US embassy cable - 05HALIFAX209

UNCLAS HALIFAX 000209 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, ETRD, PREL, CA, Nova Scotia 
SUBJECT: NOVA SCOTIA'S PREMIER TO STEP DOWN 
 
1.  Summary:  Nova Scotia Conservative Premier John Hamm 
announced on September 29 that he would resign as soon as the 
party finds a new leader.  End Summary. 
 
2.  Nova Scotia Premier John Hamm ended speculation about his 
political future on September 29 with his announcement that he 
was giving up the premier's job.  At age 67, Hamm has made no 
secret of the fact that he was seriously contemplating retiring 
 
SIPDIS 
from politics and sitting out the next provincial election which 
could come at any time with a minority government led by the 
Progressive Conservatives.  He told former Ambassador Cellucci 
in January that he did not want to commit to the three more 
years in office which would be required if he were to run again. 
 While the last election in 2003 left Hamm and the Conservatives 
with the most seats in the legislature, 25 of the total 52, they 
were outnumbered by the opposition, split between the New 
Democrats with their 15 seats and the Liberals with their 12. 
Acknowledging that the voters' preference was to avoid another 
immediate trip to the polls, the opposition NDP has worked out 
an informal agreement to keep Hamm's government afloat in order 
to maintain some stability and allow the Conservatives to pass 
key legislature such as provincial budgets. 
 
3.  The premier, a well-liked former country doctor, has said 
that he will stay on as leader for now until the party can find 
a replacement, which should not be too difficult.  Pundits have 
already come up with a substantial list of would-be successors 
including some cabinet ministers, nominated candidates for the 
next election and a few outside of government and politics. 
While the party executive works out the dates for a leadership 
convention, it will not take long to see who starts campaigning 
even before the starting gun sounds. 
 
4.  The change in leadership, while significant for the Nova 
Scotia Tories because of Hamm's personal popularity here, will 
have little or no impact on bilateral issues.  Any likely 
Conservative leader will continue Hamm's policies of seeking 
good relations with the U.S., and in particular with the 
Ambassador.  The provincial NDP, the party most likely to form a 
government if the Tories fail to get a majority in the next 
election, has tended to pursue policies that are significantly 
to the right of the national NDP, and is probably more 
pro-defense than many Liberals and Conservatives in other parts 
of the country.  The provincial Liberal party is in disarray and 
seems unlikely to do better than a weak third in an election, 
but even if it were to win it would pursue pro-trade and 
investment policies not too different from the Conservatives. 
 
 
HILL