US embassy cable - 05ABUJA1856

UNCLAS ABUJA 001856 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, EAID, KDEM, NI, CENSUS 
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: CENSUS DELAYED IS CENSUS DENIED 
 
REF: (A) ABUJA 1744 (B) LAGOS 1433 AND PREVIOUS 
 
1.   (U) As expected, the National Population 
Commission (NPC) requested a postponement the national 
census, which had been planned for December, explaining 
at a September 22 presentation at the Presidential 
Villa that there were delays in preparations for the 
long-awaited head count.  For example, shipments of 
census forms were not scheduled to arrive until 
December 2005 and January 2006.  NPC Chairman Sumaila 
Makila also said that training of the approximately one 
million census workers would not be completed until 
March 2006.  Given the logistical problems, President 
Obasanjo announced that the census would be held from 
March 21-25, 2006, the very end of the upcoming dry 
season.  After that date, Makila added, no further 
delays would be possible because the rains would 
prevent field operations. 
 
2.   (U) The President went on to warn all the state 
Governors (most were present at the Villa) not to 
interfere with enumeration, to encourage people to 
participate, and to provide all possible logistical 
support to the census. 
 
3.   (SBU) Comment:  The delay in conducting the census 
comes as no surprise, considering the controversy 
swirling around the head counting exercise (reftels). 
The next few months might be spent, in addition to 
working out the logistical problems, in persuading the 
Nigerian public why an accurate census is needed, in 
order to mitigate the constant boycott threats from 
multiple ethnic and religious groups.  To date, no 
effective public relations campaign has been launched. 
The census, more than merely the first head count of 
Nigerians since the fifties, is a political issue, with 
regions, religious, and ethnicities all squaring off to 
defend their own interests.  But the importance of the 
census is more than statistical:  an accurate census 
could inhibit efforts to manipulate voter registration, 
and by extension manipulate the outcome of the 2007 
elections.  End Comment. 
 
CAMPBELL