US embassy cable - 02ABUJA2989

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ABUJA 002989 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
NSC FOR J. FRAZIER 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/1/12 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KDEM, NI 
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: INEC CHAIRMAN DISMISSES CHARGES OF UNDER- 
REGISTRATION AS "LOOSE TALK" 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR HOWARD F. JETER; REASONS 1.5 (B) 
AND (D). 
 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY: During an October 30 meeting with Chiefs 
of Mission from key western and other countries, INEC 
Chairman Abel Guobadia discussed INEC's performance during 
the recent voter registration and its plans for the spring 
general election.  Guobadia dismissed allegations of both 
significant under-registration and fraudulent multiple 
registration, but conceded if evidence of wide spread 
problems were found, INEC would extend the voter 
registration period.  Those who were unable to register 
would have to prove their case to INEC before they would be 
added to the rolls.  Despite worries expressed by the 
diplomats, Guobadia was confident INEC's "biometric 
profiling" plan would eliminate most multiple registrants. 
Finally, Guobadia requested donor assistance to procure 
election materials; train election day staff; plan 
logistical preparations; and create a radio network to 
disseminate election results quickly.  END SUMMARY. 
 
 
2.  (C) During an October 30 meeting with Ambassador Jeter, 
representatives of other Western Missions including the 
British, Australian and Canadian High Commissions, and 
envoys of the Burkinabe and Ghanaian governments, 
Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) Chairman 
Abel Guobadia discussed the September voter registration 
exercise and INEC's plans for the spring general election. 
After clarifying the USG's desire to assist Nigeria and his 
belief that the upcoming election currently makes INEC the 
most important institution in Nigeria, Ambassador Jeter 
noted there has been widespread criticism of the sub- 
standard registration process.  Deputy British High 
Commissioner Charles Bird further characterized the 
registration process as "seriously flawed in terms of 
under-registration". 
 
 
3. (C) Guobadia said he had not seen evidence of under- 
registration.  No one had come to INEC complaining he could 
not register.  Guobadia discounted the allegations as being 
based more in speculation and rumor than in fact.  "It's 
all loose talk," he claimed.  He stated INEC had 
distributed 71 million registration forms for an estimated 
voting population of 59.5 million.  According to Guobadia, 
only 2 million of the forms were left unused after the 
registration period.  Therefore, he reasoned, "nearly all 
eligible persons should have registered," since even if one 
accounted for lost or stolen materials and marginal numbers 
of multiple registrants, there were more than enough 
registration materials for everyone. 
 
 
4.  (C) Bird cautioned that he had witnessed people unable 
to register and questioned whether INEC was prepared to 
issue a public statement saying under-registration was 
minimal.  Guobadia deflected Bird's question and reiterated 
his prior statement that the small number of leftover 
materials has led him to conclude under-registration was 
minimal.  (COMMENT: Guobadia's defensive statements about 
the registration exercise were unfortunate.  Nationwide 
claims of under-registration undermine his credibility as 
an impartial administrator.  Moreover, we know that INEC is 
having severe problems reconciling the rolls.  It was 
scheduled to publish the registration lists by September 
26.  Already more than a month overdue, the list is still 
not ready to be published because of the numerous 
inaccuracies in the registration process.  END COMMENT.) 
 
 
5.  (C) Canadian High Commissioner Howard Strauss mentioned 
reports that as many as 10 million people registered more 
than once.  If true, the multiple registrants account for 
the large number of unregistered voters despite the 
scarcity of unused forms (NOTE: Additionally, there have 
been unconfirmed reports of hoarding of the forms and 
registration cards in several areas.  The culprits may have 
filled in the forms and kept the cards to give to local 
partisans.  END NOTE).  Guobadia said biometric profiling 
by state and local governments would eliminate most of the 
multiple registrants.  Fingerprints taken at the time of 
registration would be compiled within "computer-based State 
and Local Government Area Preliminary Registers" and then 
used to identify those who registered more than once or who 
falsely claimed they were unable to register. 
 
 
6.  (C) Guobadia admitted it would not be possible to 
complete a nation-wide database at this time, but he did 
not think it necessary since he expected incidents of 
"inter-state" multiple registrations to be few.  INEC does 
not plan to release the register for inspection until after 
the electronic state and local databases have been 
compiled.  (COMMENT: Guobadia's reliance on the corrective 
properties of the thumb print analysis may be overly 
optimistic.  It is uncertain whether every state possesses 
the computer equipment for such a venture and it is likely 
poorly trained registration officials made numerous 
mistakes in taking registrants' fingerprints.  END 
COMMENT.) 
 
