US embassy cable - 05MINSK1194

C O N F I D E N T I A L MINSK 001194 
 
SIPDIS 
 
KIEV FOR USAID 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/22/15 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, PINR, BO 
SUBJECT: Single Opposition Candidate Convention Almost A 
Reality 
 
Ref: Minsk 836 
 
Classified by Ambassador George Krol for Reasons 1.4 (B,D) 
 
1.  (C) Summary:  The 10+ coalition leaders are frantically 
making the final preparations for the single candidate 
convention, which will take place in Minsk October 1-2. 
The approximately 900 delegates will select one of the four 
candidates to be the single candidate on the second day of 
the congress.  The 10+ candidates and convention organizers 
recently discussed the details of the convention with 
Ambassador, stressing they have gone to great lengths to 
make the congress an event around which all members of the 
democratic opposition could rally.  If the GOB allows the 
congress to proceed as scheduled, the election of a single 
candidate will clearly represent a positive development in 
the opposition camp, especially if they genuinely achieve 
unity.  But the hardest test remains Q can the opposition 
candidate attract support from the people.  Here the 
opposition will have to change tactics and focus more on 
establishing direct contact with voters than on organizing 
themselves.  End Summary. 
 
2.  (U) On September 26, Ambassador and Pol/Econ Chief met 
with the four candidates of the 10+ Coalition Q Anatoliy 
Lebedko, head of the United Civic Party (UCP), Sergey 
Kalyakin, head of the pro-democracy Belarusian Party of 
Communists (BPC), Stanislav Shushkevich, former head of 
state and leader of a surviving fraction of the Belarusian 
Social-Democratic Party Hramada, and Aleksandr Milinkevich, 
leader of the Belarusian Association of Resource Centers, 
who was nominated by the Green Party and the nationalist 
Belarusian Popular Front (BPF).  The candidates were 
accompanied by congress organizers and coalition leaders 
Aleksandr Bukvostov, leader of the de-registered Belarusian 
Party of Labor, and Vinchuk Vyachorka, head of the BPF. 
The 10+ coalition leaders reviewed their plans for the 
October 1-2 single candidate convention and stressed their 
intention to unite all democratic forces. 
 
 
Organizers Slowly But Surely Develop A Schedule of Events 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
 
3.  (SBU) The 10+ leaders could offer Ambassador little 
concrete information on the schedule of the congress at the 
time of their meeting, but Bukvostov was able to provide a 
general overview of events.  Activities on October 1 will 
include an election of election committee and speeches by 
congress organizers, political party leaders, NGO 
representatives, and several invited guests.  On October 2 
the program will consist of speeches prepared by the 
candidates, a session for the delegates to pose questions 
to the candidates, the election of the single candidate, a 
press conference given by the single candidate and his 
campaign team, and a music concert.  Bukvostov added that 
the organizers of the convention will be conducting press 
interviews on both days to keep local and international 
press informed of developments. 
 
4.  (SBU) The congress organizers passed to the Embassy on 
September 28 a draft agenda for the convention, which 
tracks closely with what the organizers told Ambassador two 
days earlier.  On October 1, the congress will commence at 
2pm (local time) and end at 7pm.  On October 2, the 
congress will resume its program at 9:30am, the first round 
of voting will occur at 11:30am, the second round (if 
necessary) will be at 2pm, and the congress will officially 
end around 9pm (following the music concert). 
 
5.  (U) The candidates and organizers of the convention 
announced they will be conducting a press conference at the 
Belarusian Popular Front headquarters on September 30 to 
discuss the purpose and details of the congress.  Lebedko 
expected only independent media will show up for the press 
conference. 
 
