US embassy cable - 05MINSK1192

UNCLAS MINSK 001192 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT ALSO FOR INR 
KIEV ALSO FOR USAID 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, PREL, BO 
SUBJECT: New Poll - Lukashenko Already Winning 
 
Refs: A) Minsk, B) Minsk 992 
 
1. (U) Summary: NOVAK released the results of its August - 
September survey and presented an analysis to Pol Chief on 
September 27.  Lukashenko's rating jumped 5 percentage 
points while the leading opposition contenders' ratings 
remained below one percent.  However, the percentage of 
those who did not know whether they would vote for 
Lukashenko increased to 46 percent.  Lukashenko, his 
government, army, state media, orthodox church, and national 
bank received high levels of trust while the independent 
media, OSCE, and NATO were distrusted the most.  The 
respondents were aware of the ethnic Poles' conflict with 
the GOB and were divided about who was to blame.  Most 
people get their information from the state-controlled TV 
and state press and very few listen to foreign broadcasts. 
End Summary. 
 
2. (U) Pol Chief met with Andrei Vardomatsky, head of the 
NOVAK polling service, on September 27.  Vardomatsky 
presented the results of his latest poll conducted 
nationwide between August 30 and September 9.  The poll 
included 1068 respondents. 
 
Lukashenko's Approval Rating Jumps 
---------------------------------- 
 
3. (U) In NOVAK's June survey, the percentage of respondents 
who would vote for Lukashenko if elections were tomorrow 
remained stagnate at 42.3 percent, but the percentage of 
those who would vote against the president dropped to 18 
percent - its lowest in two and half years (ref A).  In 
September, however, 47.8 percent of those polled would vote 
for Lukashenko and only 12.3 percent would vote against him. 
Anatoly Lebedko of the United Civil Party was a distant 
second, receiving one percent and the rest of the opposition 
receiving less than 0.5 percent.  The other 46 percent of 
respondents did not know who they would vote for or simply 
did not answer.  In an effort to gain a better understanding 
of Lukashenko's support among different demographic groups, 
NOVAK juxtaposed Lukashenko's positive ratings with the 
positive rating of Russian President Vladimir Putin. [Note: 
Putin's ratings were calculated from polling data collected 
in Russia.] 
 
4. (U) Vardomatsky focused on the respondents' age, 
education, residence, and income.  Below are the results: 
 
Income                    Lukashenko     Putin 
------                    ----------     ----- 
 
Low                         29.0(%)      51.5 
Average                     32.3         50.6 
High                        24.4         49.8 
 
Residence 
--------- 
 
Metropolis                  23.7         52.8 
Large Cities                22.5         50.8 
Small Cities                16.2         49.2 
Villages                    40.7         52.7 
 
Age 
--- 
 
18 - 35 years               11.1         57.0 
36 - 54                     18.4         48.1 
55 and older                55.8         47.1 
 
Education 
--------- 
 
Below Secondary             62.6         43.3 
General Secondary           37.4         52.4 
Secondary Special           24.1         51.6 
Higher                      17.8         55.2 
 
5.  (SBU) Comment:  It is not surprising that pensioners and 
people living in villages support Lukashenko the most. 
Retirees in Belarus receive higher pensions than those in 
Russia and on a monthly basis.  In April, the average 
pension rose eight percent and in August, Lukashenko ordered 
an 11-percent increase to approximately USD 100.  The 
pension hike is in addition to the usual benefits, such as 
pharmaceutical discounts and free access to public 
transportation.  Lukashenko's billion-dollar rural revival 
program has provided villagers with new, larger homes 
(though of bad quality), paved roads, electricity, 
communication (cellular and internet), and all other 
amenities that had previously been available only in large 
cities.  The rural revival program also provides for the 
construction of over 1500 agricultural communities with 
stadiums, fitness centers, cultural buildings, and 
businesses while collective farms are receiving large 
"loans" to modernize and buy new equipment.  His high 
approval rating indicates that Lukashenko's policies towards 
these groups have not been in vain.  End Comment. 
 
Who Can You Trust? 
------------------ 
 
6. (U) Similar to previous polls, NOVAK measured the 
respondents' level of trust in state and social institutions 
and organizations.  Government institutions remained the 
most trusted while international and independent 
organizations remained on the bottom of the list. 
 
Name                        Trust    Distrust   Hard to Say 
----                        -----    --------   ----------- 
 
Orthodox Church             77.6(%)    9.9       12.5 
Army                        72.0      17.4       10.6 
National Bank               67.9      18.0       14.1 
President                   61.9      21.5       16.6 
Belarus Government          58.3      25.1       16.5 
State-Run Mass Media        57.5      34.1        8.4 
UN                          44.6      23.3       32.1 
Non-State Mass Media        28.5      48.8       22.7 
OSCE                        22.0      34.3       43.6 
NATO                        17.0      48.5       34.5 
 
Belarusians Split On The Language Issue 
--------------------------------------- 
 
7. (U) Despite recent controversy in the opposition camp 
over the use of Russian instead of Belarusian in the soon-to- 
begin Deutsche Welle radio broadcasts (ref B), only 10.9 
percent believe the broadcasts should be in Belarusian. 
Thirty percent believe the broadcasts should be in Russian 
and 20.6 thought it should be a combination of both. 
 
KROL