US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI4039

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 004039 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - ERIC 
BARBORIAK 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC, KMDR, KPAO, TW, Cross Strait Politics, Foreign Policy, Military Issues 
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: U.S.-CHINA-TAIWAN RELATIONS, 
U.S. ARMS PROCUREMENTS 
 
Summary:  Major Chinese-language Taipei dailies 
continued to focus their coverage September 30 on local 
politics and local scandals, but an opinion piece ran 
in the centrist "China Times" commenting on U.S. Deputy 
Assistant Secretary of Robert Zoellick's recent remarks 
in New York.  The op-ed said Zoellick's new definition 
for Washington-Beijing relations has found a new 
`stakeholder relationship' - namely: peace, dialogue, 
responsibility - for the triangular relationship 
between Washington, Beijing and Taipei.  An editorial 
and an opinion piece in the limited-circulation, pro- 
independence, English-language "Taipei Times" both 
commented on U.S. Deputy Under Secretary of Defense 
Richard Lawless' recent speech on Taiwan's blocked arms 
procurement bill.  The editorial urged Washington to be 
more creative in helping to resolve the stuck arms 
deal, while the opinion piece said Lawless' warning on 
the arms bill was unhelpful for reconciling the 
different perspectives of the pan-blue and pan-green 
camps and will make future Washington-Taipei ties even 
more complicated.  End summary. 
 
1. U.S.-China-Taiwan Relations 
 
"The New Stakeholder Relationship between the United 
States, China and Taiwan" 
 
Wu Rei-kuo, Deputy Executive Chief of the Cross-Strait 
Interflow Prospect Foundation,  commented in the 
centrist, pro-status quo "China Times" [circulation: 
400,000] (9/30): 
 
". The remarks [by U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of 
Robert Zoellick at the National Committee on United 
States-China Relations in New York] indirectly revealed 
two major changes the Bush administration has adopted 
in its second term of office in dealing with 
international affairs: 
 
"First, the United States will gradually abandon its 
`unilateralism' practices and will expand the community 
foundation for sharing and maintaining the 
international order.  Washington's self-willed 
reconstruction efforts in the post-war Iraq, including 
the matter of whether U.S. soldiers will be able to 
`withdraw [from Iraq] safely and gracefully,' have 
created irremediable damage [to its foreign relations], 
especially its rifts with the European Union.  The 
recently concluded `Six-Party Talks' and Washington's 
approach of asking the UN Security Council to step in 
to handle Iran's nuclear energy development have all 
indicated that the United States may be able to launch 
a war independently, but it is certainly incapable of 
bringing peace [to the world] single-handedly. 
 
"Second, the United States will promote a new set of 
`behavior guidelines' in the international community, 
which will serve as a criteria for [more countries] to 
share international responsibilities. . 
 
"The afore-mentioned policy changes will have a direct 
and immediate impact on the situation in the Taiwan 
Strait: 
 
"First, [Washington] will ensure `peace' in the Taiwan 
Strait: The core question concerning both sides of the 
Taiwan Strait is no longer `how to reunify or whether 
[Taiwan] can declare independence' but how to `maintain 
the status quo and guarantee peace.'  Unless Taiwan 
declares independence or foreign forces evidently step 
in the cross-Strait situation plainly, chances for 
China to use force against Taiwan have reduced 
significantly or even died out in the wake of the newly 
defined `responsible stakeholder' relationship between 
Washington and Beijing.  Same for the possibility if 
Taiwan declares independence. 
 
"Second, the cross-Strait issues have gradually turned 
`internationalized: . a consensus will be gradually 
formed among those countries or international 
organizations who are concerned about peace in the 
Taiwan Strait that disputes may be worked out via 
`multilateral participation' in the future.  Third, the 
pressure on both sides of the Taiwan Strait to resume 
dialogue will be `systemized': . under the knowledge 
that `dialogue is not tantamount to consensus,' 
pressure from the international community will force 
Beijing and Taipei to look into the necessity of 
resuming dialogue. 
 