 
Voting Procedures Decided 
------------------------- 
 
6.  (U) Organizers invited around 900 people to participate 
asQelegates in the congress, although the organizers were 
still not sure how many delegates would show up for the 
event.  Delegates will include those chosen from the 
approximately 147 local conventions held throughout the 
country, NGO representatives, political party 
representatives, former members of the 12th and 13th Supreme 
Soviets, editors of democratic newspapers, and VIPs 
(national poets, writers, wives of the disappeared, etc.) 
(reftel).  The convention organizers recently decided that 
a candidate must gain 50 percent plus one vote to win the 
10+ nomination for presidential candidate in the 2006 
elections.  A runoff election will be held if none of the 
contenders receives enough votes in the first round. 
 
 
Everyone Invited to Congress, Except for GOB Officials 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
7.  (SBU) Bukvostov handed the Ambassador a personal 
invitation to the congress, and stressed all foreign 
diplomats were requested to attend the congress.  Aside 
from members of the diplomatic community, Shushkevich noted 
local independent and state press, foreign press, and 
foreign government officials were also sent invitations. 
(Note: Ambassador and the 13 EU HOMs will be attending the 
congress together to show united support for the congress 
and possibly to deter GOB-orchestrated shenanigans. 
Currently, the ambassadors' plans are to observe the 
beginning and closing ceremonies, including the election of 
the single candidate.  Post will field several Emboffs to 
cover the entire event.) 
 
8.  (SBU) Ambassador asked the organizers whether 
representatives of the government were invited to observe 
the congress.  All were reluctant to answer the question, 
but Bukvostov finally said the GOB was not invited to the 
congress because it is strictly a gathering of democratic 
forces. 
 
 
Opposition Forces Attempt To Unite 
---------------------------------- 
 
9.  (SBU) On September 27, the 10+ coalition leaders signed 
an agreement with leaders of the non-party opposition 
movement to unify forces sometime during the electoral 
process and select from among them a single candidate to 
run against President Lukashenko.  Non-party opposition 
signatories of the agreement included former Speaker of the 
Council of the Republic Alexander Voitovich, former 
National Lyceum Rector Vladimir Kolas, former MP Valery 
Frolov, and former Agricultural Minister Vasily Leonov. 
(Note: Anatoly Fyoderov, close advisor to Voitovich, 
recently told Pol/Econ Chief the selection of the single 
candidate to represent the entire opposition movement will 
occur immediately following the official registration of 
all presidential candidates, which will not take place 
until six weeks prior to election day.) 
 
10.  (SBU) Congress organizers told the Ambassador during 
their September 26 meeting the 10+ Coalition was sincerely 
interested in coordinating activities with all members of 
the opposition movement.   Shushkevich cited as proof the 
decision to grant interested leaders of the non-party 
opposition Q including Voitovich, Frolov, and Leonov Q 
delegate status to the convention.  Kalyakin noted 
Aleksandr Kozulin, head of Belarusian Social Democratic 
Party Hrmada and another likely contender for presidency, 
will not participate in the convention due to travel plans 
outside of Belarus.  (Comment: Kozulin's absence from the 
congress is not coincidental.  He consistently has been 
critical of the congress and the 10+ candidates.)  Despite 
some setbacks, the 10+ leaders were optimistic they could 
reach a real agreement on greater unity. 
 
 
Television Coverage of Congress Is Key 
-------------------------------------- 
 
11.  (SBU) Lebedko, Kalyakin, and Shushkevich emphasized 
 
the importance of gaining access to state media.  The 
convention organizers have sent letters to the state 
television stations to request they attend and broadcast 
the congress.  The 10+ leaders recognize that state media 
has portrayed the single candidate process as a farce, but 
the leaders are convinced the benefits of having the 
congress broadcast throughout Belarus outweigh the 
political costs. 
 
12.  (SBU) Kalyakin noted the 10+ leaders would be 
traveling to Moscow this week to participate in a televised 
conference on Belarus.  They hope the event will provide an 
opportunity for Russian media to carry information on the 
convention, which will reach audiences in Russia and 
perhaps in Belarus.  Shushkevich, however, said he did not 
plan on attending the conference because he believes 
Russian media has already thrown its support behind 
Lukashenko and the congress would therefore be portrayed in 
a negative manner. 
 
