US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI4043

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 004043 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS AIT/W 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/27/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, TW, Domestic Politics 
SUBJECT: THE DPP ON THE DEFENSIVE NINE WEEKS BEFORE 
YEAR-END LOCAL ELECTIONS 
 
 
Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason(s): 1.4 (B/D) 
 
1.  (C) Summary:  With just nine weeks remaining before 
Taiwan's December 3 county magistrate/city mayor elections, 
the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is on the 
defensive because of criticism over scandals and lackluster 
government performance.  DPP candidates are trying to 
compensate for the party's credibility deficit by focusing 
their campaigns on their own individual records and voter 
appeal.  The "Three Kings and One Queen" (Premier Frank 
Hsieh, DPP Chairman Su Tseng-chang, Presidential Secretary 
General Yu Shyi-kun, and Vice President Annette Lu) are 
stumping for candidates with no apparent coordination, 
generating speculation they are using the year-end elections 
to position themselves for the 2008 presidential race. 
Meanwhile, President Chen Shui-bian and other DPP leaders 
have been hurling criticisms at new Kuomintang (KMT) Chairman 
Ma Ying-jeou in an apparent attempt to stem Ma,s surging 
popularity, the so-called "Ma Ying-jeou effect," which may 
have long coattails in the December elections.  End Summary. 
 
Taipei County is the Key Race 
--------------------------------- 
 
2.  (C) The DPP currently governs ten (eight counties and two 
cities) of the 23 jurisdictions (18 counties and 5 cities) 
being contested on December 3.  (Note: The mayoral elections 
for the two national level municipalities - Taipei City and 
Kaohsiung City - will be held in December, 2006.  End Note.) 
The DPP is the ruling party in the counties of Taipei, Ilan, 
Nantou, Changhua, Chiayi, Tainan, Kaohsiung, and Pingtung, 
and the cities of Chiayi and Tainan.  In recent weeks, some 
DPP officials have stressed the importance of the party 
retaining power in Taipei, Ilan, and Pingtung Counties -) 
Taipei because of its large population; Ilan and Pingtung 
because they are the hometowns of many DPP leaders. 
 
3.  (C) The key election for both the DPP and KMT is Taipei 
County, whose population exceeds that of Taipei City (3.7 
million to 2.6 million in 2000).  Many political operatives 
and analysts view Taipei County as pivotal to the election 
results.  One political analyst told AIT that the DPP must 
win Taipei County to avoid being labeled the overall loser of 
the December 3 elections, while the KMT must win to claim 
overall election victory.  At this early stage, the Taipei 
County race remains too close to call, with leadership in 
public opinion polls seesawing back and forth between the 
DPP's Luo Wen-jia and the KMT's Chou Hsi-wei.  Wu 
Hsiang-jung, Deputy Director of the DPP Policy Research and 
Coordinating Committee, told AIT that the DPP might lose Ilan 
County in addition to an increasingly likely defeat in Chiayi 
City.  Balancing possible losses, the DPP may pick up Yunlin 
County and possibly even Penghu County.  Races in Miaoli and 
Nantou Counties, he continued, are also close at this point. 
The DPP may have problems in tight elections, Wu explained, 
because the party,s current high level of voter 
dissatisfaction saddles the party's candidates with an 
initial vote deficit that they must overcome by relying on 
their own individual record and voter appeal.  So negative do 
some DPP candidates view the DPP's image public image that 
they do not want party leaders to visit their counties or 
cities to campaign on their behalf, fearing this will cost 
rather than win votes. 
 
A Credibility Gap 
----------------- 
 
4.  (C) Since last April, Wu told AIT, public support for the 
DPP, as indicated by the party,s internal polling, has 
declined significantly due to scandals, poor government 
performance, and constant criticism in the media.  Charges of 
corruption have been especially damaging to the party,s 
erstwhile clean government image.  Recently, the press has 
highlighted a series of alleged ruling government blunders. 
One involved DPP candidate for Taichung City Mayor and former 
Government Information Office (GIO) Director Lin Jia-lung, 
who was accused of not following proper government auditing 
procedure and thus causing a delay in distributing the 
tsunami relief aid that the GIO had collected while Lin was 
 
SIPDIS 
its Director.  While no one has accused Lin of financial 
malfeasance, he has been widely portrayed as careless and 
incompetent.  Lin is currently trailing his KMT opponent, the 
popular KMT Mayor of Taichung Jason Hu, by 30 percentage 
points in public opinion polls.  When asked whether the DPP 
has an election campaign strategy to counter this and other 
alleged missteps, DPP Party Chairman Su Tseng-chang predicted 
that voters will be understanding, and said that the DPP will 
try to convince them that &it is a glorious act to support 
the party.8  Wu was far less optimistic about Lin's chances. 
 
