US embassy cable - 05ANKARA5845

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ANKARA 005845 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/30/2025 
TAGS: PREL, MOPS, PTER, KPKO, TU, IZ, AF, RS, NATO 
SUBJECT: APNSA HADLEY'S MEETING WITH TURKISH CHOD OZKOK 
 
Classified By: CDA Nancy McEldowney for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1. (C) Summary: Despite our occasional differences over 
Iraq, Turkey remains America's strategic partner, asserted 
Turkish CHOD GEN Ozkok to APNSA Hadley.  Ozkok reviewed 
Turkish views of the Black Sea, Caucasus, and Central 
Asia.  He outlined the "nuclear chain" stretching from 
North Korea, India, Pakistan, and now to Iran, and worried 
that Tehran's weapons program will destabilize the region. 
APNSA Hadley also highlighted Iran's support for 
terrorism.  Ozkok reaffirmed that Turkey stands with us 
against terror, and hoped for coalition action to bottle up 
the PKK in northern Iraq.  He emphasized the importance of 
the Sunni Arabs to Iraq's future, adding that the central 
government must control the country's oil resources or the 
country may split apart.  Hadley expressed appreciation for 
Turkey's major contribution to maintaining Afghanistan's 
security.  Both sides agreed to hold the next High Level 
Defense Group meeting soon.  End summary. 
 
Black Sea: Turkey Working to Calm the Russians 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
2. (C) In a cordial Sept. 24 meeting, CHOD GEN Hilmi Ozkok 
provided an overview for APNSA Hadley of Turkey's strategic 
concerns in this complex region.  Ozkok said that U.S. 
officials are well aware of Turkish positions on Iraq, 
especially regarding Kirkuk and the PKK, so instead 
reviewed the neighborhood, beginning with the Black Sea. 
Save for Turkey in the south, the Black Sea had been 
Soviet-dominated for 50 years.  Now we have two NATO Allies 
on the sea's western side, a PfP member (Georgia) to the 
east, and Ukraine and Russia to the north, who maintain 
some level of cooperation with the Alliance.  Ozkok 
asserted that what happens in the Black Sea affects 
Russia's self-confidence; the GOR perceives a growing NATO 
presence in the area, and Turkey is working to calm the 
Russians so they will accept NATO's presence there.  Ozkok 
noted that the Russians have never participated in a PfP 
exercise: "They still feel they are different from everyone 
else." 
 
3. (C) Turning to the Caucasus, Ozkok noted how Azerbaijan 
is getting richer, while Armenia (which occupies 20 percent 
of Azeri territory) is growing poorer.  Russia supports 
Armenia while Turkey and the U.S. have major interests in 
Azerbaijan.  It will not be easy to solve the 
Nagorno-Karabakh dispute peacefully, Ozkok averred. 
 
Central Asia: EU is "Indifferent" 
--------------------------------- 
 
4. (C) The presidents in the Central Asia states are all 
"Soviet-minded," Ozkok believed, and recommended we focus 
our attention on the next generation of leaders. 
Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan are oil-rich, but 
the people are not benefiting from these riches. 
Tajikistan and Uzbekistan are poor and a hotbed for 
terrorism.  Ozkok thinks the EU should cooperate more with 
the U.S. in this area, but he perceives the EU as being 
"indifferent" to Central Asia.  He believes a Central 
Asia-Russia-China bloc may emerge in the coming years to 
the EU's detriment unless it acts now.  He suggested that 
the U.S. and Turkey share the same western orientation, and 
Turkey can use its friendly relations with the Central 
Asians to advance our common interests. 
 
Iran's Nuclear Program Destabilizes the Region 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
5. (C) Turning to Iran, Ozkok expressed concerned with what 
he sees as a "nuclear chain" linking North Korea, India, 
Pakistan, and now Iran.  Iran's weapons program will only 
encourage others in the Middle East region to pursue their 
own nuclear deterrent, thus making it all the more 
important to stop the Iranians, who also have capable 
delivery 
systems.  As a neighbor, Turkey maintains relations with 
Tehran, "but we are very careful with them."  Ozkok opined 
that Iran's bad deeds arise in part from its perception 
that it is isolated.  APNSA Hadley responded that we also 
worry about Iran due to its support for terrorism, in 
particular Hizbullah.  Iran now stands as the world's 
number one state sponsor of terrorism.  Ozkok agreed. 
6. (C) Ozkok reaffirmed that Turkey stands with the U.S. in 
condemning terrorism in all its forms, and commended Hadley 
for his strong statement to the Turkish press on the PKK. 
Ozkok said Turkey understands the limitations of U.S. 
forces in Iraq to fight the PKK, but is still hopeful that 
more can be done to limit their movements in Iraq and into 
Turkey.  Ozkok noted that the PKK is learning improved IED 
capabilities from other terrorist groups in Iraq, then 
employing these IEDs in Turkey to kill Turkish soldiers. 
The Turkish military is now working on tactics, techniques, 
and procedures (TTPs) to combat this threat.  He repeated 
the high expectations the Turkish people have for the U.S. 
to assist in the fight against the PKK. 
 
Iraq: Keep the Sunnis In the Game 
--------------------------------- 
 
7. (C) Ozkok asserted that "you know our policies and 
expectations" in the Middle East region.  Turkey had been 
concerned by instability in Iraq and by the 
Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and is pleased that the 
latter is calming down: "Two conflicts in the region were 
too much," he added.  As for Iraq, Ozkok hoped that the new 
constitution will serve all the communities there; for now, 
the Sunni Arabs are the key.  With oil in the north and 
the south but with most Sunni Arabs living in the central 
area of the country, they fear for their economic and 
political future.  It is vital, Ozkok said, that Iraq's 
natural resources be under the control of a strong central 
government.  (He referred to Kirkuk in this context.) The 
Sunnis Arabs will do "whatever they can" 
(including resort to terrorism) if they believe control of 
resources will devolve to the regions.  Such instability 
could lead to the rise of another Saddam Hussein.  If the 
country breaks apart, there will be "no rest in this region 
for a century." 
 