 
7.  (C) Ambassador Jeter stressed that the perception of 
serious under-registration could undermine legitimacy of 
the entire election.  He suggested INEC consider an 
extended registration period if problems proved wide- 
spread.  Guobadia said INEC would extend the registration 
period, but those who claimed inability to register would 
have to prove their claims to INEC.  Regardless of any 
extension of the registration process, the elections would 
take place between March 29 and April 29, 2003 as required 
by law.  Regarding the registration of new political 
parties, Guobadia said if the courts had not settled the 
dispute before December 29, then only the six existing 
parties would be able to take part in the election. 
(COMMENT: Guobadia's remark about the December 29 deadline 
is very bureaucratic and shows a lack of appreciation of 
the role of the courts.  It will be the Supreme Court's 
verdict, not INEC's, that will determine if additional 
parties will participate.  Ultimately, if the Supreme Court 
rules that INEC must accept the registration of additional 
parties, INEC will have to do so regardless of its 
bureaucratic deadlines.  END COMMENT.) 
 
 
8.  (C) Guobadia said INEC was doing everything possible to 
pressure law enforcement authorities to investigate claims 
of registration fraud and theft of registration materials. 
He emphasized the existence of severe penalties for 
violating election laws, but admitted that INEC, itself, 
was dependent upon law enforcement officials to enforce 
election law. 
 
 
9.  (C) While Guobadia said he welcomed the participation 
of Nigerian civil society groups in the election process, 
he did not think it was INEC's responsibility to provide 
them with training in election monitoring or assistance. 
INEC plans to produce a best practices manual for such 
organizations.  He also noted that only one group, the 
National Committee for Justice, Peace and Development, 
assisted INEC during the registration process. 
 
 
10.  (C) On the question of the participation of 
international observers in the election, Guobadia said the 
Foreign Ministry would issue invitations no later than two 
months before the election date.  He believed the 
invitations would go out well before that deadline. 
 
 
11.  (C) When asked by Ambassador Jeter about INEC's 
budget, Guobadia noted that INEC had problems obtaining 
funding from the government.  19.5 billion Naira (USD 154 
million) to finance the election were included in the 
National Assembly's budget, however, only the 7 billion 
Naira (USD 55 million) allocated for the registration 
process had been released.  He felt the GON would release 
the remainder of the funds soon, but welcomed any pressure 
the USG or any other government could bring to bare on the 
matter.  Guobadia also noted that public criticism of GON 
interference with INEC improved the GON's behavior toward 
the commission. 
 
 
12.  (C) Guobadia requested assistance in purchasing 
printed materials such as election monitoring manuals and 
in arranging training for INEC workers.  He said INEC would 
welcome any assistance in transporting materials and 
workers throughout the country and in providing 
communications equipment for INEC personnel.  INEC is also 
interested in creating a radio network to disseminate 
election results quickly. 
 
 
13.  (C) COMMENT: Guobadia's performance was predictable 
although unsatisfactory in many respects.  We were 
disappointed that he was less than forthcoming about the 
problems with voter registration, but sense that he might 
speak more openly in a more intimate setting (We will seek 
a private meeting with INEC to reinforce our concerns about 
voter registration.). Public concern regarding the 
registration will not go away simply because Guobadia wants 
it to.  Guobadia and INEC have had a slight respite from 
intense public scrutiny due to the impeachment attempt on 
President Obasanjo.  But as the impeachment drama slowly 
fades, attention will return to INEC.  INEC can repair some 
of the damage done to its credibility by demonstrating that 
it is attempting to repair the defective registration 
exercise.  The most visible fix would be to extend voter 
registration.  By reopening the process and taking other 
corrective measures, INEC can improve the voter list while 
helping to restore public confidence. 
 
 
14.  C) While INEC is behind the curve and has been marred 
by laconic performance, it is not irredeemable.  However, 
the international community must lend a helping hand for 
INEC to reach an acceptable level of performance.  The 
international community will have to concentrate sustained 
pressure on INEC, the Presidency, and the National Assembly 
to makes sure INEC does an adequate job.  Apart from 
correcting flaws in the registration, the next order of 
business may be to push the Presidency and the National 
Assembly to fund INEC properly.  We are preparing to do 
that.  END COMMENT. 
JETER