"The new definition for Washington-Beijing relations 
has found a new `stakeholder relationship' - namely, 
peace, dialogue, responsibility - for the scalene 
triangular relationship between Washington, Beijing and 
Taipei.  If such a move was interpreted by some as a 
way for Washington to restrict or even to dominate the 
cross-Strait situation, it can also be viewed as a 
choice the United States cannot help but make in the 
face of a rapidly rising China.  ." 
 
2. U.S. Arms Procurement 
 
A) "US Must Alter Its Approach" 
 
The pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" 
[circulation: 30,000] editorialized (9/30): 
 
"A new pastime for US officials is to slam Taiwan over 
the repeated failure of the special arms procurement 
budget bill to pass.  It is understandable that 
Taiwan's supporters in the US should be frustrated over 
the pan-blue camp's efforts to thwart this important 
piece of legislation.  But simply giving Taiwanese 
politicians a tongue-lashing is not enough to make this 
issue move forward, and indeed, only exacerbates the 
problem. 
 
"The US must take concrete action to help resolve this 
issue.  That can happen with two simple steps. 
 
"The first step is to deny visas to prominent 
politicians who oppose the arms deal. .Washington must 
be resolved in demonstrating to the people of Taiwan 
that undermining US-Taiwan relations has consequences. 
But this needn't come at the expense of Taiwan itself - 
it should be those responsible for weakening US-Taiwan 
relations that pay a price. .  The pan-blues will get 
the message pretty quickly, but more importantly, so 
will the people of Taiwan. 
 
"The next step that Washington should take is very 
easy, and very specific.  The US Department of Defense 
should abandon the nave policy guideline implemented 
by former deputy secretary of defense Paul Wolfowitz in 
2003 that prevents Taiwan from helping to build the 
eight diesel-electric submarines that are in the 
special budget.  Until legislators have a tangible 
reason to support the procurement, they will oppose it. 
There are too many ideological issues involved for the 
bill to pass in its current form.  But as soon as 
lawmakers see that their constituents will be getting 
jobs and their backers contracts from the deal, it will 
begin to move forward. . 
 
"The point of all of this is that the US must be more 
creative when it addresses Taiwan's domestic political 
situation.  Having congressmen or bureaucrats shout and 
stomp their feet with frustration is ineffective, to 
put it charitably.  When US officials place blame 
anywhere - no matter how vaguely that blame is place - 
it only gives local lawmakers sticks with which to beat 
each other, furthering the divisiveness in Taiwan's 
fledgling democracy. 
 
"And that is the key point.  Taiwan has been a true 
democracy for less than a decade.  There are major 
deficiencies in the current system of government, some 
of which will take many years to address.  But the US 
has a responsibility - both in terms of realpolitik and 
ideology - to ensure that Taiwan's democracy is secure. 
To do this, it must first understand the situation 
clearly, and then take considered action which fits 
into an overall strategy for Taiwan. ." 
 
B) "US Warnings on Arms Bill Unhelpful" 
 
Philip Yang, associate professor of political science 
at National Taiwan University, wrote in the pro- 
independence, English-language "Taipei Times" 
[circulation: 30,000] (9/30): 
 
"The Pentagon's dissatisfaction with delays over the 
arms procurement bill has led it to voice inappropriate 
criticism, saying basically that if Taiwan does not buy 
weapons to defend itself, then the US has no obligation 
to defend us. . 
 
"The development of Taiwan's democracy, the dramatic 
changes in the cross-strait relationship and relations 
with the US, and the impact of China's `rising' mean 
that Taiwan's purchase of arms form the US is not a 
simple military problem, but is a complex issue that is 
critical to the security of the Taiwan Strait and the 
relationship between Taiwan, the US and China. . 
 
"The threats now coming from the US regarding Taiwan's 
inability to pass the arms procurement bill will not 
only not help reconcile the different perspectives of 
the two political camps, but will make future relations 
between Taiwan and the US even more complex. . 
 
"Because of the current political climate, propaganda 
far outweighs reasoned argument, so it seems likely 
that the proposed arms procurement bill, among other 
political decisions, must await an election for a final 
resolution." 
 
PAAL