 
USG Assistance Requested 
------------------------ 
 
13.  (C) Kalyakin asked the Ambassador about the 
possibility of the USG providing money to the congress 
organizers for the purchase of a printing machine.  The 
machine would be used to print the coalition's own 
information bulletins about the single candidate process 
and convention.  Ambassador advised the leaders to seek 
such assistance through NGO donors (and privately advised 
them to raise it with their IRI advisor). 
 
14.  (C) Ambassador discussed with the coalition leaders 
the possibility of American journalists in Washington 
conducting an interview of opposition leaders via digital 
conferencing technology.  Holding such a press conference 
could help keep the international spotlight focused on 
Belarus.  The interview could be scheduled within the next 
several weeks.  The 10+ leaders expressed strong interest 
in the idea and thanked Ambassador for continued U.S. 
support. 
 
 
GOB Cooperative, Thus Far 
------------------------- 
 
15.  When asked to what extent Minsk city and security 
officials have cooperated with the organizers of the 
congress, the coalition leaders said the GOB has been 
unusually cooperative.  The authorities have resolved, or 
are in the process of resolving, all pending logistical and 
security issues.  However, the congress organizers and 
candidates were convinced government cooperation was based 
on ulterior motives. 
 
16.  Vyachorka and others suspected Lukashenko wanted the 
congress held in Minsk to be able to exert greater control 
over the event.  Some coalition leaders worried that the 
GOB would erect last-minute administrative or legal 
barriers to prevent the congress from taking place or 
finishing as scheduled.  Others believed the government 
will call on state-controlled organizations, such as the 
Belarusian Republican Youth Council (BRSM), to organize 
demonstrations outside the congress and possibly disrupt 
the event.   Bukvostov, who has worked closely with city 
officials on the planning of the event, attempted to 
assuage the fears of the other coalition leaders by 
reminding the group that the GOB thus far has cooperated 
fully with the congress organizers.  Bukvostov suggested 
the 10+ leaders should focus more on putting together a 
successful congress, and not on what the government might 
do to disrupt it. 
 
 
EU Approach to External Broadcasting Not The Answer 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
17.  (SBU) Vyachorka raised with Ambassador rumors that the 
EU will grant its tender for an external broadcasting 
project to foreign NGOs such as BBC, Radio Free Europe, or 
 
Deutsche Welle.  He argued the broadcasting should be 
handled by a Belarusian group Q i.e., Belarusians speaking 
to Belarusians.  Kalyakin added that a foreign group 
running a radio station would be a waste of money. 
Ambassador noted their concerns, but responded that at 
least the EU has taken steps to address the information 
vacuum. 
 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
18.  (C) The 10+ leaders have clearly been working hard to 
organize a successful and highly visible single candidate 
convention.  The question arises to what extent will the 
single candidate convention spark an interest in the 
democratic movement among the masses.  Many political 
observers, regional part and NGO leaders, and members of 
the diplomatic community have told us the single candidate 
convention clearly represents a step forward.  However, 
civil society and diplomatic interlocutors criticize the 
10+ candidates, and the democratic opposition in general, 
for not devoting enough attention to voters. 
 
19.  (C) The single candidate convention is indeed a 
positive development, representing a clear effort to 
establish unity among the opposition.  While not perfect, 
the process, facilitated by US NGOs IRI and NDI, has helped 
teach the parties the act of compromise and has given them 
valuable experience in organizing a congress.  Still, the 
next step Q reaching out to the voters Q will be the 
toughest test.  Notwithstanding GOB repression, the 
opposition has yet to establish consistent contact with 
voters and, equally important, they have yet to develop an 
attractive campaign platform.  After the congress, 
opposition must focus their efforts less on internal 
matters and courting foreign donors and more on 
implementing creative methods for rallying public support 
under the tough conditions of dictatorship. 
 
KROL