5.  (C) Just as the GIO tsunami relief fund scandal and the 
violent riots by Thai laborers in Kaohsiung last month were 
fading from the front pages, another controversy involving 
the ruling party attracted island-wide attention.  The press 
reported that the Examination Yuan (EY) used one of President 
Chen Shui-bian,s speeches as a test subject in a Senior 
Civil Examination for Lawyers administered by the Examination 
Yuan (EY) in late August.  This caused a large public outcry 
and opposition charges that the civil examination had 
degenerated into a propaganda tool of the DPP.  Examination 
Yuan President Yao Chia-wen, a "deep Green" independence 
fundamentalist, insisted to AIT that the EY leadership had 
nothing to do with the selection of test questions, which had 
been done solely by academic testing specialists.  DPP Caucus 
General Secretary Chen Chin-chun awkwardly defended the 
Examination Yuan,s action by arguing that these kinds of 
things &happened frequently during the rein of Chiang 
Kai-shek . . . therefore, the opposition should not make a 
fuss with trifles.8  Chen,s remarks created more public 
criticism of the ruling DPP, with many commentators and 
opposition politicians charging that the DPP has replaced its 
original identity as the party of reform and honest 
government with a &toadying culture8 that wastes 
taxpayers, money on the visits of high ranking officials. 
The NT $16.5 million (USD 550,000) temporary bridge 
constructed for President Chen and Premier Frank Hsieh's 
inspection of the Hsuehshan Tunnel in late August caused a 
public outcry and government officials scrambled to defend 
the bridge, a defense that came back to haunt the ruling 
party when highway engineers demolished the bridge last week. 
 The furor over what critics called the "currying favor" 
(ma-pi) bridge forced President Chen to cancel a visit to an 
air force base in Hsinchu County after soldiers complained to 
the media that they were barred from taking leave in order to 
rehearse for the President's visit. 
 
Where is President Chan Shui-bian? 
---------------------------------- 
 
6.  (SBU) Although the DPP is on the defensive, President 
Chen Shui-bian has tried recently to stay above the fray. 
Rather than respond to criticism, he has chosen to engage Ma 
Ying-jeou, whose popularity has continued to rise following 
his election as KMT chairman last July.  Ma,s public support 
rating stands at 65 percent according to a recent TVBS news 
channel poll, up five percent from a similar survey in May. 
 
7.  (SBU) In an apparent attempt to divert attention from the 
DPP,s troubles and stem the new KMT leader,s surging 
popularity, President Chen publicly challenged Ma to: abandon 
the KMT's &one China8 mythology and relate to contemporary 
Taiwan; cease KMT opposition tactics so that cross-Strait 
peace can move forward; and face up to the KMT party assets 
controversy and recompense Taiwan society.  If Ma will lead 
the KMT in these directions, Chen stated, this will build a 
unified Taiwan better able to resist China,s annexationist 
ambitions.  Ma politely thanked Chen for his suggestions but 
stated that he will not respond to similar messages via the 
media in the future. 
 
8.  (SBU) Other DPP leaders apparently hope to use the 
current election campaigns to generate momentum for their own 
runs for the presidency in 2008.  In late August, Vice 
President Annette Lu and DPP Chairman Su Tseng-chang held 
separate meetings with local party directors to prepare for 
the year-end elections.  Lu issued her invitation 
independently and without notifying Chairman Su,s office, 
which triggered speculation that she was trying to strengthen 
support for herself among local constituencies, since 
organizing the year-end elections is Su,s responsibility, 
not hers. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
9.  (C) Negative publicity is forcing DPP party and 
government officials to spend valuable time and political 
capital on damage control rather than focusing on the 
upcoming elections.  This is cause for concern among some 
senior DPP officials, a number of whom, from "deep Green" 
independence fundamentalist Yao Chia-wen to moderate New Tide 
faction member and DPP Deputy Secretary General Yan Wan-chin, 
have lamented to AIT the rising dissatisfaction with the DPP 
because of the series of embarrassing incidents verging on 
scandals.  After a recent KMT Central Standing Committee 
meeting, incumbent DPP Chiayi County Magistrate Chen Ming-wen 
reportedly told his colleagues that Ma Ying-jeou,s winning 
the KMT chairmanship has given KMT grassroots supporters a 
huge lift in morale, and is having a "serious negative 
impact8 on DPP chances in many closely contested elections, 
such as Chiayi.  Stating the DPP is in &an emergency 
situation in Chiayi," Chen urged DPP leaders to formulate a 
careful and comprehensive response to surge in KMT popularity 
under Ma before it is too late.  Natives of neighboring 
Tainan, including Yan Wan-chin and NSC Deputy Secretary 
General Paris Chang (Hsu-cheng) have told AIT of their 
surprise at finding support for the DPP in their hometown so 
low.  DPP Chairman Su Tseng-chang acknowledged to the press 
that DPP supporters have grown silent and are reluctant to 
admit affiliation with the party.  As a remedy, Su said, the 
party needs to discuss how to reawake voters, passion toward 
the DPP.  This may be easier said than done.  As two senior 
journalists working for pro-DPP media organizations told AIT: 
&How can one become passionate if there is nothing to be 
passionate about?8 
PAAL