8. (C) APNSA Hadley responded that there is some irony that 
the Sunni Arabs see federalism as tending to tear the 
country apart.  On the contrary, we believed from early on 
that federalism was the only way to keep the country 
together, especially given its recent history and the 
divides among the communities.  The USG hopes for broad 
Sunni Arab participation not only in the constitutional 
referendum, but perhaps more importantly in the December 
elections, the result of which should be a strong central 
government.  Under the TAL, the ITG was designed to be 
weak, which has admittedly damaged its efforts to fight 
terrorism.  The government elected under the constitution 
should be stronger in this regard, and will be capable of 
taking on not only terrorism but also key issues such as 
Kirkuk, the economy, and the future shape of Iraqi 
federalism.  Hadley noted that a million Sunnis have 
recently registered to vote, and have indicated not only 
that they will vote in October, but also in December.  He 
also praised the enormous resilience of the Iraqi people in 
dealing with terrorism there. 
 
9. (C) Hadley said he would appreciate Ozkok's "operational 
advice" in dealing with terrorism given Turkey's own 
experience.  We have had strong success in Najaf in 
training the ISF to take control of the security 
situation, to deter terrorists from returning, and to set 
up strong local government structures.  Ozkok responded 
that economic and political opportunity are vital.  If a 
man is hopeful for the future and that of his children, he 
will not turn to terrorism, the CHOD asserted.  Speaking 
operationally, Ozkok added that it is also vital to target 
the leadership of terrorist organizations and to deal with 
state sponsors of terrorism; Ozkok specifically identified 
Syria's support for the Iraqi insurgency as an example of 
such state sponsorship. 
 
10. (C) Ozkok noted that even while there is no immediate 
threat to Turkey's territorial integrity in the region, 
"there are threats to our interests."  This is why--even 
after the end of the Cold War--Turkey has still maintained 
a large military.  Ozkok joked that "all militaries are 
addicted to threats" and thus seek to maintain high 
readiness, but added that there is consensus in all sectors 
of the Turkish policymaking apparatus that a strong 
military remains necessary.  He asked that the U.S. and 
Turkey maintain not only our strong mil-mil relations, but 
also continue to quietly support the role of the military 
in Turkey. 
 
The Afghan Success Story 
------------------------ 
 
11. (C) Hadley closed by expressing the U.S.'s deep 
appreciation for Turkey's contributions to securing the 
future of Afghanistan.  He recalled that there were 
initially no volunteers to command ISAF II, but that Turkey 
stood up to do so and "did a marvelous job" at a time when 
success was hardly assured.  ISAF has been a success for 
Afghanistan and for NATO; the Alliance has proved that it 
can play a significant role outside of Europe.  There are 
still major challenges in southeast Afghanistan, and we are 
seeking stronger U.S.-Afghanistan-Pakistan trilateral 
cooperation to deal with the threats there.  In addition, 
narcotics remain a serious problem.  While Afghanistan is a 
success, we need to maintain our focus or risk letting this 
success slip away. 
12. (C) Ozkok responded that Afghanistan has progressed 
better than he had expected.  He saw the main challenges 
ahead as providing economic opportunity for the Afghan 
people while at the same time dealing with narcotics 
production.  He advised that NATO stay away from the counter 
narcotics mission, lest the Alliance be seen as taking 
income away from the people. 
 
Ozkok: Don't Hold March 1 Against Us 
------------------------------------ 
 
13. (C) Ozkok closed by highlighting the close U.S.-Turkey 
security relationship over the past 50 years, and pointed 
out that the U.S. should not harshly criticize Turkey for 
the March 1, 2003 parliamentary vote not to allow the 
coalition to use Turkey for OIF.  He highlighted our 
cooperation in carrying out Operations Provide Comfort and 
Northern Watch.  These operations "formed the battlefield" 
for OIF by weakening Saddam's control over the north, and 
also provided Iraq's Kurds with near-independence.  While 
there may be temporary differences over Iraq, Ozkok 
asserted, we are still strategic partners. 
 
14. (C) Hadley closed by recommending that the U.S.-Turkey 
High Level Defense Group meet soon.  He recalled this was a 
successful forum during his time at DoD, but that it has 
not met for about two years.  Ozkok responded that Turkey 
is ready to hold the next HLDG at any time.  Hadley noted 
that he had also suggested to Acting FonMin Tuygan a "more 
institutionalized dialogue" between the Turkish MFA and 
State.  (NOTE: We have offered TGS early November for the 
next HLDG; the Turks have yet to get back to us.  END 
NOTE.) 
 
Participants 
------------ 
 
15. (U) 
 
U.S.: 
APNSA Stephen Hadley 
Charge d'Affaires McEldowney 
NSC Senior Director Ansley 
NSC Senior Director Harriman 
NSC Press Director Davis 
APNSA's Personal Assistant Haenle 
Embassy PolMilOff (notetaker) 
 
Turkey: 
CHOD GEN Ozkok 
D/CHOD GEN Kosaner 
J5 Director LTG Zorlu (NB--Ozkok noted that Zorlu had been 
the commander of ISAF II) 
J3 Director LTG Kalyoncu 
J2 Director LTG Guner 
MFA Director General for the Americas Alpar 
MFA Deputy Director General for the Americas Ilicak 
MCELDOWNEY