireland was worried that the 
Yushchenko-Tymoshenko dispute and the Cabinet's dismissal 
would knock the reform process off track.  More recently, 
there had been signs of stabilization, and Ireland was 
hopeful that momentum on reform could be restored. 
 
9.  (C) Regarding non-market economy status (NME) for 
Ukraine, Kelly referred Emboff to DFA Director for Russia and 
Eastern Europe, Kay Coll, who said that the Commission had 
not, to her knowledge, communicated recently with Member 
States on Ukraine's NME application.  She pointed out that 
Ukraine had identified NME as a desired deliverable for the 
December 1 EU-Ukraine Summit.  She believed that Ukraine was 
on track for WTO admission at the Hong Kong ministerial, 
assuming the conclusion of a bilateral agreement with the 
United States and the passage of several bills that would 
make Ukraine's domestic legislation WTO-compliant. 
 
Iraq 
---- 
 
10.  (C) Ireland was upbeat on prospects for continued 
U.S.-EU cooperation on Iraq, as reflected by the positive 
tone of Secretary Rice's discussions with Member States' 
foreign ministers on the margins of UNGA, said Kelly (who sat 
in on those discussions).  He noted that the EU had not yet 
begun to consider the UN request for USD 107 million in 
electoral support for Iraq.  He elaborated that responding to 
the UN request could be complex, as it was outside 
pre-programmed EU electoral aid for Iraq and would therefore 
require political discussions among Member States.  Kelly 
confirmed that Ireland had decided against contributing 
police personnel as part of the EU's rule-of-law training 
programs for Iraq. 
 
BMENA 
----- 
 
11.  (C) Ireland welcomed the Broader Middle East and North 
Africa (BMENA) Initiative and wished to ensure coordination 
with the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership (EuroMed), said 
Kelly.  He cited the importance of avoiding duplication in 
programs conducted under both initiatives.  He also pointed 
out that Ireland was not preparing to consider financial 
support to BMENA, given its commitments to EuroMed, although 
he recognized that several of the newer Member States had 
indicated in New York their willingness to make financial 
contributions. 
 
MEPP 
---- 
 
12.  (C) Kelly anticipated a general lunch-time discussion on 
the Middle East Peace Process (MEPP) at the GAERC meeting, as 
Turkey was likely to squeeze time for other agenda items.  He 
cited EU praise for Israel's withdrawal from Gaza, and he 
related Ireland's hope that all parties could build on the 
good will demonstrated by disengagement.  Ireland also saw 
Quartet Special Envoy (QSE) Wolfensohn's economic agenda for 
Gaza as a priority, while recognizing the challenges that the 
agenda would face.  Kelly noted Ireland's willingness to 
respond to Wolfensohn's call at the Gleneagles G8 Conference 
for donor assistance of USD 3 billion to the Palestinian 
Authority. 
KENNY