US embassy cable - 05LIMA4261

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 LIMA 004261 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958 
TAGS: SNAR, PE 
SUBJECT:  DENSITY OF COCA CULTIVATION:  NEW MEASUREMENT 
 
REF: LIMA 02674 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1.  Eradication of coca in Peru has historically been 
measured and reported in hectares (2.47 acres).  Embassy has 
reported on an expansion in the area under coca cultivation 
in Peru: UN figures for 2004 released in May show an 
increase of 14 percent over the previous year. In addition, 
on-the-ground measurements are confirming that the densities 
of coca plants in the fields are increasing by up to 350% 
over what was once considered a norm of 40,000 
plants/hectare.  As a result of the increasing densities, 
the use of hectares to quantify eradicated coca is 
misleading and may understate the eradication efforts being 
undertaken by the GOP.  To correct this potential 
inaccuracy, DEVIDA is considering new units of measure as a 
goal for eradication.  The most likely would be the 
measurement of eradication in equivalent terms of potential 
kilograms or metric tons of cocaine production averted 
(CPA). 
END SUMMARY 
 
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SETTING A GOAL 
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2.  A meeting of the Multi-Institutional Committee, chaired 
by DEVIDA and attended by NAS, was held on September 8 to 
consider the eradication goal for 2006.  The Executive 
Director of DEVIDA, Nils Ericsson, suggested a goal of 
14,000 hectares, almost double this year's goal of 8,000 
hectares.  The subject of densities was raised because it 
has been realized that a hectare of coca in one area is not 
equal to a hectare of coca found in another.  Densities 
range from a few fields with under 40,000 plants per hectare 
to a majority of fields with well over 40,000.  During 
eradication operations in San Martin-Santa Lucia in August, 
the average densities were measured at 143% of the 40,000 
plants per hectare base once considered 100% density for the 
Huallaga area.  The 1,198 hectares that were eradicated were 
the equivalent of 1,698 hectares if density is taken into 
account. 
 
3.  A member of DEVIDA's inner council suggested that the 
goal could be set in terms of CPA.  Discussion of this 
approach made it clear that a goal of CPA put the focus of 
eradication efforts on the real goal, i.e. the denial of 
coca leaf for the manufacturing of cocaine.  An advantage of 
this approach is that it serves to shift media attention 
from sympathy for poor farmers whose hectares of coca are 
being eradicated to the focus on the reduction of cocaine 
that could have been produced from those hectares.  It would 
also encourage the GOP to eradicate in areas of high 
densities as opposed to being tempted to go after easy coca 
just for the hectare count, and it avoids the metric term, 
"hectare," that the U.S. Government and American public do 
not commonly use. 
 
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PROPOSING A FORMULA 
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4.  The Multi-Institutional Committee established a sub- 
committee to draft a detailed proposal.  This group consists 
of representatives from DEVIDA, CORAH, CADA and NAS.  A 
formula was devised by this group that uses the following 
information: the results of three 10m X 10m samples taken at 
each field to be eradicated, the extrapolation of those 
samples to arrive at the density of the entire field and the 
leaf yield of the plants in the particular valley/zone where 
the field is located based on yield studies made during the 
Breakthrough study.  The formula uses the following 
dividers: 100 kg of coca leaf equals one kg of cocaine 
paste, and cocaine paste becomes cocaine at a ratio of three 
parts paste to one part cocaine.  The formula will be 
adjusted as scientific laboratory studies refine values. 
 
5.  Following is an example of the application of the 
formula: three hectares of coca leaf are eradicated with an 
average density for the three fields of 60,000 plants, for a 
total of 180,000 plants.  40,000 plants in this valley yield 
2,000 kg of leaf. This comes to 9,000 kg of leaf in our 
example.  Since 100 kg of coca yields 1 kg of cocaine paste, 
we get 90 kg of paste.  Then, applying the 3:1 paste to 
cocaine ratio to this example, 30 kg of cocaine production 
have been averted. 
 
6. The term "hectares" will still be used as a secondary 
reference point.  It will provide longitudinal and cross- 
country comparison for USG and GOP agencies. 
 
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CONSEQUENCES FOR ALTERNATIVE DEVELOPMENT 
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7.  One concern is the impact this change in measurement to 
set the planned eradication goal would have on alternative 
development goals.  AD hectares that are voluntarily 
eradicated are often low density and small in area as they 
are part of a farmer's diversified crop.  It is possible 
that in the future, forced eradication campaigns might be 
followed by alternative development interventions with the 
goal of maintaining the area coca-free, thereby eliminating 
hectares as a goal for AD.  Indicators exist for AD that 
evaluate the level of achievement of sustainable coca 
reduction within communities as an additional measure to  AD 
successes in terms of eradicated hectares. 
 
8.  Comment: A presentation will be made to the Multi- 
Institutional Committee in two weeks outlining the details 
of this potential new measure of effectiveness for further 
decision-making.  Some might view this as a means of raising 
our eradication statistics: in fact, we believe it is a much 
more direct and useful measure of the impact of our 
programs, as our real goal is to avert cocaine from reaching 
the streets of U.S. cities. 
STRUBLE